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Uncertainty Analysis In Mcp-Based Wind Resource Assessment And Energy Production Estimation, Matthew Lackner, Anthony L. Rogers, James F. Manwell

Matthew Lackner

This paper presents a mathematical framework to properly account for uncertainty in wind resource assessment and wind energy production estimation. A meteorological tower based wind measurement campaign is considered exclusively, in which measurecorrelate- predict is used to estimate the long-term wind resource. The evaluation of a wind resource and the subsequent estimation of the annual energy production (AEP) is a highly uncertain process. Uncertainty arises at all points in the process, from measuring the wind speed to the uncertainty in a power curve. A proper assessment of uncertainty is critical for judging the feasibility and risk of a potential wind …