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Species Data And Vector Modeling: Evaluating Datasets For Improved Models Of Ixodes Ricinus Tick Distribution In Europe Under A Changing Climate, Steven Jones
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
To increase capacity for monitoring and surveillance of tick-borne diseases, publicly available tick distribution and climate change datasets are required to create accurate predictive distribution models. It is difficult, however, to assess model accuracy and utility when using incomplete datasets. The more recent development of comprehensive tick databases for Europe and availability of climate change scenarios from multiple IPCC Assessment Reports allows for improved modeling efforts. Multiple tick datasets were combined and three climate change projections were compared by predicting current and future distributions of Ixodes ricinus ticks in Europe using the MaxEnt species distribution model. Overall, much of Europe …
Plague Risk In The Western United States Over Seven Decades Of Environmental Change, Colin J. Carlson, Sarah N. Bevins, Boris V. Schmid
Plague Risk In The Western United States Over Seven Decades Of Environmental Change, Colin J. Carlson, Sarah N. Bevins, Boris V. Schmid
United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications
After several pandemics over the last two millennia, the wildlife reservoirs of plague (Yersinia pestis) now persist around the world, including in the western United States. Routine surveillance in this region has generated comprehensive records of human cases and animal seroprevalence, creating a unique opportunity to test how plague reservoirs are responding to environmental change. Here, we test whether animal and human data suggest that plague reservoirs and spillover risk have shifted since 1950. To do so, we develop a new method for detecting the impact of climate change on infectious disease distributions, capable of disentangling long-term trends (signal) and …