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Simulating Autonomous Cruise Missile Swarm Behaviors In An Anti-Access Area Denial (A2ad) Environment, Kyle W. Goggins
Simulating Autonomous Cruise Missile Swarm Behaviors In An Anti-Access Area Denial (A2ad) Environment, Kyle W. Goggins
Theses and Dissertations
The increasingly sophisticated anti-access area denial (A2AD) threat imposed by the modern integrated air defense system (IADS), coupled with the decreasingly potent advantage provided by high-end stealth platforms, has prompted Air Force senior leaders to invest in radically changing the nature of air power for the year 2030 and beyond. A prominent element of this new vision is weapon swarming, which aims to address this challenge by overwhelming the IADS with huge numbers of low-cost, attritable aerial assets emboldened by autonomous capabilities. This research proposes a framework for classifying the different levels of autonomous capability along three independent dimensions—namely ability …
Wavelet Methods For Very-Short Term Forecasting Of Functional Time Series, Jared K. Nystrom
Wavelet Methods For Very-Short Term Forecasting Of Functional Time Series, Jared K. Nystrom
Theses and Dissertations
Space launch operations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (KSC/CCSFS) are complicated by unique requirements for near-real time determination of risk from lightning. Lightning forecast weather sensor networks produce data that are noisy, high volume, and high frequency time series for which traditional forecasting methods are often ill-suited. Current approaches result in significant residual uncertainties and consequentially may result in forecasting operational policies that are excessively conservative or inefficient. This work proposes a new methodology of wavelet-enabled semiparametric modeling to develop accurate and timely forecasts robust against chaotic functional data. Wavelets methods are first used to …
The Wargaming Commodity Course Of Action Automated Analysis Method, William T. Deberry
The Wargaming Commodity Course Of Action Automated Analysis Method, William T. Deberry
Theses and Dissertations
This research presents the Wargaming Commodity Course of Action Automated Analysis Method (WCCAAM), a novel approach to assist wargame commanders in developing and analyzing courses of action (COAs) through semi-automation of the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP). MDMP is a seven-step iterative method that commanders and mission partners follow to build an operational course of action to achieve strategic objectives. MDMP requires time, resources, and coordination – all competing items the commander weighs to make the optimal decision. WCCAAM receives the MDMP's Mission Analysis phase as input, converts the wargame into a directed graph, processes a multi-commodity flow algorithm on …
Characterizing Uncertainty In Correlated Response Variables For Pareto Front Optimization, Peter A. Calhoun
Characterizing Uncertainty In Correlated Response Variables For Pareto Front Optimization, Peter A. Calhoun
Theses and Dissertations
Current research provides a method to incorporate uncertainty into Pareto front optimization by simulating additional response surface model parameters according to a Multivariate Normal Distribution (MVN). This research shows that analogous to the univariate case, the MVN understates uncertainty, leading to overconfident conclusions when variance is not known and there are few observations (less than 25-30 per response). This research builds upon current methods using simulated response surface model parameters that are distributed according to an Multivariate t-Distribution (MVT), which can be shown to produce a more accurate inference when variance is not known. The MVT better addresses uncertainty in …
Computer-Based Methods For Constructing Two-Level Fractional-Factorial Experimental Designs With A Requirement Set, Steven L. Forsythe
Computer-Based Methods For Constructing Two-Level Fractional-Factorial Experimental Designs With A Requirement Set, Steven L. Forsythe
Theses and Dissertations
This dissertation developed four methodologies for computer-aided experimental design of two-level fractional factorial designs with requirement sets (DOE/RS). The requirement sets identify all the experimental factors and the appropriate interaction terms to be evaluated in the experiment. Taguchi graphs and similar manual methods provide techniques for solving the DOE/RS problem. Unfortunately, these methods are limited because they become difficult to use as the number of factors or interaction terms exceeds ten. This research showed that the DOE/RS problem belongs to a class of difficult-to-solve problems known as NP-Complete. It is the combinatorial nature of NP-Complete problems that causes them to …