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2024 Annual Estimate Of The Strategic Security Environment

Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment sets the foundation for cutting-edge research to understand the ever-evolving security environment domestically and internationally. Competition with the People’s Republic of China continues to dominate the strategic narrative, with global implications for US national interests. The Russia-Ukraine War and the deteriorating situation in the Middle East, however, present immediate and political challenges that will undoubtedly influence US military efforts abroad. At the same time, the United States faces domestic challenges in navigating civil-military relations, and the Army is working diligently to overcome institutional hurdles. The United States published its first National …

2023 Annual Estimate Of The Strategic Security Environment, Usawc Ssi

Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of …

Incels, Violence, And Masculinity: How Masculinity And Membership To Online Communities Shape Perceptions Of Violence, Meghan Scarlott

Student Theses

As online involuntary celibate (incel) forms have grown, they have become dominated by violent and misogynistic rhetoric. There have also been instances of offline violence being motivated by incel ideology and anti-feminist beliefs. Past research has established a link between inceldom and violent rhetoric through analysis of incel forum posts and activity. However, comparisons between non-incels and incels regarding masculinity and violence have rarely been conducted. We used a survey design to compare incels and non-incels on three factors: support for violence, inceldom characteristics, and internalized masculinity. Consistent with prior research, incels held more negative views of women and feminism …

Assessing Nuclear Security Risks In Pakistan, Sitara Noor

International Journal of Nuclear Security

Pakistan’s nuclear program and perceived nuclear security concerns have attracted global attention. The varying concerns range from the potential theft of nuclear weapons or materials to the unauthorized use of a nuclear device to terrorist groups taking control of the Pakistani government. The enduring debate, however, has oscillated between these doomsday scenarios and some optimistic considerations, where various quarters have shared their satisfaction over Pakistan’s nuclear security regime and its ability to deal with the emerging challenges. To address the evolving nature of these threats, Pakistan is constantly improving its nuclear security infrastructure. It has established a comprehensive legislative and …

The Theorizing Of Terrorism Within Criminology, Daren Fisher, Erin M. Kearns

Criminology and Criminal Justice Faculty Publications

Objectives. While terrorism studies were once castigated as atheoretical and unempirical, criminology has been well suited to apply theories of crime to terrorism and to then test those theories with rigorous methods and robust data. The present study takes stock of how criminologists have theorized about terrorism and tested those theories over time in 13 of the discipline’s leading journals. Methods. The study systematically examines theoretical framing, hypotheses, methodological approach, focus within criminology and criminal justice, and policy recommendations in terrorism-focused articles. Results. While terrorism has become more central within top journals, sparse attention has been paid to many criminological …

A Hollow Victory And Unending Problem: The Undying Anti-Russian Insurgency In Ukraine, Abraham Ashley

MSU Graduate Theses

This thesis uses quantitative and qualitative research methods to: (1) explore the base causes of insurgency in Ukraine, (2) examine the historical basis for Ukrainian insurgency, (3) provide historical examples of successful and unsuccessful insurgencies to contrast against Ukraine, and (4) provide recommendations for NATO and Ukrainian policy. Collectively, this project demonstrates that current Russian counterinsurgency tactics will not be successful without significant adjustment. This Ukrainian insurgency may also derail the possibility of peace in the region.

Countering Terrorism On Tomorrow’S Battlefield: Critical Infrastructure Security And Resiliency (Nato Coe-Dat Handbook 2), Sarah J. Lohmann, Lucas M. Cox, Denise Feldner, Trevor P. Helmy, Frank J. Kuzminski, Marcus Mohlin, Aleksander Olech, Wuraola Oyewusi, Gabriel T. Raicu, Silke Ruhl, Sabrina Schulz, Máté Tóth, Megan A. Ward

Monographs & Collaborative Studies

Every day, malicious actors target emerging technologies and medical resilience or seek to wreak havoc in the wake of disasters brought on by climate change, energy insecurity, and supply-chain disruptions. Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield is a handbook on how to strengthen critical infrastructure resilience in an era of emerging threats. The counterterrorism research produced for this volume is in alignment with NATO’s Warfighting Capstone Concept, which details how NATO Allies can transform and maintain their advantage despite new threats for the next two decades. The topics are rooted in NATO’s Seven Baseline requirements, which set the standard for enhancing …

Shortcut To Terrorism: Self-Radicalization And Lone- Wolf Terror Acts: A Case Study Of Indonesia, Stanislaus Riyanta

Journal of Terrorism Studies

A surprising phenomenon was observed in the lone-wolf terror terrorism that occurred in Indonesia. This is associated with the fact that the perpetrators of seven out of thirteen cases reported were exposed to radical information through social media and the internet without directly joining a terrorist group. The process involved the intensive exploration of the internet by people previously interested in radicalism content which eventually led to self-radicalization and the subsequent terror acts. Meanwhile, Fathali M Moghaddam proposed that the process of radicalization before a terror act is conducted involves six stages of action known as the staircase to terrorism. …

Law Enforcement Policy And Personnel Responses To Terrorism: Do Prior Attacks Predict Current Preparedness?, Bryce Kirk

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Terrorism has been on the mind of the American people and politicians alike since the 9/11 attacks over two decades ago. In the years since, there has been a massive shift in law enforcement priorities from community-oriented policing (COP) to homeland security-oriented policing. This was especially evident in the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shortly after the attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon in 2001, which was established to aid law enforcement entities with terrorism preparedness. While prior literature has addressed a variety of factors that have contributed to terrorism preparedness, very little research has …

Exploring Cyberterrorism, Topic Models And Social Networks Of Jihadists Dark Web Forums: A Computational Social Science Approach, Vivian Fiona Guetler

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports

This three-article dissertation focuses on cyber-related topics on terrorist groups, specifically Jihadists’ use of technology, the application of natural language processing, and social networks in analyzing text data derived from terrorists' Dark Web forums. The first article explores cybercrime and cyberterrorism. As technology progresses, it facilitates new forms of behavior, including tech-related crimes known as cybercrime and cyberterrorism. In this article, I provide an analysis of the problems of cybercrime and cyberterrorism within the field of criminology by reviewing existing literature focusing on (a) the issues in defining terrorism, cybercrime, and cyberterrorism, (b) ways that cybercriminals commit a crime in …

Terror Threat At Tokyo Olympics 2021, Daiju Wada

Japanese Society and Culture

While we witnessed collapse of Islamic State’s territorial control, Jihadists threat will continue for decades. But the real threat will not come from groups such as Al Qaeda and Islamic State but its Salafi Jihadism. Of course, the ideological threat is not visible and can never be eradicated by military actions. Cyberspace has facilitated the threat to be transnational pandemic phenomenon, as proved by inspired individuals. The backgrounds of those vary by person and this ideology performs as a detonator in driving individuals into violent terrorists.

Japan is located at the periphery of Jihadist’s interest. But Islamic State declared their …

The Evolution Of United States - Central Asian Security Policy Post-9/11: Military, Terrorism, And Cyber-Security, Shamsuddin Karimi

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Rudyard Kipling once described and wrote about the Great Game as a way to outline 19^th century great power politics in the struggle for empire in Central Asia. While Kipling’s tale of spy-craft and espionage is fiction, the political philosophy behind the story has never lost relevance. The struggle for political dominance in Central Asia continued through the twentieth century in the Cold War as well as into twenty-first century after the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. Although the great power players may have changed over the past 120 years, the importance of Central Asia has not.

This …

Toward Tweet-Mining Framework For Extracting Terrorist Attack-Related Information And Reporting, Farkhund Iqbal, Rabia Batool, Benjamin C. M. Fung, Saiqa Aleem, Ahmed Abbasi, Abdul Rehman Javed

All Works

The widespread popularity of social networking is leading to the adoption of Twitter as an information dissemination tool. Existing research has shown that information dissemination over Twitter has a much broader reach than traditional media and can be used for effective post-incident measures. People use informal language on Twitter, including acronyms, misspelled words, synonyms, transliteration, and ambiguous terms. This makes incident-related information extraction a non-trivial task. However, this information can be valuable for public safety organizations that need to respond in an emergency. This paper proposes an early event-related information extraction and reporting framework that monitors Twitter streams synthesizes event-specific …

Study On The Implementation Of The Regulations Of Terrorism Activities In Social Media, Angga Dewanto Basari, Muhammad Syauqillah, Asep Usman Ismail

Journal of Strategic and Global Studies

The legal scope of the Terrorism Law and the Information and Electronic Transactions Law in Indonesia is considered as lacking to cover the problem of cybercrime in social media. Aside from literature review, this paper is also supported by data from direct interview with the Head of Counterterrorism Special Detachment 88 (Densus 88 AT) of Indonesian National Police. The data found out that the Terrorism Law is a repressive response towards terrorism crimes that have already occured, but less preventive to future crimes. The existence of laws in Indonesia is often one step behind its crime. The difference of perception …

Asymmetric Threats: Analyzing The Future Of Nuclear Terrorism & Cyber Attacks; The Value Of Deterrence Theory For Addressing The Challenges Of Nuclear Terrorism In The Age Of 21st Century Cybersecurity, Oliver Demmert-Shelfo

Political Science & International Studies | Senior Theses

Given the rapid development and ease of access to technology, the threat of extremist organizations utilizing cyberspace as a means to target critical American strategic infrastructure is of increasing concern. The risk posed by the acquisition of fissile material, sabotage, or use of a nuclear device by an extremist organization has been exasperated due to technological development outpacing strategy. Despite policy-makers’ attempts to protect the public from cyber-attacks and nuclear terrorism, the federal policies in place have failed to account for the continual evolution of technology and the gaps in security that this advancement brings. Through examining documents from congressional …

The Rising Risk Of Terrorism In The Philippines And Natural Resource Corruption, Blair Mills

Honors Theses

As foreign fighters, who had previously traveled to the Middle East to conduct operations under the flag of ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant), return to the Philippines and other countries in Southeast Asia, they are bringing their ideologies and knowledge of terrorist operations with them. In addition to tracking the growing trend of terrorist attacks being conducted in the Philippines in the name of ISIL, it is crucial to determine how these returning fighters are gathering the funds and resources necessary to carry out these attacks and establish new terrorist cells. This question of how returning terrorists …

The Definition Of Terrorism, Duncan Gaswaga

The International Journal of Ethical Leadership

No abstract provided.

Exploring Contemporary Counterterrorism And Perspectives Of Terrorism Experts To Combat Boko Haram, Enyinaya Njoku

Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies

Within the last decade, the terrorist attacks by Boko Haram have been the topic of considerable scholarly focus; yet, there remains a lack of knowledge and understanding about the causes of failure in counterterrorism measures by the Nigerian government in Borno State. Using Wilner’s contemporary deterrence theory as the foundation, the purpose of this case study of the Nigeria Police Force (NPF) was to bridge the gap in knowledge to understand the causes of failure in counterterrorism measures by the Nigerian government and to explore alternate approaches to the counterterrorism efforts in Borno State to deter Boko Haram. Data were …

Counterterrorism Investigator Perceptions: Homegrown Violent Extremists With Mental Illness, Jeffery Brandon Perez

Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies

Terrorism endures throughout the world. Some individuals who engage in it may suffer from a cognitive disorder. For those who investigate terrorism, preconceptions exist both toward extremists and toward people with mental illness (MI). A review of the literature has shown how counterterrorism (CT) investigators perceive terrorists’ motivations, and how law enforcement perceives people with MI. In filling a gap between the two, this study aimed to research whether based on their lived experiences, do the understandings, perceptions, and attitudes of CT agents inform their biases and influence their decision-making and ultimately investigations of homegrown violent extremists (HVEs) with MI. …

Women As Nontraditional Terrorists, Giorgi Beruashvili

Honors Undergraduate Theses

Terrorist organizations have always been predominantly dominated by male members in numbers of participants, supporters, and leaders. Despite men having the majority of the roles, oftentimes the world witnesses attack executed by female terrorists which deal a substantial amount of damage to the infrastructure and the peaceful civilians surrounding them. Furthermore, the sense of unpredictability and unpreparedness from the counterterrorist forces and the general public adds up to the overall advantage women possess in the field of terrorism over men. Considering these observations, one can argue that women have grown to be far more dangerous and successful in the field …

Transportation, Terrorism And Crime: Deterrence, Disruption And Resilience, Daniel C. Goodrich, Frances L. Edwards

Mineta Transportation Institute

Abstract: Terrorists likely have adopted vehicle ramming as a tactic because it can be carried out by an individual (or “lone wolf terrorist”), and because the skills required are minimal (e.g. the ability to drive a car and determine locations for creating maximum carnage). Studies of terrorist activities against transportation assets have been conducted to help law enforcement agencies prepare their communities, create mitigation measures, conduct effective surveillance and respond quickly to attacks.

This study reviews current research on terrorist tactics against transportation assets, with an emphasis on vehicle ramming attacks. It evaluates some of the current attack strategies, and …

Current Trends In Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems: Implications For U.S. Special Operations Forces, J. Philip Craiger, Diane Maye Zorri

Publications

This paper assesses current trends in small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) technology and its applications to the Special Operations Forces (SOF) community. Of critical concern to SOF is that commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) sUAS technologies are relatively inexpensive, improving at a dramatic rate, and widely available throughout the world. Insurgents, terrorists, violent extremist organizations (VEOs) and other nefarious actors have used COTS sUAS to conduct offensive attacks as well as to develop battlefield situation awareness; these technological improvements combined with their widespread availability will require enhanced and rapidly adaptive counter-sUAS measures in the future. To understand the most current trends in the …

Terrorism In The 2020s: Examining The Global Threat Landscape, Landon W. Swearngin

MSU Graduate Theses

This thesis uses quantitative and qualitative research methods to (1) explore the global trends and trajectories of terrorism, (2) identify emerging strategic challenges, and (3) outline an opportunity analysis for U.S. counterterrorism strategy. Collectively, this project provides a strategic forecast for terrorism in the 2020s, demonstrating that terrorism is becoming increasingly dangerous, dynamic, and difficult to defeat.

Utilizing Strategic Culture As A Tool To Tailor U.S. Deterrence Policy Towards Iran, Ryan P. Taylor

MSU Graduate Theses

The geostrategic environment since the end of the Cold War has drastically changed the way United States (U.S.) policymakers develop strategies to combat a wide range of hostile threats facing the country, especially in the field of the deterrence of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs). Iran is such an actor, who poses one of the greater proliferation threats in the world and continues to commit hostile actions in the Middle East. In this post-Cold War environment, it is imperative that the United States develop a tailored deterrence strategy to meet this challenge. Past deterrence strategies popular during the bipolar era …

Identifikasi Ancaman Pci (Positif Clandestine Intelligence) Berbentuk Cyber Terrorism Terhadap Keamanan Nasional, Yudha Fernando

Jurnal Kajian Stratejik Ketahanan Nasional

Penelitian ini dilatarbelakangi oleh kewaspadaan terhadap perkembangan teknologi dunia maya yang begitu cepat sehingga menyebabkan ketergantungan padanya di hampir semua bidang. Kondisi ini berpotensi menimbulkan ancaman terhadap kemeriahan nasional kita di berbagai bidang, terutama di sektor keamanan nasional. Para peneliti mencoba mengidentifikasi ancaman Positive Clandestin Intelligence (PCI) dalam bentuk terorisme cyber pada keamanan nasional, sehingga dapat membawa para pemangku kepentingan ke tingkat pengetahuan yang lebih baik. Beberapa teori dan konsep yang digunakan peneliti terkait dengan ancaman, keamanan nasional, intelijen klandestin positif, terorisme, dan terorisme cyber (CT). Pendekatan penelitian yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah pendekatan kualitatif dan jenis penelitiannya adalah …

Conceptions About Terrorism: How Fearful Are We And How Does That Affect Us?, Rebecca Jackson

Honors Undergraduate Theses

Since the crusades, terrorism has been a form of violence used to promote some kind of agenda, whether political, social, religious or ideological (Martin 2018). With many different definitions of what constitutes terrorism, it is somewhat difficult to measure what exact impact terrorism has had globally. Attacks such as those on 9/11 in the United States and the Manchester bombings have been accepted worldwide as examples of acts of international terrorism. International terrorist attacks have lasting effects on both those directly affected as well as the larger community and beyond. Studies have shown that Americans are overly afraid of terrorism …

Evaluating The Effectiveness Of Counter-Narrative Tactics In Preventing Radicalization, Ellen Berman

Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies

The U.S. Department of State disseminates counter-radicalization information through social media but has been unable to reach users due to an inability to create engaging posts due to a lack of understanding of the interests of the general population. The purpose of this quantitative study was to assess the utility of data analytics when administering counter-radicalization social media campaigns. The population for this study were social media posts published on the Quilliam Facebook page between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018. The nonexperimental quantitative descriptive research design sought to examine the correlation between the independent variables (topic of a …

Islamic Terrorism In The United States – The Association Of Religious Fundamentalism With Social Isolation & Paths Leading To Extreme Violence Through Processes Of Radicalization., Shay Shiran

Student Theses

This exploratory study focuses on identifying motivations for religious terrorism and Islamic terrorism in the United States in particular. Terrorism is a crime of extreme violence with the end purpose of political influence. This crime is challenging to encounter for its multi-faced characteristics, the unusual motivations of its actors, and their semi-militant conduct. The hypothesis of this study asserts that religious terrorists are radicalized by passing from fundamental to extreme devout agendas, caused by isolation from the dominant society, and resulted in high potential to impose those agendas by extreme violence. Under the theoretical framework of subculture in criminology, this …

The Interplay Of Intelligence, Education, And The Media In Western Counterterrorism Strategies, Lincoln Gimnich

International and Global Studies Undergraduate Honors Theses

Terrorist activity has increased and evolved in Western societies in the twenty-first century as terrorist organizations have sought new methods to further their ideologies and goals. Counterterrorism thus requires a similar evolution that undoubtedly reverses the historic trend wherein counterterrorism has been merely reactive. Through interviews with experts, qualitative analysis of governmental publications and documents, and review of existing literature, this project explores the institutions of intelligence, education, and the media and their work within the larger counterterrorism and anti-radicalization framework of Western states. The project focuses specifically on domestic intelligence operations, intelligence sharing agreements, the United Kingdom’s Prevent strategy, …

Declaration Of The Modern Caliphate: Understanding The Importance Of Mosul To Isil, Megan Marchetti, Matthew J. Smith, Ken Wallace

Politics, Philosophy, and Legal Studies: Student Scholarship & Creative Works

This paper examines the importance of the Iraqi city of Mosul to ISIL. Special attention is given to the conquering of Mosul, ISIL's governance, and the Battle of Mosul.