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Social and Behavioral Sciences
Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)
Economic forecast, economic situation analysis, gross domestic product (GDP), policy suggestions
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Forecast Of China’S Economic Growth Rate In 2024 And Policy Suggestions, Xikang Chen, Cuihong Yang, Kunfu Zhu, Huijuan Wang, Xinru Li, Yu Zhao
Forecast Of China’S Economic Growth Rate In 2024 And Policy Suggestions, Xikang Chen, Cuihong Yang, Kunfu Zhu, Huijuan Wang, Xinru Li, Yu Zhao
Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)
In 2023, China’s economy maintained a recovery trend after the epidemic. However, the economic recovery showed the characteristics of wave-like development, and it is expected that China’s economy will grow steadily and rapidly in 2024. This study introduces a comprehensive approach to forecasting annual GDP growth, integrating input-output models, econometric models, prosperity analysis, expert insights, and scenario analysis. Reviewing China’s economic performance in 2023 and the prevailing global and domestic conditions, it is projected that China’s GDP growth rate will be around 5.3% in 2024. Based on this analysis, several policy recommendations are suggested, namely, intensifying macro-control policies for both …