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2024 Annual Estimate Of The Strategic Security Environment

Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment sets the foundation for cutting-edge research to understand the ever-evolving security environment domestically and internationally. Competition with the People’s Republic of China continues to dominate the strategic narrative, with global implications for US national interests. The Russia-Ukraine War and the deteriorating situation in the Middle East, however, present immediate and political challenges that will undoubtedly influence US military efforts abroad. At the same time, the United States faces domestic challenges in navigating civil-military relations, and the Army is working diligently to overcome institutional hurdles. The United States published its first National …

Introduction To The Special Issue, John, Lord Alderdice

New England Journal of Public Policy

This issue of the New England Journal of Public Policy, with Lord John Alderdice as the guest editor, examines how, with the advent of sophisticated technologies and AI, the conduct of wars and peacemaking in the opening decades of the twenty-first century has changed, with implications for the future of both and society at large.

A Qualitative Analysis Of White Nationalist Patriotic Discourse, Miguel Angel Vazquez

College of Science and Health Theses and Dissertations

In the last decade, the U.S. has seen a significant uptick in White nationalist ideology, particularly because individuals espousing these extremist ideologies believe their group and the U.S. are under attack by non-White groups (Osborne et al., 2019). As a result, there are prevailing narratives that are used as patriotic rallying cries that center around the desire to progress the country towards White nationalist ideals (e.g., a country for a by White people), to regress the country back to a time where White people had their own eco-system of Whiteness (i.e., the golden days), and to protect and fight for …

The Importance Of Sunni-Iraqi Support In The Rise And Fall Of Isis In Iraq, Deja Meekins

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

ISIS, a Salafi-jihadist terrorist organization stationed in the Middle East, has had its fair share of "successes" and "failures," both of which have been present in Iraq. Toward the beginning of the development of ISIS, it garnered a very powerful supporter base in Iraq. However, that has changed since then; ISIS currently, in 2024, no longer has the support of the vast majority of the Iraqi people. What is the reason for this? This research paper will seek to analyze and answer two major questions: what role does the Iraqi Sunni population play in ISIS’s trajectory of successes and failures …

Propelling Separatism Into Transnational Spaces: A Critical Analysis On The Pro-Ltte Tamil Diaspora In Canada, D.G.Niruka Sanjeewani

Journal of Terrorism Studies

Despite being less discussed, the transnational spaces of diaspora communities are often used by terror groups to achieve their ideological and political targets. Their projection of separatist claims in association with terrorist groups threatens not only the territorial control of the home state but also the security and immigration policies of the host state. Linked to these scopes, pro-Liberation Tigers of Tamil Elam (LTTE) diaspora in Canada serving as a case study in this paper to illustrate the dissemination of its separatist ideologies. In addition, this paper also analyses the current rhetoric of the Tamil diaspora for ‘federalism’ that has …

Historicising Domestic Terrorism And Boko Haram Insurgency In The North East, Nigeria: Issues And Trends, Adesola Sa Adesote, Adekunle Sunday Akande, John Ojo Abimbola

Journal of Terrorism Studies

Since the return to civil rule in 1999, Nigeria has been battling with series of violent agitations from various geo-political zones in the country. These violent agitations which have taken terror dimensions have contributed to national security threat. Terrorists’ attacks have resulted in the killings of hundreds of people and wanton destruction of property that worth billions of naira through bombings. The major thrust of this paper is to investigate the challenge of domestic terrorism with major emphasis on the activities of the dreaded militant Islamic sect, popularly known as Boko Haram since 2009. The paper argues that most of …

Scared To Give? A Look Into How Terrorism Affects The Flow Of Foreign Aid, Madelyn Jarjoura

Honors Theses

This thesis examines the role of formal ties to terrorism and its effect on foreign aid

from donor countries considered either democratic or not. I hypothesize that as more seats are occupied in a recipient country’s government by a known terrorist organization, the less total aid democratic donor countries will send to that country (vice versa for non-democratic donors). However, with stronger ties to terrorism, the more aid democratic donors will bypass through NGOs (vice versa for non-democratic donors). To test this, I used Hezbollah’s seats in Lebanon’s Parliament from the years 1995 – 2021 as a case study for …

Resource Scarcity Caused By Environmental Changes: Driving Factor In Terrorism Attacks In Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria, Amaris Bustamante

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Climate change, resource scarcity, and terrorist attacks are ever-growing crises that disproportionately impact different states. They are crises that can impact the stability and resilience of humanity in the following decades if they are not addressed and mitigated. This study addresses the impact of resource scarcity caused by climate change that can then serve as a driving force in terrorist attacks in climate-sensitive and conflict-prone states. The objective of this mixed-methods study is to identify the correlation between climate changes that lead to resource scarcity such as rainfall and surface temperatures with terrorist attacks when taking into consideration other demographic, …

A Comparative Examination Of Background Attributes, Criminogenic Factors, Status Changes, And Preparatory Activities Across Ideological And Non-Ideological Mass Shootings, Brynn Schuetter

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The overall focus of this study is the relevance of extreme ideology as a distinguishing factor underlying the motivational circumstances of mass shootings in the United States over the last few decades. Along with comparatively examining the lethality of mass shootings, background attributes, criminogenic factors, status changes, and preparatory activities are compared across ideological and non-ideological mass shooters. Data are extracted from the Extremist Crime Database (ECDB), the Bias Homicide Database (BHDB), and Schildkraut’s Database on Mass Shootings. Results highlight key differences in offenders’ experiences of personal status changes and engagement in preparatory activities prior to committing mass shootings. These …

Emerging Technologies And Terrorism: An American Perspective

Monographs & Collaborative Studies

In a world where technology is rapidly advancing and available to the masses, companies and policymakers face a daunting reality—non-state actors are using innovation for sinister purposes. While artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous systems promise enhanced threat detection, terrorist groups are exploiting these tools for recruitment and attacks. The future is concerning as AI becomes more widespread and autonomous systems and augmented reality redefine society.

A groundbreaking report is born from a collaboration between NATO COE-DAT and the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. This book unveils a grim forecast that terrorists are poised to exploit advances in artificial …

Guns, Bombs, And Pollution: Unraveling The Nexus Between Warfare, Terrorism, And Ecological Devastation In Iraq, Hogr Tarkhani

The Journal of Social Encounters

Iraq's environment has experienced significant pollution and degradation, earning it the dubious distinction of being one of the most polluted and degraded regions globally, according to the Globe Pollution Review. The past three decades of armed conflict have exacted a heavy toll on the country, resulting in widespread human suffering, including countless fatalities, injuries, and a massive displacement of people. Amidst this death and destruction, the ecosystem has also endured severe damage, and its decline carries long-lasting implications.

The environmental crisis in Iraq has been worsened by the presence of extremist groups such as the Islamic State (ISIS) and various …

A Case For Better Monitoring And Preventing Hate Crimes In The United States, Madhawa Palihapitiya, Muhammed M. Hasan, Kelsey Edmond, Jack T. Sherman, Kathryn Butterworth, Karina Zeferino

Center for Peace, Democracy and Development Publications

This report is a joint publication of the Center for Peace, Democracy, and Development (CPDD) through its conflict early warning arm, the Conflict Early Warning Analytics Program (CEWAP) and the TRUST Network (TN), which is the first conflict early warning system in the United States. CEWAP is the conflict early warning analytical hub of the TRUST Network. Together, CEWAP and the TRUST Network aim to expand the utilization of authentic community-based conflict early warning and early response through practice, research, technology development, training, and community empowerment.

This report focuses on hate crimes, hate groups and their connection to domestic extremism, …

Why Terrorism Varies In Indonesia, Titik Firawati

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation studies when, why, and how local religious conflicts escalate to campaigns of terrorist violence. To do so, I examine two most-similar cases in Indonesia: Ambon and Poso. Each experienced significant local conflict between Christians and Muslims in the early 2000s. But while a peace treaty in Ambon in 2002 was largely successful, a similar treaty in Poso failed, and violence actually escalated into an organized campaign of terrorism against Christians. To understand why violence escalated to terrorism in one case, but not the other, I conducted six months of field research, including 98 interviews with original interviews with …

What’S In A Threat: A Corpus-Based, Speech Act And Lexicogrammatical Approach To Threats In English, Natalie Raun Carter

Linguistics & TESOL Dissertations

Threats can be made without using language at all, but previous research on the language of threats is limited and primarily examines threats with a small amount of constructed data. Building on Austin (1962) and Searle (1965; 1969)’s speech act theory and using a corpus of naturally occurring data consisting of 827 threatening texts from publicly available websites and law enforcement, this dissertation determines what constitutes a threat, as well as the interdependence between words and grammar.

Pragmatically, this dissertation identifies four required felicity conditions that must be met to constitute a threat—building on those set by John Searle, Bruce …

What Makes A Radical?: An Exploration Of Sexism, Social Dominance Orientation, And Political Violence., Cassandra Atkinson

Student Research Submissions

How do sexist attitudes predict one’s likelihood of endorsing political violence? While past research identifies a link between hostile sexism and political violence, benevolent sexism has been overlooked. This article explores social dominance orientation (SDO) as a motivator to explain why individuals who hold attitudes of hostile or benevolent sexism are more likely to endorse political violence. Using survey data collected by the American National Election Studies, this article established a positive relationship between both hostile and benevolent sexism and an individual’s willingness to endorse state violence. Results also show a weak mediated relationship between SDO, hostile sexism, and endorsement …

Coverage Of Kidnapping In North-West Nigeria:An Analysis Of Daily Trust And The Guardian Newspapers, Amina Salisu Mohammed

Journal of Terrorism Studies

The study examined the coverage of kidnapping in North-West Nigeria by looking at the extent of coverage, prominence and major sources of news found in the stories in Daily Trust and The Guardian newspapers for the period of two years using content analysis research design. The findings indicated little attention to the interpretative role of the mass media, low prominence and too much reliance on Government/official news sources in reporting kidnapping in North-West Nigeria.

Keywords: Kidnapping, Terrorism, Insecurity, Coverage, Armed Banditry

Ideological Parameters For Deradicalization Programs To Measure Changes In Terrorist Ideology In Indonesia, Yudi Zulfahri, Aldi Nur Fadil Auliya

Journal of Terrorism Studies

The paper analyzes the inefficiency of the Deradicalization strategy implemented by The National Counter Terrorism Agency (BNPT), causing the issue of recidivist terrorism in Indonesia. Although the occurrence of recidivism is common in various crimes, it poses unique challenges in terrorism cases, given that the government has allocated a specific budget and established a special agency, BNPT, to tackle terrorism-related issues. The high recidivism rate in terrorism cases has prompted public concern and criticism regarding the effectiveness of Deradicalization programs. Despite the ongoing debate, this paper argues that the success or failure of Deradicalization programs cannot be measured simply by …

Mass Media As Weapons In Contending Terrorism In Nigeria, Enakeno Victoria Oju

International Review of Humanities Studies

Terrorism has been of global concern in recent times. The problem is not only a great challenge and a threat to the security and stability of a nation; it hampers overall growth and development. In spite of government’s counter-terrorism interventions and responses, as well as interventions from other nations and bodies, the issue of terrorism in Nigeria appears to be rising, which calls for more holistic approaches in tackling the menace. This study is an attempt to contribute to the ongoing interventions to combat the current challenge of terrorism, particularly the Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria. The paper, therefore, attempts …

The Unyielding Menace: Investigating The Global Impact Of The Islamic State (Is) And The Rise Of Non-State Actors In Modern Security, Sohail Ahmad, Maria Jawad Khan

CBER Conference

This research paper delves into the profound impact of the Islamic State on global terrorism and security dynamics. By exploring the origins, ideology, organization, recruitment methods, and operational strategies of the Islamic State, this research unravel the intricate web that fuels its rise. Through a case study approach, the research sheds light on the global reach of the Islamic State, its vast networks, and the powerful motivations behind its actions.

Chemicals And Creeds: Cbrn Weapon Use And Religious-Based Terrorism, Nikolai Apilado

Governance: The Political Science Journal at UNLV

General theories of terrorism typically focus on economic, social, or political factors that lead to terrorist acts. Conversely, chemical, biological, radiational, and nuclear (CBRN) weapons are rarely spoken of in academic literature. Yet, these weapons are still used by terrorists in some capacity. In this paper, I argue that religion is the primary factor that influences terrorists to pursue CBRN weapons as opposed to more secular-based terrorists. This is due to the fact that religious-based terrorists are not concerned with preserving their reputation or credibility among society, as well as being so blinded by their religion that they are willing …

The Future Of Françafrique: Neocolonialism In Africa And The War On Terror, Jovan Avila, Brennan G. Quinn

Claremont-UC Undergraduate Research Conference on the European Union

Françafrique refers to the complex system of political, economic, and military relationships between France and its former colonies in Africa, characterized by neocolonialism, paternalism, and corruption. This paper aims to analyze the history and future of French geopolitical activity in Africa, including its motivations, strategies, and impacts. We first establish the background of France’s complex relationship with Africa, beginning with French colonialism in the region and decolonization. Next, we look at the period of close ties France maintained with most of its former colonies in Africa throughout the late 1900s. Additionally, we discuss the effects on French and American geopolitical …

2023 Annual Estimate Of The Strategic Security Environment, Usawc Ssi

Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of …

Disparities In Extreme Contexts: The Impact Of Gender And Mental Health Status On The Criminal Justice Outcomes Of Extremists, Andrea Corradi

Department of Criminal Justice and Criminology Faculty Publications

Purpose: While disparities in the treatment of individuals in the criminal justice system have been well-documented, due to varying political and legal contexts it is likely that disparities may differ for perpetrators of extremism. This research examines the effects of gender and mental health status on criminal justice outcomes of individuals who have been accused of committing ideologically motivated crimes in the United States. Methods: Using the Extremist Crime Database (ECDB) and logistic and ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression models, this study estimates the effects of these individual characteristics on adjudication method and sentence length, and isolates pre/post-2001 time-periods. Results: The …

Incels, Violence, And Masculinity: How Masculinity And Membership To Online Communities Shape Perceptions Of Violence, Meghan Scarlott

Student Theses

As online involuntary celibate (incel) forms have grown, they have become dominated by violent and misogynistic rhetoric. There have also been instances of offline violence being motivated by incel ideology and anti-feminist beliefs. Past research has established a link between inceldom and violent rhetoric through analysis of incel forum posts and activity. However, comparisons between non-incels and incels regarding masculinity and violence have rarely been conducted. We used a survey design to compare incels and non-incels on three factors: support for violence, inceldom characteristics, and internalized masculinity. Consistent with prior research, incels held more negative views of women and feminism …

Migration And Terrorism In Europe: A Nexus Of Two Crises, Shreya Sinha

International Journal on Responsibility

The migration surge into the borders of the European Union has become a major problem in Europe as it has led to several challenges to societal integration and political legitimacy. It is also a danger to cultural identity, domestic and labour market stability as well as internal security, such that a migrant is often perceived as a threat to European society. The first part of the paper attempts to throw light on this migration-security nexus in Europe and how migration has developed into a security issue. The second part discusses how the two crises of migration and terrorism have come …

Terrorism And Growth: Evidence From India And Egypt, Nibal Ezz Eldin Attia Nibal, Ahmed Sabry Abou Zaid

Future Journal of Social Science

The impact of terrorism is different in developed and developing countries, according to many economists. But what leads to variation in the consequences of terrorism among two developing countries? This paper takes into account two developing countries from two different continents and quantifies the impact of terrorism on GDP per capita. The data is extracted and arranged from the Global Terrorism Index (Humanity, n.d.) for India and Egypt from the years 1975-2018 and 1977-2018, respectively. A set of statistical analyses using the OLS and Newey-West method is used to examine the relationship between the variables. For India, an act of …

Assessing Nuclear Security Risks In Pakistan, Sitara Noor

International Journal of Nuclear Security

Pakistan’s nuclear program and perceived nuclear security concerns have attracted global attention. The varying concerns range from the potential theft of nuclear weapons or materials to the unauthorized use of a nuclear device to terrorist groups taking control of the Pakistani government. The enduring debate, however, has oscillated between these doomsday scenarios and some optimistic considerations, where various quarters have shared their satisfaction over Pakistan’s nuclear security regime and its ability to deal with the emerging challenges. To address the evolving nature of these threats, Pakistan is constantly improving its nuclear security infrastructure. It has established a comprehensive legislative and …

Why Islamism Failed In Syria, Ararat Kostanian

Journal of Terrorism Studies

The Arab Spring has not fulfilled the desires of millions of demonstrators in Middle East. The desires to see the expanded role of the civil society has been muted by the Islamists and particularly by the Muslim Brotherhood. The Article puts the focus on the failure of Islamism in Syria during the uprising for several reasons, such as the inability of the Muslim Brotherhood to shape a new leadership, and its rejectionist agenda that had nurtured skepticism by the opposition factions. Furthermore, the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood had been unable to change its political motivation and kept insisted on shifting the …

The Path Of Securitization: Transformation Of Free Papua Movement (Opm) Terminology From Armed Criminal Groups To Separatist And Terrorist Groups, I Putu Hadi Pradnyana

Journal of Terrorism Studies

The purpose of this study is to analyze the pattern of securitization in Papua using the speech act framework. Regarding the response to the change in status or terminology of the Free Papua Movement or Organisasi Papua Merdeka (OPM) to the Separatist Terrorist Group. The Securitization Theory of the Copenhagen School defines security as a social construction and process, not as an objective condition. This contrasts with the traditional security studies approach which defines security in terms of the threat, use, and control of military force by state actors. This research will focus on the pattern of securitization of the …

2017 Charlottesville Riots – Media Coverage Paper Media And Terrorism, Abran Bartlett-Miller, Kareem El Damanhoury

DU Undergraduate Research Journal Archive

This paper intended to dissect the similarities and differences of media coverage for a very significant recent event--the 2017 Charlottesville "Unite the Right" riots and anti-racism protests. A focal moment within this series of events is the car attack by perpetrator James Alex Fields Jr., a white-supremacist responsible for the death of one woman and countless other injuries. The analysis reflects the coverage of this event through the lens of MSNBC and Fox News, two politically contrasting domestic news sources. An emphasis on media framing, which is loosely how media is manipulated to make the consumer think about a certain …