Digital Commons Network^™

Structure Of Indiana’S Manufacturing Sector During And After The Great Recession: A Spatial Perspective, Arun K. Srinivasan, Kathleen G. Arano, Janardhanan A. Alse

Midwest Social Sciences Journal

The trend in manufacturing employment is on a downward trajectory nationally, further exacerbated by short-term fluctuations. Indiana mirrors this trend, and as such, we explore the structure of the manufacturing sector using a spatial and snapshot approach during and after the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Using two measures: (1) average firm size and (2) gap in percent of local manufacturing employment, we explain the dynamics at specific periods, viz., 2007 at the beginning of the Recession, 2009 at the trough of the Great Recession, 2014 at a point in recovery from the Great Recession, and 2016 at the endpoint for …

Recessionary Woes: Examining Economic Policies And Their Impact On Student Loan Debt And Housing Stability In The United States, Connor Recck

Senior Theses and Projects

Recessionary periods can seldom be avoided, but our modern public infrastructure has designed mechanisms to respond to these downturns. Economic policy has rapidly changed over the last 50 years, and the types of tools policymakers use have evolved with it. When looking at the Great Recession (2007-2009) and the COVID-19 recession (2020), a federal response structure was vital for the health of the macroeconomy. These recessionary periods serve as case studies for a review of economic policymaking activity in the United States since 2000. To examine the efficacy of the federal government’s fiscal and monetary infrastructure, policies focused on supporting …

Place-Based Consequences Of Person-Based Transfers, Brad J. Hershbein, Bryan A. Stuart

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Place-Based Consequences Of Person-Based Transfers: Evidence From Recessions, Brad J. Hershbein, Bryan A. Stuart

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper studies how government transfers respond to changes in local economic activity that emerge during recessions. Local labor markets that experience greater employment losses during recessions face persistent relative decreases in earnings per capita. However, these areas also experience persistent increases in transfers per capita, which offset 16 percent of the earnings loss on average. The increase in transfers is driven by unemployment insurance in the short run, and medical, retirement, and disability transfers in the long run. Our results show that nominally place-neutral transfer programs redistribute considerable sums of money to places with depressed economic conditions.

Place-Based Consequences Of Person-Based Transfers, Brad J. Hershbein

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Analysis Of Nine U.S. Recessions And Three Expansions, Ray C. Fair

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Nine U.S. recessions and three expansions are analyzed in this paper using a structural macroeconometric model. With two exceptions and one partial exception, the episodes are predicted well by the model, including the 2008-2009 recession, conditional on the actual values of the exogenous variables. The main exogenous variables are stock prices, housing prices, import prices, exports, and exogenous government policy variables. Monetary policy is endogenous. Fluctuations in stock and housing prices (housing prices after 1995) are important drivers of output fluctuations—large wealth effects on household expenditures.

Analysis Of Nine U.S. Recessions And Three Expansions, Ray C. Fair

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Nine U.S. recessions and three expansions are analyzed in this paper using a structural macroeconometric model. With two exceptions and one partial exception, the episodes are predicted well by the model, including the 2008-2009 recession, conditional on the actual values of the exogenous variables. The main exogenous variables are stock prices, housing prices, import prices, exports, and exogenous government policy variables. Monetary policy is endogenous. Fluctuations in stock and housing prices (housing prices after 1995) are important drivers of output fluctuations—large wealth effects on household expenditures. In explaining the 2008-2009 recession detailed financial variables such as credit-constraint variables are not …

The Enduring Local Harm From Recessions, Brad J. Hershbein, Bryan A. Stuart

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

What Can We Learn From The 1918 Pandemic? Careful Economics And Policy Lessons From Influenza, Brian J. Asquith

Upjohn Institute Policy Papers

Economists and policymakers have turned to the 1918 Spanish flu for guidance on the COVID-19 crisis, and some have been cheered by the example of its sharp post-pandemic economic recovery. Policymakers have also been encouraged to use lockdowns and school closures (called non-pharmaceutical interventions, or NPIs) in part by research showing that 1918’s NPIs saved lives while aiding the subsequent economic recovery. I review a wide range of research to caution that our own recovery will likely be harder and slower because of how the economy has evolved. I conclude by discussing pro-recovery policy that account for post-1918 economic changes.

The Evolution Of Local Labor Markets After Recessions, Brad J. Hershbein, Bryan A. Stuart

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper studies how U.S. local labor markets respond to employment losses that occur during recessions. Following recessions from 1973 through 2009, we find that areas that lose more jobs during the recession experience persistent relative declines in employment and population. Most importantly, these local labor markets also experience persistent decreases in the employment-population ratio, earnings per capita, and earnings per worker. Our results imply that limited population responses result in longer-lasting consequences for local labor markets than previously thought, and that recessions are followed by persistent reallocation of employment across space.

The Enduring Local Harm From Recessions, Brad J. Hershbein, Bryan A. Stuart

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Forecasting State Tax Revenues, Recessions And Their Uncertainties Using Mixed-Frequency Data, Model Averaging, Bootstrap, Roc Analysis And Machine Learning, Cheng Yang

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

In recent years models with mixed frequency have been extensively used to forecast low-frequency variables such as GDP and inflation, but we are one of the first to use this framework in state government revenue forecasting. New York State had a record of passing late budgets before. In order to facilitate budget negotiations, which often center on forecasts, we develop a Mixed-Data Sampling (MIDAS) model for revenue forecasting using jagged edge data sets in the first chapter. We forecast yearly tax revenues using monthly data on tax receipts and also two dynamic factors extracted from a set of selected monthly …

The Trajectory From School To Work: A Study Of Life Chances Of School Leavers In The United States, The United Kingdom, Germany, And Sweden, Dirk Witteveen

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

The school-to-work transition is traditionally perceived as a one-time event; moving from education to one’s first job. In response to the increased complexity within today’s relationship between education and work, the research in this dissertation takes a different approach to the study of inequality and stratification. It considers the life phase between these two institutions as a trajectory – a pathway of several years wherein school careers and work careers overlap and interact.

Given the longitudinal approach, this study starts with a comparison of patterns of school-to-work trajectories in four distinct welfare state regimes: the United States, the United Kingdom, …

Resilience And The U.S. Labor Market: A Cross-Scale Analysis On The Role Of Industrial Diversity And Specialization, Christian D. Sprague

Boise State University Theses and Dissertations

This thesis examines how the effects of industrial diversity and specialization vary across geographical scales and classification levels. The notion of a robust institutional design, in conjunction with a regional resilience framework, is used to model how diversity and modularity affect unemployment through-out economic cycles. We use fixed effects models on employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Census Bureau in all available U.S. counties from 1998-2015. Key results suggest the optimal structure of industrial composition varies across scale, namely, that fine levels of industrial diversity are beneficial at higher levels of geographical scale (regions), whereas a broad …

Essays On Money, Banking, And Finance, Duong Ngo

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

This doctoral dissertation contains three essays on the topics of money, banking, and finance.

Race, Ethnicity, And The Great Recession : A National Evaluation Of Mortgages And Subprime Lending, 2004-2010, Meghan M. O'Neil

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The dissertation analyzes multilevel models to predict mortgage origination and the allocation of subprime credit pre-and-post Great Recession. With representative samples from two full years of mortgage applications filed in the top 100 U.S. metropolitan areas, the dissertation uncovers evidence of persistent disparities by race and neighborhood minority concentration despite controls for socioeconomic, demographic, assimilation and housing variables. Mortgage outcomes varied by applicant race, neighborhood racial composition and neighborhood racial change. Findings suggest evidence of Fair Housing Act violations and disparate impacts towards minority homebuyers and minority neighborhoods. Results lend support for spatial assimilation theories in explaining much of the …

Do Recessions Accelerate Routine-Biased Technological Change? Evidence From Vacancy Postings, Brad Hershbein, Lisa B. Kahn

Brad J. Hershbein

No abstract provided.

Do Recessions Accelerate Routine-Biased Technological Change? Evidence From Vacancy Postings, Brad J. Hershbein, Lisa B. Kahn

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Demonstration And Evaluation Of The Short-Time Compensation Program In Iowa And Oregon: Final Report, Susan Houseman, Christopher J. O'Leary, Katharine G. Abraham, Frank Bennici, Susan Labin, Richard Sigman

Christopher J. O'Leary

Short-time compensation (STC) is an optional program within some state unemployment insurance (UI) systems that allows employers experiencing a temporary reduction in business to lower the average hours of employees in lieu of laying them off. Employer use of the STC option has been low in states with STC programs. We conducted demonstrations in Iowa and Oregon to evaluate the effectiveness of several interventions designed to increase employer awareness and use of STC, including disseminating information about STC to specific employers (members of the “treatment” group) over a 12-month period. The main findings support the hypothesis that lack of awareness …

Demonstration And Evaluation Of The Short-Time Compensation Program In Iowa And Oregon: Final Report, Susan Houseman, Christopher J. O'Leary, Katharine G. Abraham, Frank Bennici, Susan Labin, Richard Sigman

All Star

Short-time compensation (STC) is an optional program within some state unemployment insurance (UI) systems that allows employers experiencing a temporary reduction in business to lower the average hours of employees in lieu of laying them off. Employer use of the STC option has been low in states with STC programs. We conducted demonstrations in Iowa and Oregon to evaluate the effectiveness of several interventions designed to increase employer awareness and use of STC, including disseminating information about STC to specific employers (members of the “treatment” group) over a 12-month period. The main findings support the hypothesis that lack of awareness …

Demonstration And Evaluation Of The Short-Time Compensation Program In Iowa And Oregon: Final Report, Susan N. Houseman, Christopher J. O'Leary, Katharine G. Abraham, Frank Bennici, Susan Labin, Richard Sigman

External Papers and Reports

Short-time compensation (STC) is an optional program within some state unemployment insurance (UI) systems that allows employers experiencing a temporary reduction in business to lower the average hours of employees in lieu of laying them off. Employer use of the STC option has been low in states with STC programs. We conducted demonstrations in Iowa and Oregon to evaluate the effectiveness of several interventions designed to increase employer awareness and use of STC, including disseminating information about STC to specific employers (members of the “treatment” group) over a 12-month period. The main findings support the hypothesis that lack of awareness …

The Saving & Loan Insolvencies And The Costs Of Financial Crisis, Alexander J. Field

Economics

At the time they occurred, the savings and loan insolvencies were considered the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Contrary to what was then believed, and in sharp contrast with 2007–2009, they in fact had little macroeconomic significance. Savings and Loan (S&L) remediation cost between 2 percent and 3 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), whereas the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and the conservatorships of Fannie and Freddie actually made money for the US Treasury. But the direct cost of government remediation is largely irrelevant in judging macro significance. What matters is the cumulative output loss associated with …

Confronting Policy Challenges Of The Great Recession: Lessons For Macroeconomic Policy, Eskander Alvi Editor

Upjohn Press

This book presents several notable economists who describe the perils the economy faced during the Great Recession and the policies—some successful, others not so much—that were implemented and why. By now, economists have had nearly a decade to examine the causes and consequences of the damage wrought by the Great Recession, and to assess the ensuing efforts to right the economy. The unprecedented losses, which spread across the global economy, posed extraordinary challenges for central bankers and policymakers alike, who were forced to throw out the playbook and create new, untested means for restoring growth.

Budgeting By Priorities: Balancing Stability With Economic Responsiveness, Meagan M. Jordan, Juita-Elena (Wie) Yusuf, Somayeh Hooshmand

School of Public Service Faculty Publications

This article investigates how the budget priorities of Arkansas state government departments vary with changes in economic conditions. The Arkansas Revenue Stabilization Act (ARSA) of 1945 established a formalized method of state budgeting by priorities. State funds are allocated, meaning the funds are legally made available, according to priority levels established each year by the Governor and the General Assembly. Those allocated funds are later distributed, meaning released for spending, according to priority levels as funds become available. In this study, we ask the research question: Are departmental budget priorities driven by stability or are they responsive to economic condition? …

How Did Employee Ownership Firms Weather The Last Two Recessions?: Employee Ownership, Employment Stability, And Firm Survival In The United States: 1999-2011, Fidan Ana Kurtulus, Douglas L. Kruse

Upjohn Press

Employee ownership firms offer workers the opportunity to own a stake in the firms where they work. This affords them the ability to share in profits and have a voice in firm-related decision-making. In this comprehensive new book, Kurtulus and Kruse provide new evidence on whether employee ownership firms are better equipped to survive recessions. In particular, they focus on broad-based employee ownership, which includes ownership at all levels in the firm’s hierarchy.

Do Recessions Accelerate Routine-Biased Technological Change? Evidence From Vacancy Postings, Brad J. Hershbein, Lisa B. Kahn

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We show that skill requirements in job vacancy postings differentially increased in MSAs that were hit hard by the Great Recession, relative to less hard-hit areas, and that these differences across MSAs persist through the end of 2015. The increases are prevalent within occupations, more pronounced in the non-traded sector, driven by both within-firm upskilling and substitution from older to newer firms, accompanied by increases in capital stock, and are evident in realized employment. We argue that this evidence reflects the restructuring of production toward more skilled workers and routine-labor saving technologies, and that the Great Recession accelerated this process.

Are State Unemployment Insurance Reserves Sufficient For The Next Recession?, Christopher J. O'Leary, Kenneth J. Kline

Christopher J. O'Leary

Regular state unemployment insurance (UI) benefits are paid from state reserves held in unemployment trust fund accounts at the U.S. Treasury. Employers covered by the federal-state UI system make contributions to reserve accounts based on taxable wages. The federal government provides incentives for forward funding of benefits to support UI as an automatic macroeconomic stabilizer in the economy. However, the Great Recession exhausted UI reserves for the majority of states, and not all of them have yet replenished those reserves. Based on patterns observed over the past 40 years, in this paper we simulate the effects on state and systemwide …

Are State Unemployment Insurance Reserves Sufficient For The Next Recession?, Christopher J. O'Leary, Kenneth J. Kline

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Regular state unemployment insurance (UI) benefits are paid from state reserves held in unemployment trust fund accounts at the U.S. Treasury. Employers covered by the federal-state UI system make contributions to reserve accounts based on taxable wages. The federal government provides incentives for forward funding of benefits to support UI as an automatic macroeconomic stabilizer in the economy. However, the Great Recession exhausted UI reserves for the majority of states, and not all of them have yet replenished those reserves. Based on patterns observed over the past 40 years, in this paper we simulate the effects on state and systemwide …

Do Recessions Accelerate Routine-Biased Technological Change? Evidence From Vacancy Postings, Brad J. Hershbein, Lisa B. Kahn

Brad J. Hershbein

We show that skill requirements in job vacancy postings differentially increased in MSAs that were hit hard by the Great Recession, relative to less hard-hit areas, and that these differences across MSAs persist through the end of 2015. The increases are prevalent within occupations, more pronounced in the non-traded sector, driven by both within-firm upskilling and substitution from older to newer firms, accompanied by increases in capital stock, and are evident in realized employment. We argue that this evidence reflects the restructuring of production toward moreskilled workers and routine-labor saving technologies, and that the Great Recession accelerated this process.

Mountain Monitor - 1st Quarter 2015, Kenan Fikri, Siddharth Kulkarni

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

This analysis of employment, output, unemployment, and house prices finds that the 10 major metropolitan areas of the Mountain West, despite significant economic headwinds, weathered the first quarter of 2015 with robust economic growth. Eight of the region’s 10 major metro areas advanced on all four metrics of economic performance, and the remaining two metro areas slipped only on a single front.

The national economic slowdown that arrived in early 2015 did not entirely bypass the Mountain West, but the region resisted the drag better than any other. As U.S. economic output contracted by 0.3 percent in the first quarter, …