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Follow The Leader? Presidential Approval, Presidential Support, And Representatives' Electoral Fortunes, Paul Gronke, Jeffrey Koch, J. Matthew Wilson

Political Science Research

While the link between presidential approval and congressional election outcomes is long established, scholars have generally ignored the role of a member’s own voting record in mediating these effects. If voters truly use the congressional ballot to express support or opposition toward the President, then they should not reward or punish all of his fellow partisans equally. Instead, the degree of reward or punishment meted out by voters ought to depend on the member’s level of support for the president’s legislative initiatives. Using data from the 1993, 1994, and 1996 National Election Studies, we demonstrate two key points: that representatives’ …