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Modeling Negotiations Over Water And Ecosystem Management: Uncertainty And Political Viability, Rachael E. Goodhue, Susan Stratton Sayre, Leo K. Simon
Modeling Negotiations Over Water And Ecosystem Management: Uncertainty And Political Viability, Rachael E. Goodhue, Susan Stratton Sayre, Leo K. Simon
Economics: Faculty Publications
We present a modeling approach for generating robust predictions about how changes in institutional, economic, and political considerations will influence the outcome of political negotiations over complex water-ecosystem policy debates. Evaluating the political viability of proposed policies is challenging for researchers in these complex natural and political environments; there is limited information with which to map policies to outcomes to utilities or to represent the political process adequately. Our analysis evaluates the viability of policy options using a probabilistic political viability criterion that explicitly recognizes the existence of modeling uncertainty. The approach is used to conduct a detailed case study …
Gulf Arab Financial Flows And Investment, 2000-2010: Promises, Process And Prospects In The Mena Region, Karen Pfeifer
Gulf Arab Financial Flows And Investment, 2000-2010: Promises, Process And Prospects In The Mena Region, Karen Pfeifer
Economics: Faculty Publications
The Gulf Arab countries were promoted as dynamic, rapidly growing and self-transforming economies in the boom years of the 2000s, and were praised for their purported leadership of the MENA regional economy. As of 2010, despite the severity of the financial crisis and recession of 2008-2009 in the Gulf and consequent impact on the rest of the region, the GCC countries were still promoted as potential leaders of both the recovery and future regional development. An examination of the evidence regarding the direction, magnitude and uses of GCC financial flows both domestically and internationally from 2000 to 2010 finds that …
Bargaining And Devolution In The Upper Guadiana Basin, Carmen Marchiori, Susan Stratton Sayre, Leo K. Simon
Bargaining And Devolution In The Upper Guadiana Basin, Carmen Marchiori, Susan Stratton Sayre, Leo K. Simon
Economics: Faculty Publications
Increasingly, central governments approach contentious natural resource allocation problems by devolving partial decision-making responsibility to local stakeholders. This paper conceptualizes devolution as a three-stage process and uses a simulation model calibrated to real-world conditions to analyze devolution in Spain’s Upper Guadiana Basin. The Spanish national government has proposed spending over a billion euros to reverse a 30 year decline in groundwater levels. We investigate how the government can most effectively allocate this money to improve water levels by utilizing its power to set the structure of a local negotiation process. Using a numerical Nash model of local bargaining, we find …