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Long-Term Migration Trends And Rising Temperatures: The Role Of Irrigation, Théo Benonnier, Katrin Millock, Vis Taraz
Long-Term Migration Trends And Rising Temperatures: The Role Of Irrigation, Théo Benonnier, Katrin Millock, Vis Taraz
Economics: Faculty Publications
Climate variability has the potential to affect both international and internal migration profoundly. Earlier work finds that higher temperatures reduce agricultural yields, which in turn reduces migration rates in low-income countries, due to liquidity constraints. We test whether access to irrigation modulates this temperature–migration relationship, since irrigation buffers agricultural incomes from high temperatures. We regress measures of international and internal migration on decadal averages of temperature and rainfall, interacted with country-level data on irrigation and income. We find robust evidence that, for poor countries, irrigation access significantly offsets the negative effect of increasing temperatures on internal migration, as proxied by …
Temperature And Human Capital In India, Teevrat Garg, Maulik Jagnani, Vis Taraz
Temperature And Human Capital In India, Teevrat Garg, Maulik Jagnani, Vis Taraz
Economics: Faculty Publications
We estimate the effects of temperature on human capital production in India. We show that high temperatures reduce math and reading test scores among school-age children. Agricultural income is one mechanism driving this relationship— hot days during the growing season reduce agricultural yields and test scores with comparatively modest effects of hot days in the nongrowing season. The roll-out of a workfare program, by providing a safety net for the poor, substantially weakens the link between temperature and test scores. Our results imply that absent social protection programs, higher temperatures will have large negative i
Temperature And Economic Activity: Evidence From India, Anuska Jain, Róisín O'Sullivan, Vis Taraz
Temperature And Economic Activity: Evidence From India, Anuska Jain, Róisín O'Sullivan, Vis Taraz
Economics: Faculty Publications
This paper investigates the impact of temperature on economic activity in India, using state-level data from 1980–2015. We estimate that a 1 ◦C increase in contemporaneous temperature (relative to our sample mean) reduces the economic growth rate that year by 2.5 percentage points. The adverse impact of higher temperatures is more severe in poorer states and in the primary sector. Our analysis of lagged temperatures suggests that our effects are driven by the contemporaneous effect of temperature on output; we do not find evidence of a permanent impact of contemporaneous temperatures on future growth rates.
Can Farmers Adapt To Higher Temperatures? Evidence From India, Vis Taraz
Can Farmers Adapt To Higher Temperatures? Evidence From India, Vis Taraz
Economics: Faculty Publications
Projections suggest that the damages from climate change will be substantial for developing countries. Understanding the ability of households in these countries to adapt to climate change is critical in order to determine the magnitude of the potential damages. In this paper, I investigate the ability of farmers in India to adapt to higher temperatures. I use a methodology that exploits short-term weather fluctuations as well as spatial variation in long-run climate. Specifically, I estimate how damaging high temperatures are for districts that experience high temperatures more or less frequently. I find that the losses from high temperatures are lower …
The Downside Risk Of Climate Change In California’S Central Valley Agricultural Sector, Michael Hanemann, Susan Stratton Sayre, Larry Dale
The Downside Risk Of Climate Change In California’S Central Valley Agricultural Sector, Michael Hanemann, Susan Stratton Sayre, Larry Dale
Economics: Faculty Publications
Downscaled climate change projections for California, when translated into changes in irrigation water delivery and then into profit from agriculture in the Central Valley, show an increase in conventional measures of variability such as the variance. However, these increases are modest and mask a more pronounced increase in downside risk, defined as the probability of unfavorable outcomes of water supply or profit. This paper describes the concept of downside risk and measures it as it applies to outcomes for Central Valley agriculture projected under four climate change scenarios. We compare the effect of downside risk aversion versus conventional risk aversion …