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How Do Forecasts Respond To Changes In Monetary Policy?, Laurence Ball, Dean D. Croushore
How Do Forecasts Respond To Changes In Monetary Policy?, Laurence Ball, Dean D. Croushore
Economics Faculty Publications
Just as changes in atmospheric conditions affect weather forecasts, changes in monetary policy affect economic forecasts. When monetary policy shifts, forecasters change their predictions about growth and inflation. But does the economy change to the same extent that forecasts do? In this article, Laurence Ball and Dean Croushore examine forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to determine if forecasts and the economy respond in tandem or if there are significant differences.
Quantile Regression, Kevin F. Hallock, Roger Koenker
Quantile Regression, Kevin F. Hallock, Roger Koenker
Economics Faculty Publications
Quantile regression as introduced by Koenker and Bassett seeks to extend ideas of quantiles to the estimation of conditional quantile functions--models in which quantiles of the conditional distribution of the response variable are expressed as functions of observed covariates.
Economists' Publication Patterns, James E. Hartley, James Monks, Michael D. Robinson
Economists' Publication Patterns, James E. Hartley, James Monks, Michael D. Robinson
Economics Faculty Publications
The results presented in this paper give a comprehensive picture of the extent of publishing by economists. While it is obvious that the traditional emphasis on refereed journal articles captures only a part of economists' research output, to date it has been difficult to determine how large a part of that output was not being measured. This note provides the necessary perspective and presents information on the relative productivity of faculty at different institutional types and with different years of experience.
A Little Adam Smith Is A Dangerous Thing, Jonathan B. Wight
A Little Adam Smith Is A Dangerous Thing, Jonathan B. Wight
Economics Faculty Publications
Adam Smith was trying to counter medieval church theology, which held that any self-interested behavior was sinful and detrimental. Smith countered that self-interest could yield valuable outcomes for society as people pursued specialization and market trade. Much later these quotes would be used to justify the greedy and grasping personae of homo economicus, illustrating how a little Adam Smith can prove to be a dangerous thing. For example, Max Lerner in 1937 would say that Adam Smith "sanctified predatory impulses" and "gave a new dignity to greed." By the 1980s the movie Wall Street has the financial tycoon Gordon …
Does Free Trade Cause Hunger? Hidden Implications Of The Ftaa, Jonathan B. Wight
Does Free Trade Cause Hunger? Hidden Implications Of The Ftaa, Jonathan B. Wight
Economics Faculty Publications
Voluntary free trade has the potential, slowly and gradually over time, to create "general opulence" because it allows workers to acquire greater competency and specialization: in a word, workers become more productive. The creation of a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) would expand market areas and thereby potentially contribute to raising future living standards of workers. This paper seeks to analyze the theoretical basis for trade, provide an economic overview of FTAA countries, and analyze the winners and losers from trade.