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Using Linked Survey And Administrative Data To Better Measure Income: Implications For Poverty, Program Effectiveness And Holes In The Safety Net, Bruce D. Meyer, Nikolas Mittag Oct 2015

Using Linked Survey And Administrative Data To Better Measure Income: Implications For Poverty, Program Effectiveness And Holes In The Safety Net, Bruce D. Meyer, Nikolas Mittag

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We examine the consequences of underreporting of transfer programs in household survey data for several prototypical analyses of low-income populations. We focus on the Current Population Survey (CPS), the source of official poverty and inequality statistics, but provide evidence that our qualitative conclusions are likely to apply to other surveys. We link administrative data for food stamps, TANF, General Assistance, and subsidized housing from New York State to the CPS at the individual level. Program receipt in the CPS is missed for over one-third of housing assistance recipients, 40 percent of food stamp recipients, and 60 percent of TANF and …


Use Of Unemployment Insurance And Public Employment Services After Leaving Welfare, Christopher J. O'Leary Sep 2015

Use Of Unemployment Insurance And Public Employment Services After Leaving Welfare, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

In this paper I examine the rates at which adults in households recently receiving Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) become jobless, apply for and receive unemployment insurance (UI) benefits, and participate in publicly funded employment services. I also investigate the correlation of UI and employment services receipt with maintenance of self-sufficiency through return to work and independence from TANF. The analysis is based on person-level administrative program records from four of the nine largest states between 1997 and 2003. Evidence suggests that three-quarters of new TANF leavers experience joblessness within three years, and one-quarter of the newly jobless apply …


Eligibility Recertification And Dynamic Opt-In Incentives In Income-Tested Social Programs: Evidence From Medicaid/Chip, Zhuan Pei Aug 2015

Eligibility Recertification And Dynamic Opt-In Incentives In Income-Tested Social Programs: Evidence From Medicaid/Chip, Zhuan Pei

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Conventional labor supply studies assume constant eligibility monitoring of income-tested program participants, but this is not true for most programs. For example, states can allow children to enroll in Medicaid/CHIP for 12 months regardless of family income changes. A long recertification period reduces monitoring costs but is predicted to induce program participation by temporary income adjustments. However, I find little evidence of strategic behavior from the 2001 and 2004 Survey of Income and Program Participation. Given the lack of dynamic responses, I propose a framework to compute the optimal recertification period and find 12 months to be its lower bound.


Medicaid And The Labor Supply Of Single Mothers: Implications For Health Care Reform, Vincent Pohl May 2014

Medicaid And The Labor Supply Of Single Mothers: Implications For Health Care Reform, Vincent Pohl

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act expands Medicaid and introduces health insurance subsidies, thereby changing work incentives for single mothers. To undertake an ex ante policy evaluation of the employment effects of the PPACA, I structurally estimate a model of labor supply and health insurance choice exploiting existing variation in Medicaid policies. Simulations show that single mothers increase their labor supply at the extensive and the intensive margin by six and five percent, respectively. The PPACA leads to crowding-out of employer-sponsored health insurance of about 40 percent and increases single mothers' welfare by about $190 per month.


Use Of Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program Benefits By Unemployment Insurance Applicants In Michigan During The Great Recession, Christopher J. O'Leary, Kenneth J. Kline Mar 2014

Use Of Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program Benefits By Unemployment Insurance Applicants In Michigan During The Great Recession, Christopher J. O'Leary, Kenneth J. Kline

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

During the Great Recession, both the Supplementary Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and the federal-state unemployment insurance (UI) program experienced dramatic increases in participation. Using Michigan program administrative data on all SNAP (2006–2011) recipients and all UI (2001–2010) applicants, we examine SNAP use before and after UI application. Both past and future receipts of SNAP are highly negatively correlated with meeting UI income and job separation eligibility requirements. Unemployment insurance applicants with insufficient wage credits or job separations because of quitting or employer discharge are much more likely to have received SNAP in the past. Furthermore, such UI applicants are also …


Unemployment Insurance And Low-Educated Single Working Mothers Before And After Welfare Reform, H. Luke Shaefer, Liyun Wu Nov 2010

Unemployment Insurance And Low-Educated Single Working Mothers Before And After Welfare Reform, H. Luke Shaefer, Liyun Wu

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Using the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), a nationally representative, longitudinal survey, this study examines changing levels of Unemployment Insurance (UI) eligibility and benefit receipt among working low-educated single mothers, 1990–2005. It also examines changing participation in cash welfare and the Food Stamp Program (FSP). Relative to single childless women, there has been no increase in UI benefit receipt among single mothers entering a spell of unemployment in the postreform period, even though single mothers have increased their relative rates of UI eligibility. Because of declining cash assistance receipt, UI became a more common income support than cash …


Food Stamp Participation Among Adult-Only Households, David C. Ribar, Marilyn J. Edelhoch, Qiduan Liu Sep 2009

Food Stamp Participation Among Adult-Only Households, David C. Ribar, Marilyn J. Edelhoch, Qiduan Liu

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Several recent changes in the Food Stamp Program have been directed toward households without children. Some, including new work requirements for able-bodied adults without dependents (ABAWDs), were intended to promote self-sufficiency, while others, including easier application and recertification procedures, were intended to increase participation among underserved groups, such as the disabled and the elderly. Despite their relevance to policymakers, adult-only households have been examined by only a few studies. We use administrative records from South Carolina and event-history methods to investigate how spells of food stamp participation for adult-only households vary with ABAWD provisions, recertification intervals, economic conditions and other …


Welfare Reform, Saving, And Vehicle Ownership: Do Asset Limits And Vehicle Exemptions Matter?, James X. Sullivan May 2005

Welfare Reform, Saving, And Vehicle Ownership: Do Asset Limits And Vehicle Exemptions Matter?, James X. Sullivan

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper examines whether AFDC/TANF asset tests affect the asset holdings of low-educated single mothers, exploiting variation in asset limits and exemptions across states and over time. There are important reasons to examine vehicle assets in this context. For example, vehicles make up a very significant share of total wealth for poor families, and the variation in vehicle exemptions over time and across states far exceeds the variation in asset limits. Consistent with other recent research, I find little evidence that asset limits have an effect on the amount of liquid assets that single mothers hold. However, I find evidence …


Single Mothers Working At Night: Standard Work, Child Care Subsidies, And Implications For Welfare Reform, Erdal Tekin Sep 2004

Single Mothers Working At Night: Standard Work, Child Care Subsidies, And Implications For Welfare Reform, Erdal Tekin

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper estimates the effect of child care subsidies on the standard work decision of single mothers and examines whether this effect differs between welfare recipients and nonrecipients. The analysis uses data from the 1999 National Survey of America's Families. Results suggest that child care subsidy receipt is associated with a 6.9 percentage point increase in the probability of single mothers' working at standard jobs. When the effect of subsidy receipt is allowed to differ between welfare recipients and nonrecipients, results indicate that welfare recipients who are offered a child care subsidy are 14 percentage points more likely to work …


Instrumental Variable Estimates Of The Labor Market Spillover Effects Of Welfare Reform, Timothy J. Bartik Apr 2002

Instrumental Variable Estimates Of The Labor Market Spillover Effects Of Welfare Reform, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

By increasing the labor supply of welfare recipients, welfare reform may reduce wages and increase unemployment among other less-educated groups. These "spillover effects" are difficult to estimate because welfare caseloads decrease in response to improvements in the economy, which leads caseload reductions to be associated with improvements in labor market outcomes. This paper corrects for the endogeneity of caseloads by using instruments that reflect policy. The estimates suggest that welfare reform has significant spillover effects: welfare reform reduces employment of male high school dropouts, and reduces wages of single mothers and male high school dropouts.


The Effect Of Child Care Costs On The Labor Force Participation And Welfare Recipiency Of Single Mothers: Implications For Welfare Reform, Rachel Connelly, Jean Kimmel Mar 2001

The Effect Of Child Care Costs On The Labor Force Participation And Welfare Recipiency Of Single Mothers: Implications For Welfare Reform, Rachel Connelly, Jean Kimmel

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper considers the effect of child care costs on two labor market outcomes for single mothers - whether to participate in the labor market and whether to receive welfare. Hourly child care expenditures are estimated for all women in the sample (using data drawn from the 1992 and 1993 panels of the SIPP), whether or not they are currently using nonmaternal child care. These expenditures are then included as an independent variable predicting the probability of welfare recipiency and the probability of labor force participation. Results show a substantial positive effect of child care costs on welfare recipiency, with …


Examining The Effect Of Industry Trends And Structure On Welfare Caseloads, Timothy J. Bartik, Randall W. Eberts Feb 1999

Examining The Effect Of Industry Trends And Structure On Welfare Caseloads, Timothy J. Bartik, Randall W. Eberts

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Previous studies of the macro-economic determinants of welfare caseloads have had difficulty in explaining changes in welfare caseloads during the last decade or so using the simple macroeconomic measure of unemployment. Because welfare recipients will typically get entry-level jobs, employment variables that are closely related to job vacancies, such as employment growth, are also important in determining welfare caseloads, as we show empirically in this study. Recognizing that welfare recipients face more substantial barriers to employment than those who typically have more education and skills, we constructed several macro-economic variables that reflect the education requirements of industries and the predominance …


The Labor Supply Effects Of Welfare Reform, Timothy J. Bartik Jul 1998

The Labor Supply Effects Of Welfare Reform, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Will welfare reform increase unemployment and reduce wages? The answer depends in part on how much welfare reform increases labor supply. This paper considers the labor supply effects of the welfare reforms that have occurred since 1993, when President Clinton entered office with a promise to "end welfare as we know it." The paper reviews previous estimates, and provides new estimates, of how many additional labor force participants have entered the labor force due to welfare reform. I estimate that welfare reform from 1993-96 increased the U.S. labor force by between 100,000 and 300,000 persons. Between 1996, when the major …


The Use Of Profiling To Target Services In State Welfare-To-Work Programs: An Example Of Process And Implementation, Randall W. Eberts Oct 1997

The Use Of Profiling To Target Services In State Welfare-To-Work Programs: An Example Of Process And Implementation, Randall W. Eberts

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The purpose of this paper is to provide preliminary information about the design of a pilot project to test the efficacy of profiling and referring welfare-to-work participants. Welfare reform requires welfare recipients, with few exceptions, to participate in work activities and ultimately become economically self-sufficient. Welfare recipients possess a wide variation in job readiness skills, ranging from those who are ready and able to work to those who face significant barriers to employment. The challenge of the local administrator of welfare-to-work programs is to target services to those who need them the most. Yet, most programs provide the same services …


Short-Term Employment Persistence For Welfare Recipients: The "Effects" Of Wages, Industry, Occupation And Firm Size, Timothy J. Bartik Jun 1997

Short-Term Employment Persistence For Welfare Recipients: The "Effects" Of Wages, Industry, Occupation And Firm Size, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Using data from 13 years (1983-95) of the March Current Population Survey, this study examines how the types of jobs held by welfare mothers during the preceding year affects their employment and earnings at the time of the March interview. The estimates suggest that the wages of last year's job affect current employment and earnings, but the effects of wages are more modest than might be expected. The industry and occupation of last year's job make a great deal of difference, with industry being more important than occupation. The industries with the most positive effects on current employment are hospitals …


Reducing The Welfare Dependence Of Single-Mother Families: Health-Related Employment Barriers And Policy Responses, Jean Kimmel Mar 1996

Reducing The Welfare Dependence Of Single-Mother Families: Health-Related Employment Barriers And Policy Responses, Jean Kimmel

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The problem of rising health care costs and the related increased dependency on health insurance coverage has moved to the forefront of the U.S. policy agenda in recent years and was a fundamental component of President Clinton's 1992 campaign platform. However, the President's 1994 health care reform proposal was unsuccessful, and current GOP proposals to cut the rate of growth of Medicare and Medicaid spending while the eligible population and costs both continue to grow fail to address the problem of coverage. In fact, one likely side effect of the cost-shifting to private insurance carriers will be to increase the …


Using Performance Indicators To Improve The Effectiveness Of Welfare-To-Work Programs, Timothy J. Bartik Jan 1995

Using Performance Indicators To Improve The Effectiveness Of Welfare-To-Work Programs, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper argues that it is feasible to develop good indicators of the performance of a particular welfare-to-work program, office, or contractor. Performance indicators can motivate local offices, contractors, and staff to be more effective in achieving the program's goals. Performance indicators can provide information on what program strategies lead to the greatest long-run success. To be most useful, performance indicators must be simple and timely and control for factors other than the program's effectiveness that influence whether welfare recipients "succeed."