Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Articles 1 - 7 of 7
Full-Text Articles in Entire DC Network
Legal Reasoning And Scientific Reasoning, Phoebe C. Ellsworth
Legal Reasoning And Scientific Reasoning, Phoebe C. Ellsworth
Articles
In my presentation for the 2010 Meador Lectures on Rationality, I chose to compare legal reasoning and scientific reasoning. Both law and science pride themselves on the rationality of their intellectual methods and believe that those methods are designed to analyze questions and reach the correct conclusions by means of reason, free from cognitive or emotional biases. Of course, both law and science often fall short of this ideal at all levels, from the decisions about individual legal cases or scientific studies to the acceptance of general theories. In many ways, the biases that mislead legal and scientific thinkers are …
Foreword: Rulemaking, Democracy, And Torrents Of E-Mail, Nina A. Mendelson
Foreword: Rulemaking, Democracy, And Torrents Of E-Mail, Nina A. Mendelson
Articles
This Foreword is meant as an initial foray into the question of what agencies should do with mass public comments, particularly on broad questions of policy. Part I discusses the extent to which congressional control, presidential control, and agency procedures themselves can ensure that agency decisions are democratically responsive. In view of shortcomings in both congressional and presidential control, I underscore the need to focus closely on rulemaking procedures as a source of democratic responsiveness. The possibility that agencies may be systematically discounting certain public submissions raises difficulties, and I present some examples. Part II makes a preliminary case that …
Sequential Climate Change Policy, Edward A. Parson, Darshan Karwat
Sequential Climate Change Policy, Edward A. Parson, Darshan Karwat
Articles
Successfully managing global climate change will require a process of sequential, or iterative, decision‐making, whereby policies and other decisions are revised repeatedly over multiple decades in response to changes in scientific knowledge, technological capabilities, or other conditions. Sequential decisions are required by the combined presence of long lags and uncertainty in climate and energy systems. Climate decision studies have most often examined simple cases of sequential decisions, with two decision points at fixed times and initial uncertainties that are resolved at the second decision point. Studies using this formulation initially suggested that increasing uncertainty favors stronger immediate action, while the …
Useful Global-Change Scenarios: Current Issues And Challenges, Edward A. Parson
Useful Global-Change Scenarios: Current Issues And Challenges, Edward A. Parson
Articles
Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific …
The Big One, Edward A. Parson
The Big One, Edward A. Parson
Reviews
Richard Posner's Catastrophe: Risk and Response (Oxford University Press, 2004) examines four risks whose worst cases could end advanced human civilization or worse: asteroid impacts, a catastrophic chain reaction initiated in high-energy particle accelerators, global climate change, and bioterrorism. He argues that these all warrant more thought and response than they are receiving, and that they can usefully be assessed using a simple analytic framework based on cost-benefit analysis. This essay reviews knowledge of these risks and critically examines Posner's claims for a consistent analytic approach. While the conclusions that each risk merits more thought and effort appear persuasive, these …
Global-Change Scenarios: Their Development And Use, Edward A. Parson, Virginia Burkett, Karen Fisher-Vanden, David Keith, Linda Mearns, Hugh Pitcher, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Mort Webster
Global-Change Scenarios: Their Development And Use, Edward A. Parson, Virginia Burkett, Karen Fisher-Vanden, David Keith, Linda Mearns, Hugh Pitcher, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Mort Webster
Other Publications
This report examines the development and use of scenarios in global climate change applications. It considers scenarios of various types – including but not limited to emissions scenarios – and reviews how they have been developed, what uses they have served, what consistent challenges they have faced, what controversies they have raised, and how their development and use might be made more effective. The report is Synthesis & Assessment Product 2.1b of the US Climate Change Science Program. By synthesizing available literature and critically reviewing past experience, the report seeks to assist those who may be conducting, using, or commissioning …
The Problem Of Communications In Meeting The Information Requirements Of The Courts, Layman Allen
The Problem Of Communications In Meeting The Information Requirements Of The Courts, Layman Allen
Book Chapters
My remarks are addressed to one aspect of the general problem of communication involved in meeting the information requirements of the courts. It transcends merely the court; however, it is a problem throughout the legal decision-making system. The efficiency of t:ourts in processing information is just one part of a larger picture of effective communication within the legal system. Phrased broadly, the question involves discerning the optimum man-machine mix in the processing of information. Nobody can reasonably quarrel with the goal of taking the fullest possible advantage of the benefits of emerging technology, as long as objectives of greater importance …