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Using Box-Jenkins Modeling Techniques To Forecast Future Disease Burden And Identify Disease Aberrations In Public Health Surveillance Report, Larry C. Garrett
Using Box-Jenkins Modeling Techniques To Forecast Future Disease Burden And Identify Disease Aberrations In Public Health Surveillance Report, Larry C. Garrett
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The analysis of public health surveillance data to identify departures from historical patterns of disease is required to facilitate the timely identification of potential outbreaks. Using the Box-Jenkins forecasting model, this study examines the potential to predict future disease burden based upon the historical record within local public health jurisdictions. Box-Jenkins forecasting was developed as a direct result of forecast problems in the business, economic, and control-engineering applications, yet it has not been systematically examined for use with public heath surveillance data.
Box-Jenkins forecast models are constructed by stratifying 84,029 disease reports from the State of Utah by year (n …