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Level Adjusted Exponential Smoothing: A Method For Judgmentally Adjusting Exponential Smoothing Models For Planned Discontinuities, Dan Williams, Don Miller
Level Adjusted Exponential Smoothing: A Method For Judgmentally Adjusting Exponential Smoothing Models For Planned Discontinuities, Dan Williams, Don Miller
Publications and Research
Forecasters often make judgmental adjustments to exponential smoothing forecasts to account for the effects of a future planned change. While this approach may produce sound initial forecasts, it can result in diminished accuracy for forecast updates. A proposed technique lets the forecaster include policy change adjustments within an exponential smoothing model. For 20 real data series representing Virginia Medicaid expenses, initial forecasts and forecast updates are developed using the proposed technique and several alternatives, and they are updated through various simulated level shifts. The proposed technique was more accurate than the alternatives in updating forecasts when a shift in level …
The Politics Of Immigration Control In Britain And Germany: Subnational Politicians And Social Movements, Roger Karapin
The Politics Of Immigration Control In Britain And Germany: Subnational Politicians And Social Movements, Roger Karapin
Publications and Research
Political backlash against immigrant minorities and restrictive immigration policies have increased in western Europe. Most explanations of the adoption of restrictions on immigration have focused on ethnic competition for material resources and on national political factors. An alternative theory of political mobilization and restrictive policy changes argues that pressure from subnational politicians and social movement organizations and signals from dramatic anti-immigrant events such as riots lead national elites to infer that public interest in anti-immigration policies is intense enough to justify a break with liberal policies. This theory is tested against four cases in Britain and Germany, where the hypothesized …