Digital Commons Network^™

The Fiscal Sustainability Of Retiree Health Care Benefits Among New York State School Districts, Robert Bifulco, Minch Lewis, Iuliia Shybalkina

Center for Policy Research

We examine spending on retiree health care as a percentage of revenues for a sample of New York State school districts. The fiscal burden of these benefits grew from 2010 to 2021, and big city school districts have faced the largest burdens. Assuming CBO forecasts regarding growth in health care costs and continuation of recent trends in revenue growth, we project that the burden of retiree health care benefits will exceed 10 percent of revenue by 2050. Projected burdens are greatest big city and high need rural districts. We discuss cutting benefits and pre-funding as possible policy responses.

“Model Minorities” In The Classroom? Positive Evaluation Bias Towards Asian Students And Its Consequences, Ying Shi, Maria Zhu

Center for Policy Research

The fast-growing demographic group of Asian Americans is often perceived as a “model minority.” This paper establishes empirical evidence of this stereotype in the context of education and then analyzes its consequences. We show that teachers rate Asian students’ academic skills more favorably than observationally similar White students in the same class, even after accounting for test performance and behavior. This contrasts with teachers’ lower likelihood of favoring Black and Hispanic students. Notably, teachers respond to the presence of any Asian student in the classroom by exacerbating Black-White and Hispanic-White assessment gaps. This suggests that the “model minority” stereotype can …

Robust Dynamic Space-Time Panel Data Models Using Ε- Contamination: An Application To Crop Yields And Climate Change, Badi H. Baltagi, Georges Bresson, Anoop Chaturvedi, Guy Lacroix

Center for Policy Research

This paper extends the Baltagi et al. (2018, 2021) static and dynamic ε-contamination papers to dynamic space-time models. We investigate the robustness of Bayesian panel data models to possible misspecification of the prior distribution. The proposed robust Bayesian approach de-parts from the standard Bayesian framework in two ways. First, we consider the ε-contamination class of prior distributions for the model parameters as well as for the individual effects. Second, both the base elicited priors and the ε-contamination priors use Zellner (1986)’s g-priors for the variance-covariance matrices. We propose a general “toolbox” for a wide range of specifications which includes the …

Cities In A Pandemic: Evidence From China, Badi H. Baltagi, Ying Deng, Jing Li, Zhenlin Yang

Center for Policy Research

This paper studies the impact of urban density, city government efficiency, and medical resources on COVID-19 infection and death outcomes in China. We adopt a simultaneous spatial dynamic panel data model to account for (i) the simultaneity of infection and death outcomes, (ii) the spatial pattern of the transmission, (iii) the inter-temporal dynamics of the disease, and (iv) the unobserved city- and time-specific effects. We find that, while population density increases the level of infections, government efficiency significantly mitigates the negative impact of urban density. We also find that the availability of medical resources improves public health outcomes conditional on …

Beyond The Classroom: The Broader Effects Of Public Preschool Expansion On Children’S Early Educational Experiences And Early Literacy Skills, Michah Rothbart, Taryn Morrissey

Center for Policy Research

While previous research documents direct benefits of preschool for those who attend, less is known about how targeted expansions of public preschool to low-income households affects children’s early educational experiences, preschool attendance patterns, and school readiness in a broader community. This study uses administrative data from Virginia of first-time kindergarteners from 2011 to 2019 (about 630,000 students) and a discrete increase in targeted public pre-K (VPI+) to better understand the effects of expanding means-tested public preschool on patterns of prekindergarten participation and school readiness throughout the community. We find decreased probability that children in expansion districts spend no time in …

The Conditional Mode In Parametric Frontier Models, William C. Horrace, Hyunseok Jung, Yi Yang

Center for Policy Research

We survey formulations of the conditional mode estimator for technical inefficiency in parametric stochastic frontier models with normal errors and introduce new formulations for models with Laplace errors. We prove the conditional mode estimator converges pointwise to the true inefficiency value as the noise variance goes to zero. We also prove that the conditional mode estimator in the normal-exponential model achieves near-minimax optimality. Our minimax theorem implies that the worst-case risk occurs when many firms are nearly efficient, and the conditional mode estimator minimizes estimation risk in this case by estimating these small inefficiency firms as efficient. Unlike the conditional …

Lasso For Stochastic Frontier Models With Many Efficient Firms, William C. Horrace, Hyunseok Jung, Yoonseok Lee

Center for Policy Research

We apply the adaptive LASSO (Zou, 2006) to select a set of maximally efficient firms in the panel fixed-effect stochastic frontier model. The adaptively weighted L1 penalty with sign restrictions for firm-level inefficiencies allows simultaneous estimation of the maximal efficiency and firm-level inefficiency parameters, which results in a faster rate of convergence of the corresponding estimators than the least-squares dummy variable approach. We show that the estimator possesses the oracle property and selection consistency still holds with our proposed tuning parameter selection criterion. We also propose an efficient optimization algorithm based on coordinate descent. We apply the method to estimate …

Spatial Wage Curves For Formal And Informal Workers In Turkey, Badi H. Baltagi, Yusuf Soner Başkaya

Center for Policy Research

This paper estimates spatial wage curves for formal and informal workers in Turkey using individual level data from the Turkish Household Labor Force Survey (THLFS) provided by TURKSTAT for the period 2008-2014. Unlike previous studies on wage curves for formal and informal workers, we extend the analysis to allow for spatial effects. We also consider household characteristics that would affect the selection into formal employment, informal employment, and non-employment. We find that the spatial wage curve relation holds both for formal and informal workers in Turkey for a variety of specifications. In general, the wages of informal workers are more …

Bayesian Estimation Of Multivariate Panel Probits With Higher-Order Network Interdependence And An Application To Firms' Global Market Participation In Guangdong, Badi H. Baltagi, Peter H. Egger, Michaela Kesina

Center for Policy Research

This paper proposes a Bayesian estimation framework for panel-data sets with binary dependent variables where a large number of cross-sectional units is observed over a short period of time, and cross-sectional units are interdependent in more than a single network domain. The latter provides for a substantial degree of flexibility towards modelling the decay function in network neighborliness (e.g., by disentangling the importance of rings of neighbors) or towards allowing for several channels of interdependence whose relative importance is unknown ex ante. Besides the flexible parameterization of cross-sectional dependence, the approach allows for simultaneity of the equations. These features should …

The Link Between Gentrification, Children’S Egocentric Food Environment, And Obesity, Christopher Rick, Jeehee Han, Spencer Shanholtz, Amy Ellen Schwartz

Center for Policy Research

While advocates argue that gentrification changes the neighborhood food environment critical to children’s diet and health, we have little evidence documenting such changes or the consequences for their health outcomes. Using rich longitudinal, individual-level data on nearly 115,000 New York City children, including egocentric measures of their food environment and BMI, we examine the link between neighborhood demographic change (“gentrification”), children’s access to restaurants and supermarkets, and their weight outcomes. We find that children in rapidly gentrifying neighborhoods see increased access to fast food and wait-service restaurants and reduced access to corner stores and supermarkets compared to those in non-gentrifying …

Health Policy, Equity, And The Lead Poisoning Crisis: A Conversation With Dr. Mona Hanna-Attisha, Mona Hanna-Attisha

Center for Policy Research

Dr. Mona Hanna-Attisha delivered the 33rd Annual Herbert Lourie Memorial Lecture on Health Policy on Thursday, September 23, 2021. This year's lecture was titled, "Health Policy, Equity, and the Lead Poisoning Crisis: A Conversation with Dr. Mona Hanna-Attisha"

Mona Hanna-Attisha, MD, MPH, FAAP, is founder and director of the Michigan State University and Hurley Children’s Hospital Pediatric Public Health Initiative, an innovative and model public health program in Flint, Michigan.

A pediatrician, scientist, activist, and author, Dr. Hanna-Attisha has testified three times before the United States Congress and was awarded the Freedom of Expression Courage Award by PEN America. She …