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Measuring The Accuracy Of Bus Rapid Transit Forecasts, John Perry
Measuring The Accuracy Of Bus Rapid Transit Forecasts, John Perry
Journal of Public Transportation
The research of Dr. Bent Flyvbjerg in the 1990s and early 2000s showed that urban rail projects often cost more than estimated and carried fewer riders than projected, a troubling trend suggesting that the forecasts for urban rail projects were too optimistic in terms of cost and ridership. Inspired by that research, this analysis seeks to extend that framework to analyze Bus Rapid Transit (BRT). A study of forecast vs. actual costs and ridership was conducted for 19 BRT projects in the United States. From this, it was found that the cost projections for these projects tended to be quite …
The Fox And The Hedgehog: Contrasting Approaches To Anticipating The Environment, Randy Borum
The Fox And The Hedgehog: Contrasting Approaches To Anticipating The Environment, Randy Borum
Randy Borum
This article uses the ancient metaphor of the fox and the hedgehog to discuss different ways of thinking about the global security environment. He suggests that that in a complex, interconnected and rapidly changing world, more agile, adaptive, intellectually diverse fox-like approaches will be needed to anticipate and adapt to what lies ahead.