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Articles 1 - 30 of 93
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Improving Country Conflict And Peace Modeling: Datasets, Imputations, And Hierarchical Clustering, Benjamin D. Leiby
Improving Country Conflict And Peace Modeling: Datasets, Imputations, And Hierarchical Clustering, Benjamin D. Leiby
Theses and Dissertations
Many disparate datasets exist that provide country attributes covering political, economic, and social aspects. Unfortunately, this data often does not include all countries nor is the data complete for those countries included, as measured by the dataset’s missingness. This research addresses these dataset shortfalls in predicting country instability by considering country attributes in all aspects as well as in greater thresholds of missingness. First, a structured summary of past research is presented framed by a developed casual taxonomy and functional ontology. Additionally, a novel imputation technique for very large datasets is presented to account for moderate missingness in the expanded …
Reconciliation, Restoration And Reconstruction Of A Conflict Ridden Country, Muhammad S. Riaz
Reconciliation, Restoration And Reconstruction Of A Conflict Ridden Country, Muhammad S. Riaz
Theses and Dissertations
Conflict has sadly been a constant part of history. Winning a conflict and making a lasting peace are often not the same thing. While a peace treaty ends a conflict and often dictates terms from the winners’ perspective, it may not create a lasting peace. Short of unconditional surrender, modern conflict ends with a negotiated cessation of hostilities. Such accords may have some initial reconstruction agreements, but Reconciliation, Restoration and Reconstruction (RRR) is a long term process. This study maintains that to achieve a lasting peace: 1) The culture and beliefs of the conflict nation must be continuously considered and …
Indicators Of Political Instability In The Presence Of Rapid Urban And Youth Population Growth, Douglas W. Hubbard
Indicators Of Political Instability In The Presence Of Rapid Urban And Youth Population Growth, Douglas W. Hubbard
Theses and Dissertations
Large and rapidly growing cities and other urban agglomerations have the potential to become incubators of political instability. This is especially true of rapidly growing cities which are located in countries that are also experiencing high rates of growth in their youth population. Rapid growth rates put stress on urban infrastructure and other institutions, and these stresses can cause major problems for both city and national governments. Knowing when these cities and countries may be trending toward their tipping points regarding political instability will help governments and international organizations develop and implement effective strategies to mitigate the risk of instability.
Interdependent Infrastructure Recovery Using Multilayered Networks And Optimization, Brigham A. Moore
Interdependent Infrastructure Recovery Using Multilayered Networks And Optimization, Brigham A. Moore
Theses and Dissertations
Interdependent infrastructure recovery modeling and simulation are complicated due to various interdependent connections and complexities. Current efforts have identified both operational and restoration interdependency subtypes and coupling strategies that have not been integrated into one comprehensive model. This research presents a model which simultaneously integrates nine interdependency subtypes and four coupling strategies in a multi-objective format to provide the most tailorable and comprehensive network-based recovery model available. This research also created a defense-centric interdependent infrastructure database by modifying the existing CLARC database. This research then addressed assumptions regarding recovery work management in order to address the impact of work crew …
A Quantitative Argument For Autonomous Aerial Defense Overembedded Missile Systems To Thwart Cruise Threats, Andrew R. Davis
A Quantitative Argument For Autonomous Aerial Defense Overembedded Missile Systems To Thwart Cruise Threats, Andrew R. Davis
Theses and Dissertations
Given the high cost of missile defense systems, their ability to be overwhelmed, and rising tensions between the U.S. and adversaries in the Indo-Pacific region, a new modeled is proposed to investigate a new approach to missile defense. The Autonomous Aerial Defense Against Missiles (AADAM) system leverages reusable, small-scale UAVs to propose a cheaper, more effective system in defending against cruise missile threats. The aim of this system is to provide and additional layer in current missile defense strategies at lower-cost. This modeled system is found to outperform a modeled Patriot system in close-range interception of designated assets, with no …
A Coupled Hazard Simulation And Post-Disaster Resource Optimization Framework, Stephen M. Cunningham
A Coupled Hazard Simulation And Post-Disaster Resource Optimization Framework, Stephen M. Cunningham
Theses and Dissertations
Extreme events, such as natural or human-caused disasters, cause mental health stress in affected communities. While the severity of these outcomes varies based on socioeconomic standing, age group, and degree of exposure, disaster planners can mitigate potential stress-induced mental health outcomes by assessing early, intermediate, and long-term treatment interventions by social workers and psychologists. However, local and state authorities are typically underfunded, understaffed, and have ongoing health and social service obligations that constrain mitigation and response activities. A resource assignment framework is developed as a coupled-state transition and linear optimization model that assists planners in optimally allocating constrained resources and …
An Imputation Approach To Developing Alternative Futures Of Country Conflict, Zachary J. Kane
An Imputation Approach To Developing Alternative Futures Of Country Conflict, Zachary J. Kane
Theses and Dissertations
Understanding what causes countries to be in a state of violent conflict is of vital importance to developing realistic national strategies on both a regional and global scale. Given these causes, it is important to understand the effects of missing data, how to impute that data, and the interrelation between data elements. Utilizing both open source data and previously generated equations that predict a country’s likelihood to transition conflict statuses, this research projects data into the future and predicts each nations’ subsequent conflict statuses. Future data is populated using a novel approach inspired by stochastic regression imputation. The replicated future …
Water Security Issues Affecting Migration And Conflict In The Middle East, Richard E. Mard
Water Security Issues Affecting Migration And Conflict In The Middle East, Richard E. Mard
Theses and Dissertations
Iran is facing a daunting reality regarding the future of their water resources which may result in conflict and migration within the country with the potential to affect the Middle East and North African region and beyond. The country has failed to address critical preservation, risk mitigation, infrastructural, and political efforts to accommodate their rising population due to economic expansion. Water resources are dependent on social, political, economic, and environmental variables related to conflict and migration. Given the recent examples of water security issues in Syria resulting in migration and conflict, this thesis investigates the total available water per capita …
Forecasting Country Conflict Within Modified Combatant Command Regions Using Statistical Learning Methods, Sarah Neumann
Forecasting Country Conflict Within Modified Combatant Command Regions Using Statistical Learning Methods, Sarah Neumann
Theses and Dissertations
Conflict forecasts are crucial to Combatant Commanders’ understanding of the dynamic environment encompassing countries within their area of responsibility. The current structure of the Combatant Commands (COCOMs) is rooted in geography by grouping nations in geographic proximity to the same regional command. However, leaders today question the effectiveness of the current structure. A novel modified k-means clustering algorithm is developed and implemented that groups countries based on data similarities and geographic proximity resulting in new COCOM groupings that improve conflict forecasts. The data spans various political, military, economic, and social characteristics of countries, and is used to develop conditional logistic …
Refugees In Urban Environments: Social, Economic, And Infrastructure Impacts, Garrett L. Jameson
Refugees In Urban Environments: Social, Economic, And Infrastructure Impacts, Garrett L. Jameson
Theses and Dissertations
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees has estimated that in 2015 there were 21.3 million refugees worldwide; it is estimated that 1.8 million of these persons were newly displaced during 2015. As refugees leave their country to seek the protection of another nation's government, they generally flow into urban areas. The impact of this flow on cities and on the refugees, themselves, is not fully understood. This study is focused on the impact of government policy decisions on the social, legal, and economic integration of refugees within an urban environment. Investigation into this topic resulted in the development of …
A Logistic Regression And Markov Chain Model For The Prediction Of Nation-State Violent Conflicts And Transitions, Nicholas Shallcross
A Logistic Regression And Markov Chain Model For The Prediction Of Nation-State Violent Conflicts And Transitions, Nicholas Shallcross
Theses and Dissertations
Using open source data, this research formulates and constructs a suite of statistical models that predict future transitions into and out of violent conflict and forecasts the regional and global incidences of violent conflict over a ten-year time horizon. A total of thirty predictor variables are tested and evaluated for inclusion in twelve conditional logistic regression models, which calculate the probability that a nation will transition from its current conflict state, either In Conflict or Not in Conflict, to a new state in the following year. These probabilities are then used to construct a series of nation-specific Markov chain models …
Indicators Of Terrorism Vulnerability In Africa, Raymond J. Hill
Indicators Of Terrorism Vulnerability In Africa, Raymond J. Hill
Theses and Dissertations
Terrorism in Africa has increased more than six-fold since 1997, with an increase in lethality as well. The U.S. government has spent billions of dollars to counter this increase in terrorism; however, terrorism in Africa has increased seemingly unabated. Furthermore, these methods used to counter-terrorism have been reactionary as opposed to preventative. To address the terrorism threat to a country, we must first understand which characteristics make a country vulnerable to such a threat. A confirmatory analysis bridges the inter-discipline gap between quantitative and qualitative fields through as assessment of observational findings about the causes of terrorism. An exploratory analysis …
A Network Analysis Of Social Balance In Conflict In The Maghreb, Eric A. Miller
A Network Analysis Of Social Balance In Conflict In The Maghreb, Eric A. Miller
Theses and Dissertations
This work offers the U.S. military and national security structure a methodology to analyze tension within signed networks based on social balance theory, presents a process to partition a signed network to identify likely subsets within the network, and pinpoints unique actors and relationships based on the structure of the network. Relationships identified to cause increased tension within the network are discovered and analyzed. Identifying this tension provides analysts with insight into the complexities of the network and potential relationships to target to stabilize or destabilize a network. Two Social Network Analysis models have been developed analyzing the relationships of …
The Effect Of Multiple Interventions On Environmental Attitudes And Behaviors, Jeremy P. Kinne
The Effect Of Multiple Interventions On Environmental Attitudes And Behaviors, Jeremy P. Kinne
Theses and Dissertations
New federal mandates require federal entities to reduce resource usage across the board. Additionally, commercial enterprises are evaluating methods of reducing resource consumption to reduce costs and become more ecologically friendly. In response, researchers have begun to evaluate the intentions and behaviors of individuals to determine how to encourage individual participation in reduction methods. This study used a quasi-experimental design of non-equivalent groups to evaluate the effects of Computer Based Training and persuasive speech on individual environmental attitudes and behavior. Using the Theory of Planned Behavior model to determine intentions and behaviors, this study utilized surveys to evaluate the relative …
Value Focused Thinking For Nation Building In Afghanistan: A Regional Perspective, Muhammad S. Riaz
Value Focused Thinking For Nation Building In Afghanistan: A Regional Perspective, Muhammad S. Riaz
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis is an effort to mathematically model the nation building effort that is underway in Afghanistan. The thesis examines this nation building effort from the perspective of a local person who understands Afghan culture better than a foreigner. The thesis employs value-focused thinking to categorize the factors that we need to focus on for nation building in descending order of priority. This research adds a new dimension to the models already available in the literature and is likely to be more readily embraced by the local people who are sometimes in conflict with American priorities.
Reducing Operating Costs By Optimizing Space In Facilities, Jared J. Maline
Reducing Operating Costs By Optimizing Space In Facilities, Jared J. Maline
Theses and Dissertations
Facility maintenance and sustainment costs can represent a large portion of a company's or government's expenditures. The U.S. Government has a pressing need to reduce these costs and meet energy efficiency goals while remaining fiscally responsible. Research has shown that the government currently has little to no optimization standards or means of integrating such requirements into a decision making model. This is despite the fact that the data necessary to make educated decisions are already being collected through asset management and geospatial activities. This paper utilizes the Air Force's facility portfolio as a case study to better understand the problems …
Combating Biological Terrorism From Imported Food, Jeffrey S. Nelson
Combating Biological Terrorism From Imported Food, Jeffrey S. Nelson
Theses and Dissertations
There is a threat that a terrorist or terrorist organization will use access to the US food supply to kill or sicken Americans by contaminating imported food products from Mexico. The food that Americans eat is coming more and more often from foreign countries such as Mexico. Foodborne diseases infect nearly fifty million people in the US each year, resulting in over three thousand deaths. There are many terrorist organizations that would like to deliberately contaminate American food. Drug cartels and terrorist organizations currently operate in Mexico, one of the leading food importers into the US. The purpose of this …
An Analysis Of Factors That Influence Air Force Civil Engineer Company Grade Officer Turnover Intentions, Kevin C. Riddel
An Analysis Of Factors That Influence Air Force Civil Engineer Company Grade Officer Turnover Intentions, Kevin C. Riddel
Theses and Dissertations
Increased operational pace in support of combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, combined with a reduction in the number of service members, has required military members to work longer and harder. Civil engineer company grade officers are among the most heavily deployed members of the Air Force. Because of this, Air Force leaders are concerned that they will encounter retention challenges with these members. To address this issue, a questionnaire designed to capture several key attitudes individuals have about the Air Force and the civil engineer career field was administered to 364 Air Force civil engineer company grade officers. Results …
Daylighting Strategies For U.S. Air Force Office Facilities: Economic Analysis Of Building Energy Performance And Life-Cycle Cost Modeling With Monte Carlo Method, Sang M. Lee
Theses and Dissertations
The U.S. federal government maintains more than 500,000 facilities in the United States and around the world, most of which are heavily dependent on fossil fuels to produce electricity. Within the federal government, the Department of Defense (DOD) spends over $2.5 billion per year on facility energy consumption which makes them the largest single energy consumer in the United States. Therefore, federal energy conservation goals focus on aggressively reducing energy consumption by reducing the energy demand at the facility level within the next 20 years. Daylighting is a passive solar energy strategy at the facility level that leverages load avoidance …
Dynamic Modeling Of The Economic Impacts Of A Terrorist Attack Using A Radiological Dispersion Device, Christopher B. Ledford
Dynamic Modeling Of The Economic Impacts Of A Terrorist Attack Using A Radiological Dispersion Device, Christopher B. Ledford
Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this research is to model the dynamic economic influences associated with an attack using a radiological dispersion device (RDD). Specifically, this thesis seeks to identify the variables associated with the total economic impact to the local community where the attack occurs and gain better insights into how local, state and federal entities can employ various policy decisions to bring the system under control within the first year of recovery. Of primary interest to the research is the problematic behavior of exponential economic impact and how the final accumulation of fiscal cost can be reduced. Using a system …
The Hybrid Counterinsurgency Strategy: System Dynamics Employed To Develop A Behavioral Model Of Joint Strategy, Ferdinand Maldonado
The Hybrid Counterinsurgency Strategy: System Dynamics Employed To Develop A Behavioral Model Of Joint Strategy, Ferdinand Maldonado
Theses and Dissertations
Since the recent focus on the Global War on Terror, both military and civilian theorists have begun to “relearn” the intricacies of counterinsurgency warfare. We face difficult challenges when confronting non-state actors that tend to attack in the time between conventional battles and the establishment of stable governments. This research compares and contrasts current counterinsurgency strategies (Hearts and Minds and Cost Benefit Theory) by applying System Dynamics to provide insight into the influences and emergent behavior patterns of counterinsurgency systems. The information gained from the development of the models and from their simulation behaviors is used to construct a System …
An Analysis Of Second-Tier Arms Producing Country Offset Policies: Technology Transfer And Defense Industrial Base Establishment, Brian S. Confer
An Analysis Of Second-Tier Arms Producing Country Offset Policies: Technology Transfer And Defense Industrial Base Establishment, Brian S. Confer
Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this thesis is to determine if offsets are an effective means of second-tier countries acquiring technology and if offsets enhance their ability to establish and maintain an industrial base capable of producing high-technology weapons for use indigenously and for export. Included in the research was an analysis of factors that lead to successful or unsuccessful technology transfer through the utilization of offsets. Additionally, the research analyzed the factors that lead to the successful or unsuccessful establishment and maintenance of an indigenous defense industrial base through the utilization of offsets. The author concludes that the utilization of offsets …
Operationalizing Offensive Social Engineering For The Air Force, Bryan E. Skarda
Operationalizing Offensive Social Engineering For The Air Force, Bryan E. Skarda
Theses and Dissertations
Social engineering is the art and science of persuading individuals to bypass in place security mechanisms causing the unintended release of information. It is a low tech solution to a high tech problem and is as much an art as a science. As is true of many such solutions, social engineering is both ill-defined yet extremely effective. Its low cost, high payoff nature makes it an extremely attractive alternative to adversaries that do not have access to all the resources of a nation state. However, with full backing, the weapon can become that much more effective. Social engineering is something …
Modeling And Analysis Of Resolve And Morale For The `Long War', Michael J. Artelli
Modeling And Analysis Of Resolve And Morale For The `Long War', Michael J. Artelli
Theses and Dissertations
In The Art of War, Sun Tzu begins by stating: "War is a matter of vital importance to the State; the province of life or death; the road to survival or ruin. It is mandatory that it be thoroughly studied." Sun Tzu follow's this opening by stating five fundamental factors a commander must master to be successful in combat. The first of these factors is moral influence which Sun Tzu defines as "that which causes the people to be in harmony with their leaders, so they will accompany them in life and death without fear of mortal peril." In the …
Triangulating Social Capital Measurement For Turnover Research: Applications To The U.S. Military, Frederic W. Lunas
Triangulating Social Capital Measurement For Turnover Research: Applications To The U.S. Military, Frederic W. Lunas
Theses and Dissertations
In the United States, and around the world, social capital is becoming an intriguing new focus for slowing the declining sense of community and community trust. This strengthening focus on social capital in empirical study has great potential for an important role in U.S. public policy, as policy changes focused on increasing social capital may decrease turnover.
Yet, according to researchers, not enough sufficiently tested empirical measures of social capital exist. Combining several existing measures should provide a theoretically informed measurement of social capital for turnover research with application to the U.S. Military. Within this context, this thesis incorporated survey …
An Analysis Of The Impact Of Defense Acquisition Reforms And External Factors On Schedule Growth Of Defense Weapon Systems, Michael P. Giacomazzi Iii
An Analysis Of The Impact Of Defense Acquisition Reforms And External Factors On Schedule Growth Of Defense Weapon Systems, Michael P. Giacomazzi Iii
Theses and Dissertations
The growth in the acquisition cycle time of large defense systems from what was planned (i.e., schedule growth) creates several issues for defense acquisition managers and policy makers. These issues include increased likelihoods of cancellations, changes in requirements, and delays in the fielding of improved combat capabilities and replacements for legacy systems, which have resulted in further cost and schedule growth. As a result, Congress, the DoD, and the individual military services implemented several major reforms to address the cost and schedule growth of weapon systems. This research presents an empirical model of schedule growth to evaluate the impact of …
Optimizing The Prioritization Of Natural Disaster Recovery Projects, Jason M. Aftanas
Optimizing The Prioritization Of Natural Disaster Recovery Projects, Jason M. Aftanas
Theses and Dissertations
Prioritizing reconstruction projects to recover a base from a natural disaster is a complicated and arduous process that involves all levels of leadership. The project prioritization phase of base recovery has a direct affect on the allocation of funding, the utilization of human resources, the obligation of projects, and the overall speed and efficiency of the recovery process. The focus of this research is the development of an objective and repeatable process for optimizing the project prioritization phase of the recovery effort. This work will focus on promoting objectivity in the project prioritizing process, improving the communication of the overall …
Planning And Assessing Stability Operations: A Proposed Value-Focused Thinking Approach, Gerald D. Fensterer
Planning And Assessing Stability Operations: A Proposed Value-Focused Thinking Approach, Gerald D. Fensterer
Theses and Dissertations
Stability operations are vital to establish peace in the aftermath of conflict. The United States is often called in for military support during conflict. The new American military paradigms include establishing peace through stability operations after a military conflict. Due to this new role, military decision makers face many difficulties in conducting successful stability operations. Compounding this problem is the limited number of resources pertaining to stability operations: experts, doctrine, knowledge, and technology. Two overarching challenges of stability operations facing decision makers are planning and prioritizing of stability operations and determining progress. This thesis applies a structured analytical approach to …
Quantification Of Risk For Usaf Fire And Emergency Services Flights As A Result Of Shortage In Manpower, Timothy D. Dalby
Quantification Of Risk For Usaf Fire And Emergency Services Flights As A Result Of Shortage In Manpower, Timothy D. Dalby
Theses and Dissertations
The United States Air Force (USAF) is currently experiencing a period of high operations tempo and overseas deployments have become frequent. These deployments will leave home installations short manned. Some amount of risk is incurred by the home installation as a result of the short manning. For an organization, such as an USAF Fire and Emergency Services (FES) flight, whose primary responsibility is the protection of life and property, the incurred risk could be catastrophic. Still no attempt has been made to quantify risk in terms of manpower for the USAF FES flights. The primary purpose of this research was …
Patterns Of War Termination: A Statistical Approach, Paul D. Robinson Ii
Patterns Of War Termination: A Statistical Approach, Paul D. Robinson Ii
Theses and Dissertations
This research uses an advanced statistical technique to expand upon the current understanding of war termination. Specifically, this thesis addressed questions concerning the most relevant factors toward predicting both the outcomes of interstate wars and the winners of intrastate and extra-systemic wars, within the limitations of the available data. Open-source war data from the Correlates of War Project was analyzed using both binary and multinomial logistic regression techniques. While the Correlates of War Project did not necessarily focus its data collection efforts on those variables historically associated with war termination, it did provide a sufficient number of variables with which …