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Intermittent Consequences And Problem Solving: The Experimental Control Of “Superstitious” Beliefs, Ruth A. Heltzer, Stuart Vyse
Intermittent Consequences And Problem Solving: The Experimental Control Of “Superstitious” Beliefs, Ruth A. Heltzer, Stuart Vyse
Psychology Faculty Publications
Three groups of college students were asked to determine how points were earned in a task that allowed the assessment of response variability. All students received points for sequences of eight presses distributed across two keys (four presses on each key). One group received a point for each correct sequence, one group received points on a fixed-ratio 2 schedule, and one group received points on a random-ratio 2 schedule. There were no significant differences in nonverbal response variability across the three groups, and the fixed-ratio 2 and random-ratio 2 groups obtained equivalent point totals. However, participants in the random-ratio group …
Extrapolating Human Probability Judgment, Daniel N. Osherson, Edward E. Smith, Tracy S. Myers, Eldar Shafir
Extrapolating Human Probability Judgment, Daniel N. Osherson, Edward E. Smith, Tracy S. Myers, Eldar Shafir
University Faculty Publications and Creative Works
We advance a model of human probability judgment and apply it to the design of an extrapolation algorithm. Such an algorithm examines a person's judgment about the likelihood of various statements and is then able to predict the same person's judgments about new statements. The algorithm is tested against judgments produced by thirty undergraduates asked to assign probabilities to statements about mammals.