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Forecasting Stability Levels For The Countries Of The Former Soviet Union, Margaret Erin Keck

Theses and Dissertations

United States intelligence officers and policymakers need reliable forecasts of country, regional, and global stability or instability. Such forecasts require a methodology for identifying and analyzing factors that contribute to stability. The anticipation of this stability level can facilitate crisis warning and diplomatic strategies for various timelines, including five, ten, and twenty year forecasts. While the problem of forecasting can be tackled in various ways, in the interest of time and space, I will only go into a few of them. The approach I will use is multiple linear regression to generate a short-term forecast for the stability levels of …