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Holocene Climatic Change And Past Irish Societal Response, David Brown, M. Baillie, J. Palmer, Christian Turney Dec 2015

Holocene Climatic Change And Past Irish Societal Response, David Brown, M. Baillie, J. Palmer, Christian Turney

David C. Brown

No abstract provided.


Climate Change In The Dead Heart Of Australia, Joshua Larsen, Gerald C. Nanson, Timothy J. Cohen, Brian G. Jones, John D. Jansen, Jan-Hendrik May Dec 2015

Climate Change In The Dead Heart Of Australia, Joshua Larsen, Gerald C. Nanson, Timothy J. Cohen, Brian G. Jones, John D. Jansen, Jan-Hendrik May

Timothy Cohen

Despite the absence of large-scale glaciation, the Australian continent has experienced substantial environmental change throughout the Quaternary period. This is especially pronounced in central Australia, where one seventh of the continent is drained internally to the depocentre, and lowest point in Australia, Lake Eyre (Figure 1). Research has shown that at one time, large sandy braided and meandering rivers carried water through dunefields to a large freshwater lake system. Today, the rivers are hostage to the dunefield, and floodwaters might only reach Lake Eyre once every ten years or so. In order to understand the development of this arid desert …


Meteorological Modes Of Variability For Fine Particulate Matter (Pm2.5) Air Quality In The United States: Implications For Pm2.5 Sensitivity To Climate Change, A. P K. Tai, L J. Mickley, D J. Jacob, E M. Leibensperger, L Zhang, J A. Fisher, H. O T. Pye Feb 2015

Meteorological Modes Of Variability For Fine Particulate Matter (Pm2.5) Air Quality In The United States: Implications For Pm2.5 Sensitivity To Climate Change, A. P K. Tai, L J. Mickley, D J. Jacob, E M. Leibensperger, L Zhang, J A. Fisher, H. O T. Pye

Jenny A Fisher

We applied a multiple linear regression model to understand the relationships of PM2.5 with meteorological variables in the contiguous US and from there to infer the sensitivity of PM2.5 to climate change. We used 2004–2008 PM2.5 observations from ~1000 sites (~200 sites for PM2.5 components) and compared to results from the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM). All data were deseasonalized to focus on synoptic-scale correlations. We find strong positive correlations of PM2.5 components with temperature in most of the US, except for nitrate in the Southeast where the correlation is negative. Relative humidity (RH) is generally positively correlated with sulfate …


Using Social Network Analysis To Evaluate Health - Related Adaptation Decision Making In Cambodia, Kathryn Bowen, Damon Alexander, Fiona Miller, Dany Va Mar 2014

Using Social Network Analysis To Evaluate Health - Related Adaptation Decision Making In Cambodia, Kathryn Bowen, Damon Alexander, Fiona Miller, Dany Va

Dany Va

Climate change adaptation in the health sector requires decisions across sectors, levels of government, and organisations. The networks that link these different institutions, and the relationships among people within these networks, are therefore critical influences on the nature of adaptive responses to climate change in the health sector. This study uses social network research to identify key organisational players engaged in developing health-related adaptation activities in Cambodia. It finds that strong partnerships are reported as developing across sectors and different types of organisations in relation to the health risks from climate change. Government ministries are influential organisations, whereas donors, development …


Magnetic Phase Transitions And Entropy Change In Layered Ndmn1.7cr0.3si2, M F. Md Din, Jianli Wang, S J. Campbell, A J. Studer, M Avdeev, S J. Kennedy, Q F. Gu, R Zeng, S X. Dou Mar 2014

Magnetic Phase Transitions And Entropy Change In Layered Ndmn1.7cr0.3si2, M F. Md Din, Jianli Wang, S J. Campbell, A J. Studer, M Avdeev, S J. Kennedy, Q F. Gu, R Zeng, S X. Dou

Shi Xue Dou

A giant magnetocaloric effect has been observed around the Curie temperature, TC ∼ 42 K, in NdMn1.7Cr0.3Si2 with no discernible thermal and magnetic hysteresis losses. Below 400 K, three magnetic phase transitions take place around 380 K, 320 K and 42 K. Detailed high resolution synchrotron and neutron powder diffraction (10-400 K) confirmed the magnetic transitions and phases as follows: TN intra ∼ 380 K denotes the transition from paramagnetism to intralayer antiferromagnetism (AFl), TN inter ∼ 320 K represents the transition from the AFl structure to the canted antiferromagnetic spin structure (AFmc), while TC ∼ 42 K denotes the …


Projects Success: Looking Beyond The Project Management Toolkit., Lynn Crawford Sep 2013

Projects Success: Looking Beyond The Project Management Toolkit., Lynn Crawford

Lynn Crawford

Identification of factors that contribute to the success of projects has been a continuing interest of practitioners and a recurring theme in project management research and literature. The aim of this research is to extend the search for factors critical to success of projects, beyond the traditional project management toolkit to consider change implementation practices. Results from 160 respondents from both engineering and finance sector organizations indicate that project management, change implementation and benefits realization practices are positively correlated with perceived likelihood of project success. However, a key finding of this research is that the practices found to be most …


Negotiating Change: Working With Children And Their Employers To Transform Child Domestic Work In Iringa, Tanzania, Natascha Klocker Jul 2013

Negotiating Change: Working With Children And Their Employers To Transform Child Domestic Work In Iringa, Tanzania, Natascha Klocker

Natascha Klocker

This paper documents the practical and action-oriented findings of an investigation into child domestic work undertaken in Iringa, Tanzania from 2005 to 2007. It provides an overview of the experiences of both child domestic workers and their employers, before discussing their suggestions for how child domestic working arrangements may be improved. The latter sections of the paper relate the attempts to regulate child domestic work that emerged from such dialogue. In providing detailed information on that process, the paper is positioned within the field of action research and resists the boundary frequently applied between academia and activism. It also moves …


Investigation Of The Critical Behavior In Mn0.94nb 0.06coge Alloy By Using The Field Dependence Of Magnetic Entropy Change, J C. Debnath, P Shamba, A M. Strydom, Jianli Wang, S X. Dou Jul 2013

Investigation Of The Critical Behavior In Mn0.94nb 0.06coge Alloy By Using The Field Dependence Of Magnetic Entropy Change, J C. Debnath, P Shamba, A M. Strydom, Jianli Wang, S X. Dou

Jianli Wang

The critical behaviour of Mn0.94Nb0.06CoGe alloy around the paramagnetic-ferromagnetic phase transition was studied based on the field dependence on magnetic entropy change. By using the obtained exponents, the modified Arrott plot is consistent with that by using conventional method. These critical exponents are confirmed by the Widom scaling relation. Based on these critical exponents, the magnetization, field and temperature data around Tc collapse into two curves obeying the single scaling equation MðH; e)¼ebf6(H/ebþc). The calculated critical exponents not only obey the scaling theory but also anastomose the deduced results from the Kouvel-Fisher method [J. S. Kouvel and M. E. Fisher, …


Holocene Sea-Level Change On The Southeast Coast Of Australia: A Review, Colin Murray-Wallace, Brian Jones, Craig Sloss Jun 2013

Holocene Sea-Level Change On The Southeast Coast Of Australia: A Review, Colin Murray-Wallace, Brian Jones, Craig Sloss

B. G. Jones

No abstract provided.


Aeolian-Fluvial Interaction: Evidence For Late Quaternary Channel Change And Wind-Rift Linear Dune Formation In The Northwestern Simpson Desert, Australia, Gerald C. Nanson, Brian G. Jones, David M. Price, Tim Pietsch, C Bristow, Cameron B. Hollands Jun 2013

Aeolian-Fluvial Interaction: Evidence For Late Quaternary Channel Change And Wind-Rift Linear Dune Formation In The Northwestern Simpson Desert, Australia, Gerald C. Nanson, Brian G. Jones, David M. Price, Tim Pietsch, C Bristow, Cameron B. Hollands

B. G. Jones

In central Australia the most easterly extent of the MacDonnell Ranges borders the northwestern Simpson Desert where widely spaced strike ridges intercept the regional linear dunefield. Topographic basins have disrupted regional drainage lines and isolated dune sets from the main dunefield. In the western part of Camel Flat basin large, red coloured linear dunes of fine sand, ~ 74 ka and older, are oriented almost due north. Through gaps in the ranges the Todd River traversed the eastern part of the basin until ~25 ka when it apparently avulsed ~25 km eastwards to its present position. Subsequently, linear dunes, smaller, …


The Sedimentary Record Of Palaeoenvironments And Sea-Level Change In The Gulf Of Carpentaria, Australia, Through The Last Glacial Cycle, Jessica Reeves, Allan Chivas, Adriana Garcia, Sabine Holt, Martine Couapel, Brian Jones, Dionisio Cendon, David Fink Jun 2013

The Sedimentary Record Of Palaeoenvironments And Sea-Level Change In The Gulf Of Carpentaria, Australia, Through The Last Glacial Cycle, Jessica Reeves, Allan Chivas, Adriana Garcia, Sabine Holt, Martine Couapel, Brian Jones, Dionisio Cendon, David Fink

B. G. Jones

Environmental evolution of the Gulf of Carpentaria region, the world's largest tropical epicontinental seaway, through the last glacial cycle has been determined from a series of six sediment cores. These cores form the focus of a multi-disciplinary study to elucidate sea level, climate and environmental change in the region. The sedimentary record reveals a series of facies including open shallow marine, marginal marine, estuarine, lacustrine and subaerial exposure, throughout the extent of the basin during this period. The partial or complete closure of the central basin from marine waters results from sea level falling below the height of one or …


Climate Change In The Dead Heart Of Australia, Joshua Larsen, Gerald C. Nanson, Timothy J. Cohen, Brian G. Jones, John D. Jansen, Jan-Hendrik May Jun 2013

Climate Change In The Dead Heart Of Australia, Joshua Larsen, Gerald C. Nanson, Timothy J. Cohen, Brian G. Jones, John D. Jansen, Jan-Hendrik May

B. G. Jones

Despite the absence of large-scale glaciation, the Australian continent has experienced substantial environmental change throughout the Quaternary period. This is especially pronounced in central Australia, where one seventh of the continent is drained internally to the depocentre, and lowest point in Australia, Lake Eyre (Figure 1). Research has shown that at one time, large sandy braided and meandering rivers carried water through dunefields to a large freshwater lake system. Today, the rivers are hostage to the dunefield, and floodwaters might only reach Lake Eyre once every ten years or so. In order to understand the development of this arid desert …


Response Of Coral Reefs To Climate Change: Expansion And Demise Of The Southernmost Pacific Coral Reef, Colin D. Woodroffe, Brendan P. Brooke, Michelle Linklater, David M. Kennedy, Brian G. Jones, Cameron Buchanan, Richard Mleczko, Quan Hua, Jian-Xin Zhao Jun 2013

Response Of Coral Reefs To Climate Change: Expansion And Demise Of The Southernmost Pacific Coral Reef, Colin D. Woodroffe, Brendan P. Brooke, Michelle Linklater, David M. Kennedy, Brian G. Jones, Cameron Buchanan, Richard Mleczko, Quan Hua, Jian-Xin Zhao

B. G. Jones

Coral reefs track sea level and are particularly sensitive to changes in climate. Reefs are threatened by global warming, with many experiencing increased coral bleaching. Warmer sea surface temperatures might enable reef expansion into mid latitudes. Here we report multibeam sonar and coring that reveal an extensive relict coral reef around Lord Howe Island, which is fringed by the southernmost reef in the Pacific Ocean. The relict reef, in water depths of 25-50 m, flourished in early Holocene and covered an area more than 20 times larger than the modern reef. Radiocarbon and uranium-series dating indicates that corals grew between …


Large-Scale Washover Sedimentation In A Freshwater Lagoon From The Southeast Australian Coast: Sea-Level Change, Tsunami Or Exceptionally Large Storm?, Brian Jones, Adam Switzer Jun 2013

Large-Scale Washover Sedimentation In A Freshwater Lagoon From The Southeast Australian Coast: Sea-Level Change, Tsunami Or Exceptionally Large Storm?, Brian Jones, Adam Switzer

B. G. Jones

No abstract provided.


Investigation Of The Critical Behavior In Mn0.94nb 0.06coge Alloy By Using The Field Dependence Of Magnetic Entropy Change, J C. Debnath, P Shamba, A M. Strydom, Jianli Wang, S X. Dou Jun 2013

Investigation Of The Critical Behavior In Mn0.94nb 0.06coge Alloy By Using The Field Dependence Of Magnetic Entropy Change, J C. Debnath, P Shamba, A M. Strydom, Jianli Wang, S X. Dou

Shi Xue Dou

The critical behaviour of Mn0.94Nb0.06CoGe alloy around the paramagnetic-ferromagnetic phase transition was studied based on the field dependence on magnetic entropy change. By using the obtained exponents, the modified Arrott plot is consistent with that by using conventional method. These critical exponents are confirmed by the Widom scaling relation. Based on these critical exponents, the magnetization, field and temperature data around Tc collapse into two curves obeying the single scaling equation MðH; e)¼ebf6(H/ebþc). The calculated critical exponents not only obey the scaling theory but also anastomose the deduced results from the Kouvel-Fisher method [J. S. Kouvel and M. E. Fisher, …


Giant Magnetic Entropy Change In Colossal Magnetoresistance In La0.7ca0.3mno3 Material In Low Field, Jyotish Debnath, Rong Zeng, Jung Ho Kim, S X. Dou Jun 2013

Giant Magnetic Entropy Change In Colossal Magnetoresistance In La0.7ca0.3mno3 Material In Low Field, Jyotish Debnath, Rong Zeng, Jung Ho Kim, S X. Dou

Shi Xue Dou

The structural, magnetic, and magnetocaloric properties of the manganite La0.7Ca0.3MnO3 have been studied. Change in the giant magnetic entropy was observed without any noticeable magnetic hysteresis but with small thermal hysteresis losses. We observed a first order magnetic phase transition around 251 K. The magnetic entropy change observed in this work is estimated to be 5.27 J/kg K for field changes from 0 to 1.5 T based on magnetization measurements. This value is about twice as large as those for other perovskite manganites and is even larger than for Gd-based magnetic materials at low fields. In addition, the entropy change …


Mammalian Responses To Pleistocene Climate Change In Southeastern Australia, Richard Roberts, Jonathon Olley, John Hellstrom, Dirk Megirian, Gavin Prideaux, Kira Westaway Mar 2013

Mammalian Responses To Pleistocene Climate Change In Southeastern Australia, Richard Roberts, Jonathon Olley, John Hellstrom, Dirk Megirian, Gavin Prideaux, Kira Westaway

Richard G Roberts

No abstract provided.


Redating The Advance Of The New Zealand Franz Josef Glacier During The Last Termination: Evidence For Asynchronous Climate Change, Richard Roberts, Christian Turney, Matt Mcglone, J Cooper, J Wilmshurst, N De Jonge, C Prior Mar 2013

Redating The Advance Of The New Zealand Franz Josef Glacier During The Last Termination: Evidence For Asynchronous Climate Change, Richard Roberts, Christian Turney, Matt Mcglone, J Cooper, J Wilmshurst, N De Jonge, C Prior

Richard G Roberts

No abstract provided.


Human Occupation, Adaptation And Behavioural Change In The Pleistocene And Holocene Of South India: Recent Investigations In The Kurnool District, Andhra Pradesh, Richard Roberts, Kevin White, Christopher Clarkson, Jinu Koshy, Ravi Korisettar, Sacha Jones, Clive Oppenheimer, Nicole Boivin, Michael Petraglia, Peter Ditchfield, Janardhana B, Jamie Hampson, Preston Miracle, Kevin Cunningham, M Kasturi Bai, Dorian Fuller, Michael Haslam Mar 2013

Human Occupation, Adaptation And Behavioural Change In The Pleistocene And Holocene Of South India: Recent Investigations In The Kurnool District, Andhra Pradesh, Richard Roberts, Kevin White, Christopher Clarkson, Jinu Koshy, Ravi Korisettar, Sacha Jones, Clive Oppenheimer, Nicole Boivin, Michael Petraglia, Peter Ditchfield, Janardhana B, Jamie Hampson, Preston Miracle, Kevin Cunningham, M Kasturi Bai, Dorian Fuller, Michael Haslam

Richard G Roberts

No abstract provided.


Bryophyte Species Composition Over Moisture Gradients In The Windmill Islands, East Antarctica: Development Of A Baseline For Monitoring Climate Change Impacts, J Wasley, S A. Robinson, J D. Turnbull, D H. King, W Wanek, M Popp Feb 2013

Bryophyte Species Composition Over Moisture Gradients In The Windmill Islands, East Antarctica: Development Of A Baseline For Monitoring Climate Change Impacts, J Wasley, S A. Robinson, J D. Turnbull, D H. King, W Wanek, M Popp

Sharon Robinson

Extreme environmental conditions prevail on the Antarctic continent and limit plant diversity to cryptogamic communities, dominated by bryophytes and lichens. Even small abiotic shifts, associated with climate change, are likely to have pronounced impacts on these communities that currently exist at their physiological limit of survival. Changes to moisture availability, due to precipitation shifts or alterations to permanent snow reserves, will most likely cause greatest impact. In order to establish a baseline for determining the effect of climate change on continental Antarctic terrestrial communities and to better understand bryophyte species distributions in relation to moisture in a floristically important Antarctic …


Experience With Change Evaluations Suggests The Need For Better Learning Designs: One Possibility For Mathematics, Bothaina Bukhatowa, Anne Porter, Mark Nelson Dec 2012

Experience With Change Evaluations Suggests The Need For Better Learning Designs: One Possibility For Mathematics, Bothaina Bukhatowa, Anne Porter, Mark Nelson

Associate Professor Mark Nelson

A Change Evaluation was conducted in the School of Mathematics and Applied Statistics, at the University of Wollongong (UOW) with a view to identifying which resources to improve in order to facilitate better student learning outcomes. One hundred and thirty students took the subject MATH151 during the autumn term of the 2010 academic year with 101 students responding to the evaluation questionnaire. Data collection was used to discover which resources had the greatest potential for improvement or replacement and to examine if the structure of the subject could be improved for better student understanding and learning. The survey was also …


Piloting A Logic-Based Framework For Understanding Organisational Change Process For A Health It Implementation, Kieren Diment, Karin Garrety, Ping Yu Dec 2012

Piloting A Logic-Based Framework For Understanding Organisational Change Process For A Health It Implementation, Kieren Diment, Karin Garrety, Ping Yu

Dr Ping Yu

This paper describes how a method for evaluating organisational change based on the theory of logical types can be used for classifying organisational change processes to understand change after the implementation of an electronic documentation system in a residential aged care facility. In this instance we assess the organisational change reflected by care staff's perceptions of the benefits of the new documentation system at one site, at pre-implementation, and at 12 months post-implementation. The results show how a coherent view from the staff as a whole of the personal benefits, the benefits for others and the benefits for the organization …


A Preliminary Investigation Of Complex Adaptive Systems As A Model For Explaining Organisational Change Caused By The Introduction Of Health Information Systems, Kieren Diment, Ping Yu, Karin Garrety Dec 2012

A Preliminary Investigation Of Complex Adaptive Systems As A Model For Explaining Organisational Change Caused By The Introduction Of Health Information Systems, Kieren Diment, Ping Yu, Karin Garrety

Dr Ping Yu

This paper documents the preliminary development of a framework for evaluating organisational change processes during the implementation of an electronic nursing documentation system in residential aged care facilities. It starts with a brief outline of organisational change processes. This is followed by a more detailed exposition of the principles underlying complex adaptive systems (CAS) theory, where we explain how mathematical concepts can be used to illuminate qualitative research approaches. Finally we present some preliminary findings on the facilitators and barriers for the introduction of the electronic documentation system, explained with reference to the CAS theory, based on analysis of interviews …


A Preliminary Investigation Of Complex Adaptive Systems As A Model For Explaining Organisational Change Caused By The Introduction Of Health Information Systems, Kieren Diment, Ping Yu, Karin Garrety Dec 2012

A Preliminary Investigation Of Complex Adaptive Systems As A Model For Explaining Organisational Change Caused By The Introduction Of Health Information Systems, Kieren Diment, Ping Yu, Karin Garrety

Karin Garrety

This paper documents the preliminary development of a framework for evaluating organisational change processes during the implementation of an electronic nursing documentation system in residential aged care facilities. It starts with a brief outline of organisational change processes. This is followed by a more detailed exposition of the principles underlying complex adaptive systems (CAS) theory, where we explain how mathematical concepts can be used to illuminate qualitative research approaches. Finally we present some preliminary findings on the facilitators and barriers for the introduction of the electronic documentation system, explained with reference to the CAS theory, based on analysis of interviews …


Does Technology Use Change When In A Developed Country? A Case Study Of Libyans In Australia, Fouad Elgahwash, Mark Freeman Dec 2012

Does Technology Use Change When In A Developed Country? A Case Study Of Libyans In Australia, Fouad Elgahwash, Mark Freeman

Dr Mark Freeman

With developing countries now gaining access to modern banking services for their customers, research is needed to understand how developing countries will adapt to these changes. Since the 1980s, in the Arabic region, technological expansion has occurred with a focus on trade and services offered by industries &¿ recently the banking sector has started to develop banking services through mobile devices and the Internet to improve customer relationships. In particular, the banking sector is an information intensive industry and aims to be at the forefront of advanced use of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs). One common trend is increasing the …


Experience With Change Evaluations Suggests The Need For Better Learning Designs: One Possibility For Mathematics, Bothaina Bukhatowa, Anne Porter, Mark Nelson Nov 2012

Experience With Change Evaluations Suggests The Need For Better Learning Designs: One Possibility For Mathematics, Bothaina Bukhatowa, Anne Porter, Mark Nelson

Associate Professor Anne Porter

A Change Evaluation was conducted in the School of Mathematics and Applied Statistics, at the University of Wollongong (UOW) with a view to identifying which resources to improve in order to facilitate better student learning outcomes. One hundred and thirty students took the subject MATH151 during the autumn term of the 2010 academic year with 101 students responding to the evaluation questionnaire. Data collection was used to discover which resources had the greatest potential for improvement or replacement and to examine if the structure of the subject could be improved for better student understanding and learning. The survey was also …


A Spatial Agent-Based Model To Explore Scenarios Of Adaptation To Climate Change In An Alpine Tourism Destination, Stefano Balbi, Pascal Perez, Carlo Giupponi Nov 2012

A Spatial Agent-Based Model To Explore Scenarios Of Adaptation To Climate Change In An Alpine Tourism Destination, Stefano Balbi, Pascal Perez, Carlo Giupponi

Professor Pascal Perez

A vast body of literature suggests that the European Alpine region may be one of the most sensitive to climate change impacts. Adaptation to climate change of Alpine socioecosystems is increasingly becoming an issue of interest for the scientific community while the people of the Alps are often unaware of or simply ignore the problem. ClimAlpTour is a European research project of the Alpine Space Programme, bringing together institutions and scholars from all countries of the Alpine arch, in view of dealing with the expected decrease in snow and ice cover, which may lead to a rethinking of tourism development …


Simkat: A Virtual Laboratory To Explore The Impact Of Climate Change Scenarios On The Western Australian Wheat-Belt, A Dray, S Asseng, Pascal Perez, S Charles, B Bates Nov 2012

Simkat: A Virtual Laboratory To Explore The Impact Of Climate Change Scenarios On The Western Australian Wheat-Belt, A Dray, S Asseng, Pascal Perez, S Charles, B Bates

Professor Pascal Perez

The northernmost part of the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef (MBR) runs along the eastern Yucatan peninsula (Mexico). Over two decades, sprawling coastal tourism development and over-exploitation of marine resources have considerably reduced fringing reef's ecological functions. SimReef is an interactive model designed to better understand the interactions between regional and local drivers strongly influencing the health of coral reefs. SimReef's development follows a collective design approach and an inductive process whereby dynamics are represented by data-driven relationships. Experts and stakeholders participate to the designing phase in order to help calibrating the model and to support a consensual validation of the results.


Don't Do What Australia Has Done, R. Nillsen Nov 2012

Don't Do What Australia Has Done, R. Nillsen

Professor Rodney Nillsen

The paper describes and analyses the environment in Australian universities since the changes initiated under the Labor government in 1988 by John Dawkins. It looks at the role and interplay of ideas in the changing intellectual culture in universities, in particular the common effect of the ideas of both liberal economics and postmodernism, and the tensions between corporate values and open enquiry. It raises the issues of the extent to which universities should have a distinct set of values from wider society, and the basis upon which universities should exist as distinctive institutions.


Combining Outputs From The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program By Using A Bayesian Hierarchical Model, Emily L. Kang, Noel Cressie, Stephan R. Sain Nov 2012

Combining Outputs From The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program By Using A Bayesian Hierarchical Model, Emily L. Kang, Noel Cressie, Stephan R. Sain

Professor Noel Cressie

We investigate the 20-year-average boreal winter temperatures generated by an ensemble of six regional climate models (RCMs) in phase I of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. We use the long-run average (20-year integration) to smooth out variability and to capture the climate properties from the RCM outputs. We find that, although the RCMs capture the large-scale climate variation from coast to coast and from south to north similarly, their outputs can differ substantially in some regions. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to synthesize information from the ensemble of RCMs, and we construct a consensus climate signal …