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Predicting The Influence Of Climate On Grassland Area Burned In Xilingol, China With Dynamic Simulations Of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models, Ali Hassan Shabbir, Jiquan Zhang, James D. Johnston, Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie, James A. Lutz, Xingpeng Liu

Wildland Resources Faculty Publications

The influence of climate change on wildland fire has received considerable attention, but few studies have examined the potential effects of climate variability on grassland area burned within the extensive steppe land of Eurasia. We used a novel statistical approach borrowed from the social science literature—dynamic simulations of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models—to explore the relationship between temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, sunlight, and carbon emissions on grassland area burned in Xilingol, a large grassland-dominated landscape of Inner Mongolia in northern China. We used an ARDL model to describe the influence of these variables on observed area burned between …