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Portfolio Optimization Using Value Focused Thinking, Tyler Martin
Portfolio Optimization Using Value Focused Thinking, Tyler Martin
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis explores the application of Value Focused Thinking (VFT) and multi-objective portfolio optimization to create a well-aligned portfolio for an organization faced with over 50 alternatives and limited funding. A novel technique is proposed to develop an optimized portfolio based on VFT scores, utilizing heuristic approaches like evolutionary algorithms. The research outcomes include an optimized portfolio, the total value evaluation of alternatives, and a sensitivity analysis. The new approach outperforms the organization’s previous method, resulting in a portfolio that better addresses the organization’s core values and objectives, scoring 21.21% higher.
Design And Analysis Of Asymmetric “String-Of-Pearls” Common Repeating-Ground-Track Satellite Constellations For Missions Requiring Regional Coverage, Nathaniel Choo
Theses and Dissertations
Satellite constellation design must balance many factors that emerge from multiple sources, including environmental hazards and competing mission objectives. The dynamic nature of space systems makes the problem of ‘optimal’ satellite constellation design even more challenging. Restricting satellite constellation designs to predefined geometric frameworks can alleviate many challenges associated with the design problem; however, it raises an important question: which geometric framework performs best for each mission set? This research leverages simulations, metaheuristics, and mathematical programming techniques to address this question for missions focusing on Earth-observation of one or more regions.
First, this research captures the current state of satellite …
Investigation Of Rhine Pointing As A Solution To The Aircraft Human Machine Interface Problem, Alexandra C. Dobranski, Samuel J. Medvec
Investigation Of Rhine Pointing As A Solution To The Aircraft Human Machine Interface Problem, Alexandra C. Dobranski, Samuel J. Medvec
Theses and Dissertations
The human machine interface in 5th generation aircraft has not evolved proportionally with advances in display size and data density. The traditional cursor slew method fails to rapidly relocate the cursor, especially on large displays. Previous studies at the Air Force Test Pilot School and Air Force Institute of Technology identified methods that have the potential to improve the human machine interface. This research expanded upon those studies by providing an assessment of head tracking technology as a secondary method of cursor manipulation. Specifically, this study examined the effects that visual feedback (visible and invisible head tracking cursors) and cursor …
Uncertainty Quantification In Federated Learning For Persistent Post-Traumatic Headache, Byungmoo Brian Kim
Uncertainty Quantification In Federated Learning For Persistent Post-Traumatic Headache, Byungmoo Brian Kim
Theses and Dissertations
A post-traumatic headache (PTH), resulting from a mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI), potentially develops into persistent post-traumatic headache (PPTH). Although no known cure for PPTH exists, research has shown that receiving treatment at earlier stages of PTH lowers the risk of patients developing PPTH. Previous studies have shown machine learning (ML) models capable of predicting a patient’s PTH progression, but none have considered the issue of protecting patient privacy. Due to patient privacy, ML models only have access to data within the institution. Federated learning (FL) harnesses data from separate institutions without sacrificing patient privacy as institutions can run ML …
Pattern Of Life Modeling On Maritime Vessels With Bayesian Inferencing, Miles A. Kelly
Pattern Of Life Modeling On Maritime Vessels With Bayesian Inferencing, Miles A. Kelly
Theses and Dissertations
Despite decades of research, maritime traffic models’ limited predictive power continues to constrain their operational utility. We build on previous pattern of life modeling algorithms and contribute a Bayesian inferencing model for anomaly detection. Our probabilistic approach provides decision makers the capability to tailor the belief threshold for identifying anomalies and to enact a measured response based on the degree of abnormality. We perform a case study to evaluate the results, verifying that our Bayesian inferencing method accurately refines its probability when given the location and time of a ship of interest, and serving as a proof of concept for …
Long-Term Asset Prioritization To Support District Planning, Melissa R. Sallberg
Long-Term Asset Prioritization To Support District Planning, Melissa R. Sallberg
Theses and Dissertations
The United States Air Force (USAF) relies on its installations to project military power across the globe. However, due to the deferred infrastructure maintenance and recapitalization backlog of $33 billion as of 2019 (Wilson & Goldfein, 2019), it is more critical than ever for base-level community planners to focus their attention to the projects that will achieve each installation’s long-term goals. The recent incorporation of asset management principles into the USAF District Planning Process allows a unique opportunity to improve the existing scoring model for a holistic look at what matters to enterprise leaders and community planners making the plans …
Team And Skill Matching For Disaster Recovery Operations, Emily B. Frahm
Team And Skill Matching For Disaster Recovery Operations, Emily B. Frahm
Theses and Dissertations
United States Air Force (USAF) bases are key power projection platforms that ensure mission readiness and help bring humanitarian aid to locations in need. Recovering airfields after attack or natural disaster is a key mission of USAF civil engineers, and accomplishing this repair as swiftly as possible is key to maintaining our position in the global order. Accomplishing a disaster recovery project is a set of teams, each assigned to a specific task, and made up of a series of personnel. The question answered within this paper is: how do we match the right person with the appropriate skills to …
A Transformer Based Architecture For Indonesian Sentiment Analysis - Exploring Indobert Variations, Training Size, And Self-Supervised Model Training, Connor F. Shaw
Theses and Dissertations
There is strong motivation in both civilian and military circles to understand the attitudes, motivations, feelings, and emotions of a population of interest. Social media is a rich source of self-disclosed information by individuals from all walks of life about virtually every domain of the human experience, but the vast quantity of data is impossible to effectively analyze without advanced natural language processing algorithms. This research creates a transfer learning based emotion classification model for Indonesian language Twitter data. Transfer learning consists of two steps: pre-training and fine tuning. Three variations of Indonesian Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (IndoBERT) are …
Cooperative Wide Area Search Algorithm Analysis Using Sub-Region Techniques, Shawn Whitney
Cooperative Wide Area Search Algorithm Analysis Using Sub-Region Techniques, Shawn Whitney
Theses and Dissertations
Recent advances in small Unmmaned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) technology reinvigorates the need for additional research into Wide Area Search (WAS) algorithms for civilian and military applications. But due to the extremely large variability in UAV environments and design, Digital Engineering (DE) is utilized to reduce the time, cost, and energy required to advance this technology. DE also allows rapid design and evaluation of autonomous systems which utilize and support WAS algorithms. Modern WAS algorithms can be broadly classified into decision-based algorithms, statistical algorithms, and Artificial Intelligence (AI)/Machine Learning (ML) algorithms. This research continues on the work by Hatzinger and Gertsman …
Project Selection In Facility And Infrastructure Maintenance Organizations, Bayram M. Kurbanov
Project Selection In Facility And Infrastructure Maintenance Organizations, Bayram M. Kurbanov
Theses and Dissertations
The current Air Force Civil Engineer Center (AFCEC) built infrastructure Facility Sustainment Restoration and Modernization (FSRM) portfolio management methodology results in an unbalanced project portfolio. The consequence of this unbalance is that majority of the funding goes towards buildings on the flightline and Facility Support Services activities do not get adequate funding which leads to further deterioration of those facilities. This research investigates whether decision support framework based on Value-Focused Thinking (VFT) process yields better project selection outcomes for facility and infrastructure maintenance organizations. To accomplish that, the investigation focuses on understanding current AFCEC decision support methodology, building an alternative …
Operational And Cost Analysis Of A Leo Radar-Based Satellite Constellation, Kyle O. Norbert
Operational And Cost Analysis Of A Leo Radar-Based Satellite Constellation, Kyle O. Norbert
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis presents a methodology to assess the ability of a Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite constellation to successfully accomplish the GMTI mission in a cost-effective fashion. A simulation model was developed to test the coverage performance of 512 unique constellation designs. Significant factors were revealed by developing regression models that revealed the most critical constellation trade-offs on measures of performance. A Value-Focused Thinking (VFT) approach was applied to assign weights to a broad range of measures of performance from which the Pareto distribution on a cost-capability plot revealed cost-effectiveness. A novel measure of performance was developed and analyzed that accounted …
Root-Cause Analysis Of Rsaf Maintenance-Related Flight Safety Mishaps, Heaf H. Alqahtani
Root-Cause Analysis Of Rsaf Maintenance-Related Flight Safety Mishaps, Heaf H. Alqahtani
Theses and Dissertations
Poor maintenance is a major factor in many aviation mishaps. This is due to the fact that some maintenance activities are carried out improperly or overlooked as a result of human error. It is important to acknowledge that maintenance mistakes are a visible sign of deeper organizational issues. Therefore, adequate solutions to maintenance issues must consider organizational influences. Despite efforts to reduce the accident rate within the Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF), the RSAF suffers from an increasing trend in mishaps attributed to maintenance. Therefore, safety data was analyzed to examine trends. Additionally, the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System …
Evaluating Performance Competencies In The Royal Saudi Air Force Engineering Directorate And Squadrons, Faisal A. Al Dawood
Evaluating Performance Competencies In The Royal Saudi Air Force Engineering Directorate And Squadrons, Faisal A. Al Dawood
Theses and Dissertations
The effectiveness of tasks performed by the directorate of aeronautical engineering and squadrons in RSAF directly impacts flight safety, which in turn influences the organization either positively or negatively. Therefore, improving engineers' competencies will improve the overall performance of the organization. The study refined and reconstructed a model, namely a T-shape competency model, to assess the engineers' competencies which revealed some management and competency-related deficiencies and concluded with managerial recommendations.
Game Theory Framework To Evaluate Nuclear Deterrence, Michael A. Cevallos
Game Theory Framework To Evaluate Nuclear Deterrence, Michael A. Cevallos
Theses and Dissertations
This research game theory framework evaluates the resilience of nuclear deterrence options between two players. We use lexicographic prioritization to value four priorities of political, military, economic, and civilian casualties. The value order may be varied. We demonstrate our approach with six player choices of no nuclear strike, demonstration, counterforce, tactical military, economic, or countervalue strike. We use game theory to construct and analyze the resulting damage matrix. We conclude that credible deterrence requires having at least equivalent offensive damage capabilities.
Identifying Characteristics For Success Of Robotic Process Automations, Charles M. Unkrich
Identifying Characteristics For Success Of Robotic Process Automations, Charles M. Unkrich
Theses and Dissertations
In the pursuit of digital transformation, the Air Force creates digital airmen. Digital airmen are robotic process automations designed to eliminate the repetitive high-volume low-cognitive tasks that absorb so much of our Airmen's time. The automation product results in more time to focus on tasks that machines cannot sufficiently perform data analytics and improving the Air Force's informed decision-making. This research investigates the assessment of potential automation cases to ensure that we choose viable tasks for automation and applies multivariate analysis to determine which factors indicate successful projects. The data is insufficient to provide significant insights.
Analysis Of Generalized Artificial Intelligence Potential Through Reinforcement And Deep Reinforcement Learning Approaches, Jonathan Turner
Analysis Of Generalized Artificial Intelligence Potential Through Reinforcement And Deep Reinforcement Learning Approaches, Jonathan Turner
Theses and Dissertations
Artificial Intelligence is the next competitive domain; the first nation to develop human level artificial intelligence will have an impact similar to the development of the atomic bomb. To maintain the security of the United States and her people, the Department of Defense has funded research into the development of artificial intelligence and its applications. This research uses reinforcement learning and deep reinforcement learning methods as proxies for current and future artificial intelligence agents and to assess potential issues in development. Agent performance were compared across two games and one excursion: Cargo Loading, Tower of Hanoi, and Knapsack Problem, respectively. …
Simulating Autonomous Cruise Missile Swarm Behaviors In An Anti-Access Area Denial (A2ad) Environment, Kyle W. Goggins
Simulating Autonomous Cruise Missile Swarm Behaviors In An Anti-Access Area Denial (A2ad) Environment, Kyle W. Goggins
Theses and Dissertations
The increasingly sophisticated anti-access area denial (A2AD) threat imposed by the modern integrated air defense system (IADS), coupled with the decreasingly potent advantage provided by high-end stealth platforms, has prompted Air Force senior leaders to invest in radically changing the nature of air power for the year 2030 and beyond. A prominent element of this new vision is weapon swarming, which aims to address this challenge by overwhelming the IADS with huge numbers of low-cost, attritable aerial assets emboldened by autonomous capabilities. This research proposes a framework for classifying the different levels of autonomous capability along three independent dimensions—namely ability …
Analysis Of The Perspective On Syrian Refugees By Neighboring Countries, Norma Ghanem
Analysis Of The Perspective On Syrian Refugees By Neighboring Countries, Norma Ghanem
Theses and Dissertations
Mass migration destabilizes neighboring states, opening the way for fragile state exploitation by enemies, including those that could undermine U.S. national interests. This study investigates an area of the Levant region, specifically countries neighboring Syria, and analyzes their perspective on Syrian refugees for the time frame of 1 June 2019 - 30 June 2020. This analysis may assist in forming policy and creating strategies to address refugee related issues, both domestic and international. There are three main questions addressed. The first inspects dominant refugee framing, the second explores sentiment (dis)similarity within each country and across countries, and the third investigates …
Evaluating The Military Medical Evacuation Dispatching And Delivery Problem Via Simulation And Self-Exciting Hawkes Process, Virbon B. Frial
Evaluating The Military Medical Evacuation Dispatching And Delivery Problem Via Simulation And Self-Exciting Hawkes Process, Virbon B. Frial
Theses and Dissertations
The location, allocation, and utilization of military medical evacuation (MEDEVAC) resources significantly impact the quality and timeliness of medical care to injured troops. In 2009, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates introduced the Golden Hour mandate that entails the evacuation of critically-injured troops to military treatment facilities (MTFs) within an hour to prevent further complications. To develop high-quality policies that improve MEDEVAC system performance, several papers in the current literature assume that MTFs have both the capacity and capability of treating any patient, regardless of the type of injury. However, these assumptions are unrealistic when conducting high-intensity operations. While acknowledging MTF …
Analyzing The Impact Of Blood Transfusion Kits And Triage Misclassification Errors For Military Medical Evacuation Dispatching Policies Via Approximate Dynamic Programming, Channel A. Rodriguez
Analyzing The Impact Of Blood Transfusion Kits And Triage Misclassification Errors For Military Medical Evacuation Dispatching Policies Via Approximate Dynamic Programming, Channel A. Rodriguez
Theses and Dissertations
Members of the armed forces greatly rely on having an effective and efficient medical evacuation (MEDEVAC) process for evacuating casualties from the battlefield to medical treatment facilities (MTF) during combat operations. This thesis examines the MEDEVAC dispatching problem and seeks to determine an optimal policy for dispatching a MEDEVAC unit, if any, when a 9-line MEDEVAC request arrives, taking into account triage classification errors and the possibility of having blood transfusion kits on board select MEDEVAC units. A discounted, infinite-horizon continuous-time Markov decision process (MDP) model is formulated to examine such problem and compare generated dispatching policies to the myopic …
Statistically Defensible Wind Tunnel Models, Timothy A. Roche
Statistically Defensible Wind Tunnel Models, Timothy A. Roche
Theses and Dissertations
Wind tunnels are used to test scale-model air frames in order to collect aerodynamic data. The Subsonic Aerodynamic Research Laboratory (SARL) Wind Tunnel is a low speed wind tunnel located at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. The SARL Wind Tunnel team approached AFIT for assistance in creating statistically defensible models for the conditions inside the wind tunnel. During a wind tunnel test, pressure sensors cannot be placed at the test model. Instead, pressure is measured by a pitot probe permanently mounted in the corner of the test chamber. The pressure at the model location is predicted from the measurements taken by …
Modeling Air Force Retention With Macroeconomic Indicators, Michelle K. Mcgee
Modeling Air Force Retention With Macroeconomic Indicators, Michelle K. Mcgee
Theses and Dissertations
Officer retention has been a longstanding problem for Air Force leadership. Both intuition and previous research suggest economic and demographic factors play important roles in an officers decision to separate from service. Leading economic indicators are nationally reported statistics that tend to be predictive of where the economy is heading. This work targets the research gap of how leading economic indicators explain and predict attrition. Due to the noisy, complex nature of the data, the model had varied success in accurately predicting future attrition rates. As a result of this research, the current models can incorporate these findings to become …
Guidance For Building Motivation In Space Operator Training, Foster E. Davis
Guidance For Building Motivation In Space Operator Training, Foster E. Davis
Theses and Dissertations
Services provided by spacecraft, including communications and global positioning, are integral to small businesses, multinational corporations, and the United States Department of Defense. United States rivals recognize the need to undermine the military advantage provided by the space domain and are exploring ways to degrade these services in their warfare doctrine. In response, the United States will need space systems suited to counter these threats and personnel who are trained to respond to the new reality of a contested space environment. This paper also reviews the academic literature and written guidelines for developing motivation in an interactive environment for improving …
Investigating Manufacturer Selection Decisions For Built Infrastructure Assets Using A Technical Performance Metric, Sarah L. Brown
Investigating Manufacturer Selection Decisions For Built Infrastructure Assets Using A Technical Performance Metric, Sarah L. Brown
Theses and Dissertations
Facility and built infrastructure asset management are necessary functions of any organization that utilizes buildings to operate their businesses. However, most organizations require facility managers to ensure the successful operation of their assets without providing sufficient resources to accomplish this task. Therefore, in resource-scarce environments, facility managers require data-driven solutions to manage their assets and make the best decisions. Facility managers need novel solutions to help make asset life-cycle decisions. This research provides such a solution. Capitalizing on available data, a technical performance metric is created, allowing facility managers to calculate their assets' operational performance. This performance metric provides a …
Operationalized Intent For Improving Coordination In Human-Agent Teams, Michael F. Schneider
Operationalized Intent For Improving Coordination In Human-Agent Teams, Michael F. Schneider
Theses and Dissertations
With the increasing capabilities of artificial intelligent agents (AIAs) integrated into multi-agent systems, future concepts include human-agent teams (HATs) in which the members perform fluidly as a coordinated team. Research on coordination mechanisms in HATs is largely focused on AIAs providing information to humans to coordinate better (i.e. coordination from the AIA to the human). We focus on the compliment where AIAs can understand the operator to better synchronize with the operator (i.e. from the human to the AIA). This research focuses specifically on AIA estimation of operator intent. We established the Operationalized Intent framework which captures intent in a …
Analysis Of The Factors That Correlate With Transition Outcomes Of Commercial Technology Prototype Projects, Matthew D. Schoemaker
Analysis Of The Factors That Correlate With Transition Outcomes Of Commercial Technology Prototype Projects, Matthew D. Schoemaker
Theses and Dissertations
A key metric of success for Department of Defense (DoD) Research and Development organizations is the ability to transition technologies and prototypes. Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering's prototyping guide shows successful transition pathways come in the forms of transition to operational use, rapid fielding, existing program adoption, or a new acquisition program (2018). There are many factors that occur throughout a prototype projects lifecycle that impact the likelihood of transition. These factors include both qualitative and quantitative factors. Limited research has been performed, past the best practice considerations, of what factors impact transition of prototyping …
Ground Weather Radar Signal Characterization Through Application Of Convolutional Neural Networks, Stephen M. Lee
Ground Weather Radar Signal Characterization Through Application Of Convolutional Neural Networks, Stephen M. Lee
Theses and Dissertations
The 45th Weather Squadron supports the space launch efforts out of the Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station for the Department of Defense, NASA, and commercial customers through weather assessments. Their assessment of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) for avoidance of natural and rocket triggered lightning to launch vehicles is critical in approving space shuttle and rocket launches. The LLCC includes standards for cloud formations, which requires proper cloud identification and characterization methods. Accurate reflectivity measurements for ground weather radar are important to meet the LLCC for rocket triggered lightning. Current linear interpolation methods for ground …
Lightning Prediction For Space Launch Using Machine Learning Based Off Of Electric Field Mills And Lightning Detection And Ranging Data, Anson Cheng
Theses and Dissertations
Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Station, FL, where the Air Force conducts space launches, are in an area of frequent lightning strikes, which is main obstacle in meeting launch goals. The 45th Weather Squadron (45th WS) ensures that any weather safety requirements are met during pre-launch and actual space launch. Using only summer months from three years’ worth of lightning detection and ranging (LDAR) and electric field mill (EFM) data from KSC, several feedforward neural networks are constructed. Separate models are built for each EFM and trained by adjusting parameters to forecast lightning 30 minutes out in the …
Preferred Treatment Methods For Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease, James L. Deitschel
Preferred Treatment Methods For Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease, James L. Deitschel
Theses and Dissertations
Shared decision making is the concept of physicians involving patients in the treatment planning process. The University of Maryland Medical Center is interested in applying shared decision making to the treatment of patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD). The two treatment methods analyzed in this study were medical management and surgery. To explore patient preferences between these two alternatives, a discrete choice experiment (DCE) was employed. The responses for the DCE were binary, so logistic regression models were explored. The conditional logistic regression model was determined to be the most appropriate for this analysis. After step-wise regression was performed, a …
Defense Contractor Profit, Clayton S. Eilert
Defense Contractor Profit, Clayton S. Eilert
Theses and Dissertations
This research seeks to achieve two objectives: 1) to provide a comprehensive survey of research related to defense contractor profitability, and 2) to conduct an updated analysis of such profitability. No previous comprehensive survey of the topic was found in the academic literature. Therefore, the provision of such a survey may significantly benefit future researchers. A paucity of recent defense contractor profit research related was identified; only one published study analyzed data after 2000 and none used data more recent than 2010. This research reconciles the gap in recent defense contractor profit studies via objective two. Panel data analysis is …