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Scheduling And Sequencing Arrivals To A Stochastic Service System, Peter M. Vanden Bosch
Scheduling And Sequencing Arrivals To A Stochastic Service System, Peter M. Vanden Bosch
Theses and Dissertations
Optimization of scheduled arrival times to an appointment system is approached from the perspectives of both queueing and scheduling theory. The appointment system is modeled as a one-server, first-come-first-served, transient queue with independent, distinctly distributed service times and no-show rates. If a customer does show, it is assumed to be punctual. The cost of operating the appointment system is a convex combination of customers' waiting times and the server's overtime. While techniques for finding the optimal static and dynamic schedules of arrivals have been proposed by other researchers, they mainly have focused on identical customers and strictly punctual arrivals. This …
A Comparison Of Circular Error Probable Estimators For Small Samples, Charles E. Williams
A Comparison Of Circular Error Probable Estimators For Small Samples, Charles E. Williams
Theses and Dissertations
Several previous studies investigated the performance of competing circular error probable (CEP) estimators for small samples. This estimation is important in ICBM analysis because, due to expense, there are a limited number of ICBM test launches. In the most recent previous study (1993), Tongue considered five CEP estimators in a simulation test, attempting to determine the behavior of these estimators for populations of various bias, ellipticity, correlation, and sample size. In this paper, we build on Tongue's findings in three ways: (1) The number of estimators compared is expanded to eight. (2) Different factors and factor levels are used. (3) …
Sensitivity Analysis Of A Combat Simulation Using Response Surface Methodology, William J. Berg
Sensitivity Analysis Of A Combat Simulation Using Response Surface Methodology, William J. Berg
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis provides a methodology to analyze the sensitivity of a combat simulation relative to the capabilities of the modeled weapon systems. Response Surface Methodology (RSM) was the primary technique used for analysis. A ground battle scenario was developed with a commercial PC wargame Empire II: The Art of War(TM). In the computer verses computer mode, the wargame was transformed into a combat simulation'. A screening experiment was used to determine which of an original 23 weapon factors were actually significant to this scenario. After analyzing the remaining five factors, only three ended up as truly significant to the battle …
Statistical Modeling And Optimization Of Nuclear Waste Vitrification, Todd E. Combs
Statistical Modeling And Optimization Of Nuclear Waste Vitrification, Todd E. Combs
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis describes the development of a methodology to minimize the cost of vitrifying nuclear waste. Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) regression models are used as baseline equations for modeling glass properties such as viscosity, electrical conductivity, and two types of durability. Revised PNL regression models are developed that eliminate insignificant variables from the original models. The Revised PNL regression model for electrical conductivity is shown to better predict electrical conductivity than the original PNL regression model. Neural networks are developed for viscosity and the two types of durability, PCT-B and MCC-1 B. The neural network models are shown to outperform …
Ranking And Generating Alternatives For The National Air Intelligence Center's (Naic) Resource Allocation Strategy, Steven M. Cox
Ranking And Generating Alternatives For The National Air Intelligence Center's (Naic) Resource Allocation Strategy, Steven M. Cox
Theses and Dissertations
Allocating resources is never an easy task, especially when requirements call for more resources than those available. It gets more difficult when the availability of resources shrinks from year to year. This is the case at the National Air Intelligence Center (NAIC). In each of the past five years, NAIC has been forced to make their resource allocation decision with fewer dollars and less manpower. This decision has been time consuming, manpower intensive, and sometimes very heated. In an effort to lessen these three consequences, a resource allocation model, based upon the NAIC Commander's values and preferences, was developed. The …
Modeling Mirv Footprint Constraints In The Weapons Assignment Model, Elliot T. Fair
Modeling Mirv Footprint Constraints In The Weapons Assignment Model, Elliot T. Fair
Theses and Dissertations
US Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) is developing a new linear programming model called the Weapons Assignment Model (WAM) to perform weapons assignment for the Strategic Integrated Operations Plan (SIOP). One of the major improvements WAM will have over its predecessor is the ability to include Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) footprinting constraints in the optimization process. In order to include MIRV footprint constraints in WAM, a methodology is needed to model the MIRV footprints in a manner that is consistent with the limitations of linear programming. Two techniques for modeling MIRV footprints were developed. The first, Geometric Approximation (GA), uses …
Modeling A Chemical Battlefield And The Resulting Effects In A Theater-Level Combat Model, Todd M. Gesling
Modeling A Chemical Battlefield And The Resulting Effects In A Theater-Level Combat Model, Todd M. Gesling
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis describes the development of a methodology to model chemical weapons use in the Joint Staff's Joint Warfare Analysis Experimental Prototype (JWAEP) and to quantify the resulting effects. The methodology incorporates organic unit assets and theater-level chemical assets into JWAEP by using the three principles of nuclear, biological, and chemical defense (NBC) which reflect joint and Army doctrine, and combines them with the basic concepts already used in existing theater-level models. Other aspects of the problem include representing chemical 'packages' on the battlefield, determining attrition and time effects, adjusting unit effectiveness, determining chemical package intelligence acquisition procedures, identifying solution …
Linking Procurement Dollars To An Alternative Force Structures' Combat Capability Using Response Surface Methodology, James B. Grier
Linking Procurement Dollars To An Alternative Force Structures' Combat Capability Using Response Surface Methodology, James B. Grier
Theses and Dissertations
A General Officer Steering Group, chaired by HQ USAF/XOM tasked action to develop and implement evaluation and analysis support to lead turn' the Program Objective Memorandum (POM) and Joint Warfare Capability Assessment (JWCA) process. This evaluation process should be designed to supply measures of the 'health' of the Air Force program in light of the Defense Planning Guidance (DPG) and the Chairman's Program Assessment (CPA). The Air Force needs to be able to quickly evaluate various alternative force structures with regards to its combat capability, measured in terms of theater level campaign objectives (CO). HQ USAF/XOM tasked HQ USAF/XPY to …
A Decision Support System For Joint Force Air Component Commander (Jfacc) Combat Planning, Donald W. Hinton
A Decision Support System For Joint Force Air Component Commander (Jfacc) Combat Planning, Donald W. Hinton
Theses and Dissertations
This system allows assessment of the Master Air Attack Plan (MAAP) during construction and at completion. The system functions around a relational database management system providing a decision support tool for the Guidance, Apportionment, & Targeting (GAT) cell of Central Command's JFACC Combat Plans. A Microsoft Access application is programmed to provide PC-based, real time evaluation of air campaign goals and constraints. The decision support system was validated in February 1997 by the CENTAF combat plans staff at Blue Flag 97-1. The software and user's manual are maintained at HQ ACC/XP-Studies and Analysis Squadron.
Selecting A Health Care Option For Military Beneficiaries That Minimizes Health Care Costs While Maintaining Personal Desires For Choice, Norman H. Pallister
Selecting A Health Care Option For Military Beneficiaries That Minimizes Health Care Costs While Maintaining Personal Desires For Choice, Norman H. Pallister
Theses and Dissertations
Tricare, the triservice, triple-option, managed care plan for the uniformed services, incorporates a managed care support contract to complement Military Treatment Facilities. Currently being implemented throughout the CONUS, Tricare provides more equitable health care service to all military beneficiaries, improved access to care, a reduction in health care costs, and provides beneficiaries with an expanded choice of medical-care providers. This thesis examines the Tricare program and reviews relevant health care literature, both military and civilian. Using these inputs, the author presents a deterministic decision analysis model that allows a military beneficiary to select a health care option that minimizes his …
Analysis Of A Methodology For Linear Programming Optimality Analysis, Chanseok Jeong
Analysis Of A Methodology For Linear Programming Optimality Analysis, Chanseok Jeong
Theses and Dissertations
The methodology of Johnson, Baner, Moore, and Grant can be applied to large scale linear programming models. A methodology for optimality analysis of linear programs was developed to create metamodels using response surface methodology techniques such as experimental design and least squares regression. A metamodel consists of a simple equation which is able to predict the optimal objective function value of a linear program. What is needed is some large scale application of the techniques to verify how accurate they are. In the research, I plan to use the large scale LP model, STORM. I use the "Hot Start" idea …
A Methodology For Evaluating And Enhancing C4i Networks, Christine C. Davis
A Methodology For Evaluating And Enhancing C4i Networks, Christine C. Davis
Theses and Dissertations
This effort focuses on expanding the bottleneck links of an existing C4I network to meet projected demands. The minimum cost-maximum flow algorithm is used to identify bottlenecks. A decision analysis approach enables the mapping of performance objectives for a network expansion into measurable attributes within the structure of a value hierarchy. A multi-attribute value function combines these measures into an overall system effectiveness measure. This allows for an evaluation of the impact of potential upgrade components on the system. A knapsack model imposes budgetary constraints on the selection of components. This methodology allows for the design of an optimized system …
Transportation Modeling Of Remote Radar Sites And Support Depots, Sonia E. Leach
Transportation Modeling Of Remote Radar Sites And Support Depots, Sonia E. Leach
Theses and Dissertations
The North Warning System (NWS), a joint program of the United States Air Force (USAF) and the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF), is responsible for the maintenance of 47 remote radar sites across northern Canada. NWS's current airlift operations, which support the radar maintenance activities, consist of both helicopters and fixed wing aircraft positioned at five support depots. This thesis considers whether a reconfiguration of these support depots and the assignment of radar sites to them can result in either an airlift or total cost savings for NWS. Mixed integer linear programming models were formulated to address the questions surrounding …
The Application Of Statistical Process Control To Departure Reliability Improvement, Liu W. Chieh
The Application Of Statistical Process Control To Departure Reliability Improvement, Liu W. Chieh
Theses and Dissertations
This research effort focuses on applying statistical process control (SPC) techniques to the departure reliability improvement process for Air Mobility Command, Mission Reliability Office. Basic SPC methods, including Pareto analysis, cause and effect diagrams, and control charts are determined to be effective tools for analyzing and assessing departure reliability. In addition, two more alternative measures of effectiveness for departure reliability are evaluated and compared using AMC's data. SPC methods are also shown to be useful in assessing in performance and in determining the reporting frequency for on-time performance information. Additional statistical analyses are conducted, including on-way analyses of variance, hypothesis …
Analyzing Remediation Technologies For Department Of Energy Sites Contaminated With Dnapl Pollutants, Anthony F. Papatyi
Analyzing Remediation Technologies For Department Of Energy Sites Contaminated With Dnapl Pollutants, Anthony F. Papatyi
Theses and Dissertations
The Department of Energy is in the process of conducting a Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study for a site contaminated with Dense Non-Aqueous Phase Liquid (DNAPL) pollutants at their Paducah Kentucky facility. A major part of this effort is the screening of alternative technologies. This thesis effort focuses on acquiring insight into a number of remediation technology trains that are candidates for the Paducah site. This insight is used to recommend and justify the screening of candidate technology trains. The research makes use of two decision analysis models (one is deterministic, the other is probabilistic) built to provide a quantitative assessment of …
Turkish Air Mobility Modeling, Huseyin Topcuoglu
Turkish Air Mobility Modeling, Huseyin Topcuoglu
Theses and Dissertations
The aim of this research is to provide a tactical mobility model which is user friendly and flexible so the user is able to change the inputs, and evaluate the situation with the projected data for an operational plan. Thus, the users can analyze their system by using the model to see whether or not mobility requirements can be met within a definite time frame, and how long it takes to satisfy the requirements. Generalized Air Mobility Model (GAMM) was chosen to model TAMC's airlift system and has been found suitable for application to TUAF mobility problems. The software enables …
Decision Support Model To Select The Optimal Municipal Solid Waste Management Policy At United States Air Force Installations, Johnathon L. Dulin
Decision Support Model To Select The Optimal Municipal Solid Waste Management Policy At United States Air Force Installations, Johnathon L. Dulin
Theses and Dissertations
The United States Air Force has recently defined three objectives in developing strategies regarding the management of municipal solid waste at the base level. They are: (1) 50 percent reduction in total waste generated, from a 1992 baseline amount, by 1999; (2) 50 percent recycling of all waste generated, beginning in 1999; and, (3) a minimum cost program. With these objectives in mind, base environmental engineers must take appropriate actions in an effort to develop a program that meets these goals. Through consultations with base environmental managers, as well as research of the available literature, a decision support model was …
Simulation Model Of Fighter Pilot Assignment Process, Anthony J. Hutfles
Simulation Model Of Fighter Pilot Assignment Process, Anthony J. Hutfles
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis analyzes the effect Continental United States (CONUS) Time on Station (TOS) has on filling critical rated assignments. A SIMSCRIPT II.5 simulation model of the F15 and F16 pilots assignment process was developed. The simulation tested the effect of changing CONUS TOS from 3 years to 6 years in half year increments. Analysis of the number of unfilled rated assignments from simulation runs of 10 years in length indicated that changing CONUS TOS by itself has no statistically significant effect on model's output. The analysis was expanded to a 2(2) factorial experimental design using CONUS TOS and Total Active …
A Cercla-Based Decision Support System For Environmental Remediation Strategy Selection, Brian J. Grelk
A Cercla-Based Decision Support System For Environmental Remediation Strategy Selection, Brian J. Grelk
Theses and Dissertations
The Idaho National Environmental Engineering Laboratory (INEEL), operating in conjunction with the Department of Energy (DOE), faces with the complex decision of selecting an environmental remediation strategy for the Subsurface Disposal Area (SDA) of the Radioactive Waste Management Complex (RWMC). This research uses value-focused thinking and multiattribute preference theory techniques to produce a decision analysis model to aid the decisionmakers as they select a remediation strategy. A deterministic analysis using expert opinion and the best available engineering data demonstrates the model's capabilities. The model ranks 27 specific remediation strategies based on how well they meet CERCLA's five balancing criteria: implementability, …
Modeling And Analyzing The Effect Of Ground Refueling Capacity On Airfield Throughput, W. Heath Rushing
Modeling And Analyzing The Effect Of Ground Refueling Capacity On Airfield Throughput, W. Heath Rushing
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis develops five analytical models to understand the current ground refueling process, to optimize the airfield configuration and to determine the refueling policy which maximizes throughput, the primary measure of airfield efficiency. This study models the airfield refueling process as a continuous time Markov process to adequately represent the inherent stochastic nature of the transitory ground refueling system and provide an analytical evaluation of various airfield configurations. Also, the study provides an optimal refueling policy to minimize the number of aircraft on the ground which in turn minimizes the average amount of time aircraft spend on the ground in …
Experiments In Aggregating Air Ordnance Effectiveness Data For The Tacwar Model, James E. Parker
Experiments In Aggregating Air Ordnance Effectiveness Data For The Tacwar Model, James E. Parker
Theses and Dissertations
An interactive MS Access&trademark; based application that aggregates the output of the SABSEL model for input into the TACWAR model is developed. The application was developed following efforts to create a functional approximation of the SABSEL data using neural networks, statistical networks, and traditional statistical techniques. These approximations were compared to a look-up table methodology on the basis of accuracy, (RMSE
Sensitivity Of Availability Estimates To Input Data Characterization, Darren P. Durkee
Sensitivity Of Availability Estimates To Input Data Characterization, Darren P. Durkee
Theses and Dissertations
Reliability analysts are often faced with the challenge of characterizing the behavior of system components based on limited data. Any insight into which model input data is most significant and how much data is necessary to achieve desired accuracy requirements will improve the efficiency and cost effectiveness of the data collection and data characterization processes. This thesis assesses potential significant factors in the probabilistic characterization of component failure and repair behavior with respect to the effect on system availability estimates. Potential factors were screened for significance utilizing fractional. factorial and Plackett-Burman experimental designs for several system models developed using an …
A Cost Impact Assessment Tool For Pfs Logistics Consulting, Angela P. Giddings
A Cost Impact Assessment Tool For Pfs Logistics Consulting, Angela P. Giddings
Theses and Dissertations
Response surface methodology (RSM) is used for optimality analysis of the cost parameters in mixed integer linear programming. This optimality analysis goes beyond traditional sensitivity and parametric analysis in allowing investigation of the optimal objective function value response over pre-specified ranges on multiple problem parameters. Design of experiments and least squares regression are used to indicate which cost parameters have the greatest impact on the optimal objective function value total cost-and to approximate the optimal total cost surface over the specified ranges on the parameters. The mixed integer linear programming problems of interest are the large-scale problems in supply chain …
Applying Tabu Heuristic To Wind Influenced, Minimum Risk And Maximum Expected Coverage Routes, Mark R. Sisson
Applying Tabu Heuristic To Wind Influenced, Minimum Risk And Maximum Expected Coverage Routes, Mark R. Sisson
Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this thesis is to provide Air Combat Command a method for determining the number of predator unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) required to cover a pre-selected target. Extending previous research that employs reactive TABU search methods for deterministic vehicle routing problems, this thesis incorporates wind effects that can significantly alter the travel times for any given scenario. Additionally, it accounts for possible attrition by introducing minimum risk route and expected number of target covered to the objective function. The results of the TABU search and subsequent Monte-Carlo simulation: gives the number of predator's required to cover a target …