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Analyzing The Health Care Cost Curve: A Case Study., Robert D. Lieberthal

College of Population Health Faculty Papers

This case study uses data from a self-insured employer plan to perform an analysis into the properties of the health care cost curve. The analysis shows that one statistical property of the health care cost curve is that costs rise continuously, not on an annual or monthly basis. Graphical analysis indicates that managed care techniques used to restrain costs can also smooth utilization, producing the continuously growing cost curve observed. The analysis further illustrates that there is no one "cost curve"-analysis must be segmented by population. Finally, the power of predictive models to fit the cost curve varies by population. …