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How Can Econometrics Help Fight The Covid'19 Pandemic?, Kevin Alvarez, Vladik Kreinovich
How Can Econometrics Help Fight The Covid'19 Pandemic?, Kevin Alvarez, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
The current pandemic is difficult to model -- and thus, difficult to control. In contrast to the previous epidemics whose dynamics was smooth and well described by the existing models, the statistics of the current pandemic is highly oscillating. In this paper, we show that these oscillations can be explained if we take into account the disease's long incubation period -- as a result of which our control measures are determined by outdated data, showing number of infected people two weeks ago. To better control the pandemic, we propose to use the experience of economics, where also the effect of …
Covid-19 Peak Immunity Values Seem To Follow Lognormal Distribution, Julio Urenda, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich, Tonghui Wang
Covid-19 Peak Immunity Values Seem To Follow Lognormal Distribution, Julio Urenda, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich, Tonghui Wang
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
For the current pandemic, an important open problem is immunity: do people who had this disease become immune against further infections? In the immunity study, it is important to know how frequent are different levels of immunity, i.e., what is the probability distribution of the immunity levels. Different people have different rates of immunity dynamics: for some, immunity gets to the level faster, for others the immunity effect is slower. Similarly, in some patients, immunity stays longer, it others, it decreases faster. In view of this, an important characteristic is peak immunity. A recent study provides some statistics on the …