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Forecasting Economic Growth And Movements With Wavelet Transform And Arima Model, Omar Alsinglawi, Omar Alsinglawi, Mohammad Aladwan, Mohammad Aladwan, Saddam Alwadi, Saddam Alwadi
Forecasting Economic Growth And Movements With Wavelet Transform And Arima Model, Omar Alsinglawi, Omar Alsinglawi, Mohammad Aladwan, Mohammad Aladwan, Saddam Alwadi, Saddam Alwadi
Applied Mathematics & Information Sciences
This study uses historical data and modern statistical models to forecast future Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Jordan. The Wavelet Transformation model (WT) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model were applied to the time series data and yielded a best-fitting result of (2,1,1) for estimating GDP between 2022-2031. The study concludes that GDP is expected to increase with a positive growth rate of around 3.22%, and recommends government agencies to monitor GDP, strengthen existing policies, and adopt necessary economic reforms to support growth. Additionally, the private sector is encouraged to enhance production tools to achieve economic growth that benefits …
Arma Model Development And Analysis For Global Temperature Uncertainty, Mahmud Hasan, Gauree Wathodkar, Mathias Muia
Arma Model Development And Analysis For Global Temperature Uncertainty, Mahmud Hasan, Gauree Wathodkar, Mathias Muia
Faculty and Student Publications
Temperature uncertainty models for land and sea surfaces can be developed based on statistical methods. In this paper, we developed a novel time-series temperature uncertainty model, which is the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) (1,1) model. The model was developed for an observed annual mean temperature anomaly X(t), which is a combination of a true (latent) global anomaly Y(t) for a year (t) and normal variable w(t). The uncertainty is taken as the variance of w(t), which was divided into land surface temperature (LST) uncertainty, sea surface temperature (SST) uncertainty, and the corresponding source of uncertainty. The ARMA …