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Why People Tend To Overestimate Joint Probabilities, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Why People Tend To Overestimate Joint Probabilities, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich
Departmental Technical Reports (CS)
It is known that, in general, people overestimate the probabilities of joint events. In this paper, we provide an explanation for this phenomenon -- as explanation based on Laplace Indeterminacy Principle and Maximum Entropy approach.