Digital Commons Network^™

Tiresias And The Justices: Using Information Markets To Predict Supreme Court Decisions, Miriam A. Cherry, Robert L. Rogers

Faculty Publications

(Excerpt)

In ancient Greek mythology, oracles and seers could foretell the actions of gods and kings. With these predictions, ordinary citizens could glimpse the future actions of their rulers, and the recipients treasured those insights.

Such knowledge may be more than myth. This Article explores the power of the information market, an economic instrument that allows groups of participants to merge their collective knowledge to make predictions. Specifically, we discuss the application of information markets to predicting Supreme Court decisions. The implications are significant: Supreme Court rulings determine issues critical to American politics and business, ranging from the Fifth Amendment …

Markets For Markets: Origins And Subjects Of Information Markets, Miriam A. Cherry, Robert L. Rogers

Faculty Publications

(Excerpt)

After the death of Pope John Paul II, a papal conclave convened to elect his successor. The media speculated that certain candidates were the "frontrunners" to watch. At the same time, pools formed on web sites to predict the outcome of the conclave, either for fun (using virtual money) or for profit. Throughout the days that the conclave met in April of 2005, trading continued, and ultimately the various markets predicted both that Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger would emerge as the next pope and that he would choose the name Benedict XVI. After the white smoke signifying a new pope …