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Interest Rate Linkages And Capital Market Integration: Evidence From The Americas, Bharat Bhalla, Anand Shetty Oct 2006

Interest Rate Linkages And Capital Market Integration: Evidence From The Americas, Bharat Bhalla, Anand Shetty

CRIF Seminar series

In this paper, we study the long-run co-movement among the real interest rates of the U.S., Canada, and a select group of Latin American countries to assess the extent of financial market integration between these countries during a period of high capital mobility. The findings of the study support a long-run relationship between the short-term U.S. real interest rate and those of the Latin American countries, while it fails to support such a relationship between the U.S. and Canadian real interest rates.


Predicting A Currency Crisis Alternative Approaches And Applications To The Philippines, Fernando Antonio Iv Castillo Jan 2006

Predicting A Currency Crisis Alternative Approaches And Applications To The Philippines, Fernando Antonio Iv Castillo

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

An arrival of a currency crisis can be anticipated through a comprehensive and properly specified Early Warning System (“EWS”). The costs that entail with experiencing a currency crisis far exceed the costs of spending a considerable amount of time to developing an EWS. In a report done by the IMF(1998), they estimated that emerging economies suffer an 8% cumulative loss in real output during a severe currency crisis. Likewise, evidence suggests that a simple look at traditional market indicators of currency and default risks will not provide much advance warning of an impending currency crisis. In a study done by …