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Climate Change Impacts On Water Demand And Salinity In California's Irrigated Agriculture, Gerrit Schoups, Edwin P. Maurer, Jan Hopmans
Climate Change Impacts On Water Demand And Salinity In California's Irrigated Agriculture, Gerrit Schoups, Edwin P. Maurer, Jan Hopmans
Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering
This paper examines potential regional-scale impacts of climate change on sustainability of irrigated agriculture, focusing on the western San Joaquin Valley in California. We consider potential changes in irrigation water demand and supply, and quantify impacts on the hydrologic system, soil and groundwater salinity with associated crop yield reductions. Our analysis is based on archived output from General Circulation Model (GCM) climate projections through 2100, which were downscaled to the 1,400 km2 study area. We account for uncertainty in GCM climate projections by considering two different GCM's, each using three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Significant uncertainty in projected precipitation creates …