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Devaluation, Short-Run Supply Response, And The J-Curve, Alexander L. Brown

Honors Papers

This paper will attempt to empirically illustrate the contribution of short-run supply adjustment to the U.S. J-curve. I plan to study, on the major industry division level (2 digit SIC), 15 manufacturing sectors of the united states. Their supply movements will be calculated in terms of total short-run adjustment. These statistics will then be compared to the trade balance (J-curve) for the U.S. to see if the supply movements of U.S. manufacturers can explain the continued drop in U.S. international trade. If the theory is supported few industries will adjust quickly in the short-run, reflecting the slow adjustment of aggregate …

The Presidential Business Cycle In The U.S.: A Theoretical And Empirical Examination, Ranjit S. Dighe

Honors Papers

The idea of a politically-motivated business cycle is basically a conspiracy theory: "office-motivated" politicians, seeking to exploit the well-documented relationship between favorable economic news and votes for the incumbent president and his party, manipulate the timing of business cycles for their own electoral gain. This manipulation, theorists maintain, is effected through the use of any of several policy instruments including discretionary federal spending, government transfer payments, and the average tax rate, as well as pressure on the central bank to pursue a more accommodating monetary policy.

Theories of such a cycle seem to fall in and out of favor with …