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Analyzing Country Risk: Estimating The Probability Of External Debt Repudiation In The Post-Oil-Embargo Decade, Thomas Joseph Webster

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation examines the use of logit analysis as a tool for assessing the likelihood that a sovereign risk cannot, or will not, adhere to the terms of its foreign debt obligations as a result of adverse political, social, economic, or financial disruptions. The discussion is divided into two parts. Part one is devoted to a review of the topic of assessing the likelihood of debt servicing difficulties by borrower nations by first tracing the growth of international bank lending activities by U.S. commercial banks, followed by a general discussion of the international debt crisis and a brief survey of …