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Three Essays On Oil Scarcity, Global Warming And Energy Prices, Matthew Riddle
Three Essays On Oil Scarcity, Global Warming And Energy Prices, Matthew Riddle
Open Access Dissertations
This dissertation is composed of three essays. In the first essay, I construct a supply and demand model for crude oil markets. I then fit the model to historical price and quantity data to be able to project future oil prices. Ex-post forecasts using this model predict historical price trends more accurately than most oil forecasting models. The second essay incorporates the supply and demand model from the previous paper into a complex systems model that also includes oil futures markets. Adaptive-agent investors in futures markets choose from a set of rules for predicting future prices that includes the rational …