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Economics

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2003

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Determinantes Explícitos E Implícitos De La Deuda Externa Pública Peruana, José Manuel Martin Coronado Dec 2003

Determinantes Explícitos E Implícitos De La Deuda Externa Pública Peruana, José Manuel Martin Coronado

José-Manuel Martin Coronado

This research aims to prove that sound economic policies are nothing more that basic conditions for the foreign public debt problem. In fact, by studying the factors of public debt issues in Peru, Latin America and the emerging economies it’s clear that some implicit economic and non-economic factors have to be considered because of the social complexity and variable characteristics in emerging economies. This causes failures in economic policies assumptions, inefficiencies, distorted causality and nonrational behavior. This paper proposes, first, to perform a deep and comparative analysis of the foreign debt determinants in emerging economies, then, to allocate financial resources, …

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Improving Economic Literacy: The Role Of Concurrent Enrollment Programs, Jerry M. Eversky, Donald H. Dutowsky, Gerald S. Edmonds Dec 2003

Improving Economic Literacy: The Role Of Concurrent Enrollment Programs, Jerry M. Eversky, Donald H. Dutowsky, Gerald S. Edmonds

Jerry Evensky

This paper introduces Concurrent Enrollment Programs (CEPs), within the context of Syracuse University Project Advance (PA) Economics, as a way to improve economic literacy. We describe measures implemented to operate PA Economics as a high-quality CEP, as well as the National Alliance of Concurrent Education Partnerships to establish national standards. This study also contains results from administering to high school students taking PA Economics the nationally normed Test of Economic Literacy (TEL). PA students average nearly one percentage point higher than the AP/Honors Economics Group, and score considerably better than AP/Honors Economics in fundamentals and international economics. By cognitive level, …

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The Camel's Nose Is In The Tent: Rules, Theories And Slippery Slopes, Mario Rizzo, Glen Whitman Dec 2003

The Camel's Nose Is In The Tent: Rules, Theories And Slippery Slopes, Mario Rizzo, Glen Whitman

Mario Rizzo

The authors provide a general theory for understanding and evaluating slippery slope arguments (SSAs) and their associated slippery slope events (SSEs). The central feature of the theory is a structure of discussion within which all arguments take place. The structure is multi-layered, consisting of decisions, rules, theories,and research programs. Each layer influences and shapes the layer beneath: rules influences decisions, theories influence the choice of rules, and research programs influence the choice of theories. In this structure, SSAs take the form of meta-arguments, as they purport to predict the future development of arguments in this structure. Evaluating such arguments requires …

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Estimating Auction Revenues For The Proposed Fcc Sale Of 3g Spectrum For Broadband And Advanced Wireless Services, Peter Cramton Dec 2003

Estimating Auction Revenues For The Proposed Fcc Sale Of 3g Spectrum For Broadband And Advanced Wireless Services, Peter Cramton

Peter Cramton

No abstract provided.

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Optimal Fiscal Policy In An Economy Facing Socio-Political Instability, Chetan Ghate, Quan Vu Le, Paul J. Zak Nov 2003

Optimal Fiscal Policy In An Economy Facing Socio-Political Instability, Chetan Ghate, Quan Vu Le, Paul J. Zak

Chetan Ghate

The paper presents a model of optimal government policy when policy choices may exacerbate sociopolitical instability (SPI). The authors show that optimal policy that takes into account SPI transforms a standard concave growth model into a model with both a poverty trap and endogenous growth. The resulting equilibrium dynamics inherit the properties of government policies and need not be monotone. Indeed, for a broad set of conditions, government policy is unable to eliminate the poverty trap; when these conditions do not hold, “most” countries eventually reach a balanced growth path. The predictions of the model are tested by developing three …

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Bring The President's Nerds Back In From The Cold, Robert Hahn, Scott J. Wallsten Oct 2003

Bring The President's Nerds Back In From The Cold, Robert Hahn, Scott J. Wallsten

Scott J. Wallsten

No abstract provided.

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Partners In Forest Conservation: "Willingness-To_Work" (Wtw) To Protect Local Forest Resources In Calakmul, Campeche, Mexico , James F. Casey Oct 2003

Partners In Forest Conservation: "Willingness-To_Work" (Wtw) To Protect Local Forest Resources In Calakmul, Campeche, Mexico , James F. Casey

James F Casey

No abstract provided.

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The Political Power Of The Retirees In A Two-Dimensional Voting Model, Georges Casamatta Oct 2003

The Political Power Of The Retirees In A Two-Dimensional Voting Model, Georges Casamatta

Georges Casamatta

We show that the retirees are able to obtain favorable pension policies whereas they belong to a minority in the population. The argument relies on the multidimensional nature of the political process. We consider a two-dimensional collective choice problem. The first of these choices is the level of the contribution rate to the Pay-As-You- Gopension system. The second is a noneconomic decision, unrelated to the pension system. Using a political agency model, we show that, as soon as the retirees are sufficiently numerous, the equilibrium tax rate may be higher than the tax rate preferred by the young, who yet …

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The Strategic Importance Of U.S.-South Korea Economic Relations, Marcus Noland, Taeho Bark Oct 2003

The Strategic Importance Of U.S.-South Korea Economic Relations, Marcus Noland, Taeho Bark

Marcus Noland

Due to the still critical nature of the United States-Republic of Korea (U.S.-ROK) alliance, diplomatic and economic relations between the two nations assume larger than usual importance. This fourth NBR Special Report examines whether economic ties could diffuse conflict in other aspects of the bilateral relationship, or whether economic irritants might be a source of further bilateral tensions. In the Foreword, Stephen W. Bosworth, former Ambassador to the Republic of Korea and current Dean of the Fletcher School at Tufts University, places the importance of United States-Republic of Korea relations in the broader context of ongoing changes in Northeast Asia. …

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Long-Run Inflation-Unemployment Dynamics: The Spanish Phillips Curve And Economic Policy, Marika Karanassou, Hector Sala, Dennis Snower Oct 2003

Long-Run Inflation-Unemployment Dynamics: The Spanish Phillips Curve And Economic Policy, Marika Karanassou, Hector Sala, Dennis Snower

Dennis Snower

This paper takes a new look at the long-run dynamics of inflation and unemployment in response to permanent changes in the growth rate of the money supply. We examine the Phillips curve from the perspective of what we call “frictional growth”, i.e. the interaction between money growth and nominal frictions. After presenting theoretical models of this phenomenon, we construct an empirical model of the Spanish economy and, in this context, we evaluate the long-run in‡ation-unemployment tradeo¤ for Spain and examine how recent policy changes have a¤ected it.

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The Relativity Of Risk Assessments In Investment Decisions, Michael Sack Elmaleh Sep 2003

The Relativity Of Risk Assessments In Investment Decisions, Michael Sack Elmaleh

Michael Sack Elmaleh

The level of risk in investing in a closely held firm is related to the qualifications of the control managing investor. While there is generally a minimum threshold of expertise and capital that a control investor must possess, beyond this threshold the potential levels of expertise and capital can vary significantly. The level of enterprise risk is inversely related to the level of expertise and capital possessed by the control investor. The more resources and expertise the investor possesses, the less the operational risk. Thus enterprise risk is a relative and not an inherent fixed property of an enterprise. Furthermore, …

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Can Insider Power Affect Employment?, Dennis Snower, Pilar Diaz-Vazquez Sep 2003

Can Insider Power Affect Employment?, Dennis Snower, Pilar Diaz-Vazquez

Dennis Snower

Do firms reduce employment when their insiders (established, incumbent employees) claim higher wages? The conventional answer in the theoretical literature is that insider power has no in‡uence on employment, provided that the newly hired employees (entrants) receive their reservation wages. The reason given is that an increase in insider wages gives rise to a countervailing fall in reservation wages, leaving the present value of wage costs unchanged. Our analysis contradicts this conventional answer. We show that, in the context of a stochastic model of the labor market, an increase in insider wages promotes firing in recessions, while leaving hiring in …

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Análisis Y Recomendaciones Para Una Reforma De La Ley De Quiebras, Claudio Bonilla, Ronald Fischer, Rolf Lüders, Rafael Mery Sep 2003

Análisis Y Recomendaciones Para Una Reforma De La Ley De Quiebras, Claudio Bonilla, Ronald Fischer, Rolf Lüders, Rafael Mery

Rafael Mery

Este trabajo presenta una evaluación general del sistema de quiebras en Chile, así como propuestas para mejorar el funcionamiento de éste. El trabajo incluye una comparación del sistema chileno con los sistemas de quiebras de otros países. Por último, presenta antecedentes sobre la tasa de recuperación de créditos; las costas y la duración de los procesos de quiebra; y la tasa de recuperación de acreencias en función del orden de prelación de los acreedores. Se muestra que el proceso de quiebras sufre una serie de deficiencias: i) las impugnaciones entorpecen los procedimientos, ii) el mecanismo de elección de síndicos no …

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The Latest Misfires In Support Of The ‘More Guns, Less Crime’ Hypothesis, John Donohue, Ian Ayres Aug 2003

The Latest Misfires In Support Of The ‘More Guns, Less Crime’ Hypothesis, John Donohue, Ian Ayres

John Donohue

No abstract provided.

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Shooting Down The ‘More Guns, Less Crime’ Hypothesis, John Donohue, Ian Ayres Aug 2003

Shooting Down The ‘More Guns, Less Crime’ Hypothesis, John Donohue, Ian Ayres

John Donohue

No abstract provided.

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The Income Method Of Valuation: A False Analogy Between Bonds And Stocks, Michael Sack Elmaleh Jul 2003

The Income Method Of Valuation: A False Analogy Between Bonds And Stocks, Michael Sack Elmaleh

Michael Sack Elmaleh

The discounting of future income streams by a risk adjusted rate of return by proponents of the income method reflects a misplaced faith in the ability to project accurately future income streams and pick out the “right” rate of return. Future income streams are fairly reliably predictable when analyzing a debt instrument. However, equity investment future income streams are notoriously unpredictable. Similarly assessing the risk associated with realizing returns from a fixed security is comparatively easy in comparison with assessing the risks associated with equity returns. The widely used Beta has not proved to be a very stable measure of …

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On The Measurement Of Trade-Induced Adjustment, A. K.M. Azhar, Robert J.R. Elliott Jul 2003

On The Measurement Of Trade-Induced Adjustment, A. K.M. Azhar, Robert J.R. Elliott

Robert J R Elliott

Globalisation and closer regional integration has led to significant increases in trade between nations that in turn impacts on existing long standing trade partnerships. A consequence of changing trade patterns is an increase in the pressure for resources to reallocate between industries and sectors. This paper provides an integrated approach to the analysis of trade induced adjustment that complements the existing literature. Adjustment pressures are documented in accordance with the theoretical underpinnings of the smooth adjustment hypothesis and satisfy a number of desirable criteria, monotonicity, consistency and country specificity. The applicability of our approach is examined using UK manufacturing data.

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Labor Market Institutions And Macroeconomic Shocks, Yu-Fu Chen, Dennis Snower, Gylfi Zoega Jun 2003

Labor Market Institutions And Macroeconomic Shocks, Yu-Fu Chen, Dennis Snower, Gylfi Zoega

Dennis Snower

Macroeconomic shocks and labour-market institutions jointly determine employment growth and economic performance. The effect of shocks depends on the nature of these institutions and the effect of institutional change depends on the macroeconomic environment. It follows that a given set of institutions may be appropriate in one epoch and not in another. We derive a dynamic model of labour demand in which the effect of firing costs on labour demand depends on the macroeconomic environment: When the level of macroeconomic activity is expected to drop and/or the trend rate of productivity growth is small, a rise in firing costs affects …

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Gujarat Elections 2002: Vote Shares Across Regions, Srijit Mishra May 2003

Gujarat Elections 2002: Vote Shares Across Regions, Srijit Mishra

Srijit Mishra

This paper attempts to analyse in each constituency vote shares accruing to the two major parties in the state with the use of triplot or ternary diagram method. A triplot enables a two-dimensional display of three categories of shares or proportions, in this case vote shares, accruing to the BJP, Congress and ‘others’. Triplot diagrams provide a thematic representation of the fact that an increase in vote shares of BJP and to a lesser extent the Congress does have a relationship with the decline of ‘other’ contestants.

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Do Investors Demand Higher Rates Of Return On Risky Investments In Closely Held Small Businesses?, Michael Sack Elmaleh May 2003

Do Investors Demand Higher Rates Of Return On Risky Investments In Closely Held Small Businesses?, Michael Sack Elmaleh

Michael Sack Elmaleh

Investors in small closely held firms often are oblivious to risk if the rewards are perceived to be sufficiently high. Risk may also be ignored because such investors seek more than just increased cash flow. These investors often seek higher order psychological returns such as job challenge and status.

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Bargaining Without A Common Prior – An Immediate Agreement Theorem, Muhamet Yildiz May 2003

Bargaining Without A Common Prior – An Immediate Agreement Theorem, Muhamet Yildiz

Muhamet Yildiz

In sequential bargaining models without outside options, each player’s bargaining power is ultimately determined by which player will make an offer and when. This paper analyzes a sequential bargaining model in which players may hold different beliefs about which player will make an offer and when. Excessive optimism about making offers in the future can cause delays in agreement. The main result states that, despite this, if players will remain sufficiently optimistic for a sufficiently long future, then in equilibrium they will agree immediately. This result is also extended to other canonical models of optimism.

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The Early History Of The Central Bank Of Bosnia And Herzegovina, Warren Coats Apr 2003

The Early History Of The Central Bank Of Bosnia And Herzegovina, Warren Coats

Warren Coats

The CBBH opened its doors for business on August 11, 1997 with monetary liabilities of DM 132,584,030.72 million and an equal amount of foreign currency assets. Over ten months later, by the end of June 1998, the CBBH’s monetary liabilities were DM 123 million, a modest decline. By the end of 1998, however, the size of the central bank had jumped to DM 254 million, almost double its opening size. It has grown very rapidly ever since and by the end of 2002, the CBBH’s foreign currency assets stood at DM 2.5 billion—a truly astounding growth.

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Equilibrium Dynamics In The One-Sector Endogenous Growth Model With Physical And Human Capital, Manuel A. Gómez Apr 2003

Equilibrium Dynamics In The One-Sector Endogenous Growth Model With Physical And Human Capital, Manuel A. Gómez

Manuel A. Gómez

This paper concerns the transitional dynamics of the one sector endogenous growth model with physical and human capital when gross investments are irreversible. It has been claimed that the transition path is on the stable saddle path of the system that describes the dynamics of the economy as long as the constraint on nonnegative gross investment in one of the factors is binding. We show that this does not have to be the case. The dynamics can be determined by noting that the continuity of the shadow prices involves the continuity of the consumption path.

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Effects Of Flat-Rate Taxes: To What Extent Does The Leisure Specification Matter?, Manuel A. Gómez Apr 2003

Effects Of Flat-Rate Taxes: To What Extent Does The Leisure Specification Matter?, Manuel A. Gómez

Manuel A. Gómez

This paper explores the implications that the specification of the leisure activity has on the effects of alternative forms of taxation in a two-sector endogenous growth model of the U.S. economy. Growth and welfare effects of tax reforms are shown to depend markedly on the leisure specification. We also compute the optimal tax structure of factor incomes and consumption taxation. The optimal tax rate on capital income is rather robust to the leisure specification. However, the balance between consumption and labor income taxation and the effects of shifting to the optimal tax structure vary considerably across leisure specifications.

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The Role Of Valuation Specialists: Telling It Like It Is Or Telling It Like It Ought To Be, Michael Sack Elmaleh Mar 2003

The Role Of Valuation Specialists: Telling It Like It Is Or Telling It Like It Ought To Be, Michael Sack Elmaleh

Michael Sack Elmaleh

While the buying and selling of businesses based on formulas may not be the soundest method of pricing a business the more rigorous methods do not always provide the best guidance either. Ideally prospective buyers should have knowledge of both formula methods and the more rigorous approaches.

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Upset Pricing In Auction Markets: An Overview, Peter Cramton, Susan Athey, Allan Ingraham Mar 2003

Upset Pricing In Auction Markets: An Overview, Peter Cramton, Susan Athey, Allan Ingraham

Peter Cramton

US-Canada Softwood Lumber Trade Dispute, On behalf of British Columbia Ministry of Forests.

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Competitive Bidding Behavior In Uniform-Price Auction Markets, Peter Cramton Mar 2003

Competitive Bidding Behavior In Uniform-Price Auction Markets, Peter Cramton

Peter Cramton

For Duke Energy.

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Rebuttal Addendum: Assessment Of Submissions Of The California Parties, Peter Cramton Mar 2003

Rebuttal Addendum: Assessment Of Submissions Of The California Parties, Peter Cramton

Peter Cramton

No abstract provided.

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Competitive Bidding Behavior In Uniform-Price Auction Markets, Peter Cramton Mar 2003

Competitive Bidding Behavior In Uniform-Price Auction Markets, Peter Cramton

Peter Cramton

Profit-maximizing bidding in uniform price auction markets involves bidding above marginal cost. It therefore is not surprising that such behavior is observed in electricity markets. Common bidding behavior such as “hockey stick” bids easily are explained by suppliers determining their supply offers to maximize profits. This incentive to bid above marginal cost is not the result of coordinated action among the bidders. Rather, each bidder is independently selecting its bid to maximize profits based on its estimate of the residual demand curve it faces. Profit-maximizing bidding does not mean that “the sky’s the limit.” Typically, bidders are limited in how …

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Novos Paradigmas Do Ensino E Sistemas Integrados De Informações Em Engenharia: Uma Convergência Na Melhoria Da Aprendizagem, Eloi Martins Senhoras Feb 2003

Novos Paradigmas Do Ensino E Sistemas Integrados De Informações Em Engenharia: Uma Convergência Na Melhoria Da Aprendizagem, Eloi Martins Senhoras

Elói Martins Senhoras

No abstract provided.

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