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Logic, Co-Ordination And The Envelope Of Our Beliefs, Rohit J. Parikh

Publications and Research

Each of us has a story which we can think of as a set of beliefs, hopefully consistent. We make our decisions in view of our beliefs which may be probabilistic, in the general case, but simple yes or no as in this paper. Our beliefs are our envelope just as the shell of a tortoise is its envelope.

Decision theory - or single agent game theory tells us when to make the best choice in a game of us against nature. But nature has no desire to further or frustrate our efforts. Nature is mysterious but not malign.

Things …

Algorithmic Rationality, Rohit J. Parikh

Publications and Research

The notion of rationality is much discussed by both Economists and Philosophers. Perhaps you are rational if you accept certain axioms of rationality. If you prefer A to B and B to C then you must prefer A to C. Or you can define rationality in terms of the net results of your behavior. We examine a notion of algorithmic rationality. Even animals upwards from the humble tick carry out algorithms. Are they rational? And can we use this theory to define the IQ of animals?

Theory Of Collective Action, Rohit J. Parikh

Publications and Research

Theory predicts that when people pursue their selfish aims then it leads to suboptimal outcomes for society or to the group they belong to. The prisoner's dilemma and the tragedy of the commons are classic examples. In her presidential lecture to the American Political Science Association Elinor Ostrom examined this fact and also noted that in practice people do not always follow the suboptimal strategy. What does she suggest? This document consists of slides I created giving an account of her paper. She had not won the Nobel when she gave this talk but it was conferred on her later.

How Groupy Is A Group?, Rohit J. Parikh

Publications and Research

Various Cooperating Groups

Why and how do they cooperate

Bees

Chinese troops

BLM demonstrators

The reasons are different in the three cases.

1) Bees cooperate because they are all sisters who have thesame DNA. From a purely evolutionary point of view the survival of one is the survival of all.

2) Chinese troops cooperate because they are obeying a single commander.

3) Black lives people cooperate because they have a single goal, and they have communicated to be together at one time and place.

The purpose of this work is to provide a definition of the "amount" of groupiness, revealed …

After The Cambridge Controversies: Reflections Old And New, Harvey Gram

Publications and Research

Perfect foresight is a consequence of applying the Pontryagin Maximum Principle to the analysis of an intertemporal general equilibrium. For this reason, the capital theory controversy ended in an intellectual impasse. The critique of mainstream theory largely ignored the perfect foresight entailments of intertemporal equilibrium analysis, while its defenders, with notable exceptions, too often failed to acknowledge this implication of the technique of dynamic programming. From this standpoint, the long debate over the existence or non-existence of an aggregate production function is secondary. This leaves open the theoretical question of how to proceed with an analysis of the actual dynamics …

Scarcity Or Economic Insecurity? Two Yardsticks For Measuring Capitalism’S Performance, Costas Panayotakis

Publications and Research

This article argues that capitalism’s relationship to economic insecurity is as important for the evaluation of that system as its relationship to scarcity. Critically analyzing the neoclassical and Marxist focus on capitalism’s relationship to scarcity, the article describes how capitalism’s relationship to economic insecurity offers a more cogent elaboration of these traditions’ shared belief that the economic system should serve people. In particular, while critical of the neoclassical portrayal of capitalism as a system using scarce resources efficiently, this paper also argues, against Marxism, that an alternative to capitalism might be preferable even if scarcity is not abolished.

Fast Estimation Of Matrix Exponential Spatial Models, Ye Yang, Osman Doğan, Süleyman Taşpınar

Publications and Research

The matrix exponential spatial specification (MESS) is an alternative to the spatial autoregressive-type (SAR-type) specifications with several attractive properties. The spatial dependence in the MESS-type models is formulated through a matrix exponential term, and the estimation of these models may require the computation of the matrix exponential terms many times in an estimation procedure. In the literature, it is well documented that the computation of the matrix exponential terms can pose challenges in terms of reliability, stability, accuracy, and efficiency. We propose a matrix-vector products approach based on the truncation of Taylor series expansion of the matrix exponential terms for …

The Case For Public Investment In Higher Pay For New York State Home Care Workers: Estimated Costs And Savings, Isaac Jabola-Carolus, Stephanie Luce, Ruth Milkman

Publications and Research

This report explores one potential solution to the mounting home care labor shortage in New York State: substantially raising wages for the state's home care workers. The analysis presents detailed projections, based on the best available data, of the economic effects of such an intervention, estimating the costs and benefits that would result. We find that public funding to raise home care wages would require significant resources, but those costs would be surpassed by the resulting savings, tax revenues, and economic spillover effects. The net economic gain would total at least $3.7 billion. Lifting wages would also help fill nearly …

O Espaço E O Tempo Do Valor, David Harvey, Artur Renzo

Publications and Research

O artigo discute a lei do valor em Karl Marx como valor em movimento, que se faz valer no espaço e no tempo. Entende-se que o movimento não pode ocorrer no vácuo, sendo necessário abandonar a visão do valor que se move sem estar ancorado em nenhum lugar e passar a enxergá-lo criando geografias de cidades e redes de transportes; formando paisagens agrícolas para a produção de alimentos e matérias-primas; englobando fluxos de pessoas, bens e informações; determinando configurações territoriais de valores fundiários e habilidades de trabalho; organizando espaços de trabalho, estruturas de governo e administração. Conclui-se que há três …

The Cost Effectiveness Of Mental Health Treatment In The Lifetime Of Older Adults With Hiv In New York City: A Markov Approach, Juan J. Delacruz, Mark Brennan-Ing, Andreas Kakolyris, Omar Martinez

Publications and Research

Background

There are noticeable gaps in knowledge regarding the cost and effectiveness of integrated medical and behavioral services for older adults with HIV. Their lifespan is close to the population’s level but their quality of life has sharply declined due to depression and substance use. Mental health disorders are widespread among an aging population with HIV. Objective The aim of this study was to build a decision analytic model to evaluate medical interventions with and without mental health treatment using primary data of 139 older adults with HIV and health outcomes from the literature.

Methods

We tracked the progression of …

Economic Insecurity And Social Stability: An Exploration Of One Of Capitalism’S Vicious Cycles, Costas Panayotakis

Publications and Research

This article analyzes how capitalism’s connection to economic insecurity can, rather than fomenting social unrest, facilitate its reproduction. Also responding to contrasts in the literature between rising insecurity in recent decades and the containment of insecurity in capitalism’s post-war ‘golden age,’ this article explains why growing insecurity is more consistent with capitalism’s normal operation. Underlining the difficulty of replicating post-war efforts to mitigate insecurity through social and welfare policies, this article also sketches how the vicious cycle between capitalism and economic insecurity contributes to other serious social problems, including racism, sexism, xenophobia, the hollowing out of political democracy and a …

Beyond The Capitalist Workplace: How The Production Of Surplus Across The Economy Keeps Producers Divided, Costas Panayotakis

Publications and Research

This article analyzes the public and household sectors of the economy as sites of surplus production within contemporary capitalist societies. It also shows how the coexistence of structurally distinct spheres of surplus production creates divisions among workers in the private, public, and household sectors of the economy, thus amplifying the racial, gender, and other divisions which have often in the past kept working people divided. Fueling these cross-sector divisions is the appearance that private-sector workers are paid for their labor rather than for their labor-power. Thus, this article also explores an implication of this appearance which Karl Marx, the thinker …

The Quest For Greener Pastures: Evaluating The Livelihoods Impacts Of Providing Vegetation Condition Maps To Pastoralists In Eastern Africa, Elia Machado, Helene Purcell, Andrew M. Simons, Stephanie Swinehart

Publications and Research

The survival of millions of pastoral households in Eastern Africa has become increasingly at risk. Due to mounting socioeconomic and climatic stressors, pastoral households are faced with making migration decisions under increasing uncertainty about resource availability and limited coping strategies. We assess the potential of providing vegetation condition maps to support the migration decision of pastoralists in Ethiopia and Tanzania and the effect of map usage on their herd condition and size. The maps were generated from remotely sensed data using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a proxy for vegetation condition and overlain with pastoralists’ preferred grazing areas. …

Stock Market Transmission Channel Of Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence From Turkey, Ilhami Gunduz

Publications and Research

Monetary policy is one of the instruments that policymakers use to provide both sustainable economic growth and price stability. In this study, I analyze the stock market transmission channel of the monetary policy of the Turkish economy not only at the aggregate but also at the sectoral level in a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework. I adopt alternative variables as a policy instrument. When the spread is used as a policy instrument, I find that contractionary monetary policy has a significant negative effect on both output and the price level, and it appreciates the Turkish Lira. Besides, the tight monetary …

Pricing Climate Change Risk In Corporate Bonds, Elsa Allman

Publications and Research

This paper examines whether corporate bondholders price climate change risk. I find that firms exposed to higher sea level rise (SLR) across U.S. branch locations pay a premium when issuing bonds. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in a firm’s SLR exposure is associated with a 2% increase of average yield spreads equivalent to 4 basis points. This effect is more pronounced for firms in industries vulnerable to extreme weather conditions, which are less spatially diversified, and issuing bonds with maturities ranging from 5 to 10 years. In addition, I find no evidence that credit rating agencies account for SLR …

Medical Resource Use And Costs Of Treating Sickle Cell-Related Vaso-Occlusive Crisis Episodes: A Retrospective Claims Study, Nirmish Shah, Menaka Bhor, Lin Xie, Jincy Paulose, Huseyin Yuce

Publications and Research

Background: The study investigated the economic burden of vaso-occlusive crisis (VOC) among sickle cell disease (SCD) patients, through assessment of overall utilization and costs and costs per VOC episode (regarding the number of VOC episodes and health care setting, respectively).

Methods: Using the Medicaid Analytic Extracts database, the first SCD-related diagnosis claim (index claim) between June 1, 2009–December 31, 2012 was identified among eligible adults. Patients were required to have continuous medical and pharmacy benefits for 6 months pre- and 12 months post-index. Discrete VOC claims identified within a 3-day gap were combined as a single VOC episode. Annual all-cause …

Shocks To Aggregate Demand And Aggregate Supply In The Midst Of Covid-19, Anna M. Gellerman

Publications and Research

COVID-19 sent shockwaves throughout the economy, changing the amounts of goods and services distributed and altering the demand. This article discusses the negative demand shock and adverse supply shock that the U.S. economy faced in 2020, and the policies that the government implemented to reverse these effects.

The End Of Zero Returns And The Last Dollar: Can New York State Create A Collective Store Of Value, Crowdsource Wealth, And Fund Its Colleges And Universities Using Cryptocurrency?, Edward Lehner

Publications and Research

This brief personal statement, citing the previous work of the Bronx Community College Cryptocurrency Research Laboratory (BCC Lab), advocates for a private New York State Money to fund New York State’s public higher education. Attempting to shed most of the academic language and the formalities of research-driven writing, this short statement frames two distinct arguments. The first contention is that New York State residents need a means by which to store value outside of the traditional banking and financial systems due to massive Federal Reserve printing that is centered primarily on rescuing fledgling Wall Street profits and mitigating reckless businesses …

Does Applying Deep Learning In Financial Sentiment Analysis Lead To Better Classification Performance?, Tao Wang, Changhe Yuan, Cuiyuan Wang

Publications and Research

Using a unique data set from Seeking Alpha, we compare the deep learning approach with traditional machine learning approaches in classifying financial text. We apply the long short-term memory (LSTM) as the deep learning method and Naive Bayes, SVM, Logistic Regression, XGBoost as the traditional machine learning approaches. The results suggest that the LSTM model outperforms the conventional machine learning methods on all metrics. Based on the tSNE graph, the success of the LSTM model is partially explained as the high-accuracy LSTM model distinguishes between positive and negative important sentiment words while those words are chosen based on SHAP values …

Integrative And Contextual Learning In College Algebra: An Interdisciplinary Collaboration With Economics, Choon Shan Lai, Glenn Henshaw, Tao Chen, Soloman Kone

Publications and Research

Many students consider mathematics too abstract and useless for their academic and career goals. Meanwhile, instructors in quantitative disciplines such as economics find many students mathematically underprepared for their courses. The disconnect between students’ perceptions of the utility of mathematics and their life and career may have contributed to some of the under-performance in learning mathematics. Addressing this problem requires collaboration across disciplines to develop an understanding of each other’s needs, more specifically to develop an integrative platform that allows students to apply mathematical skills in interdisciplinary contexts (Ganter & Barker, 2004). We collaboratively designed and implemented an integrative platform …

Keynesian Uncertainty: The Great Divide Between Joan Robinson And Paul Samuelson In Their Correspondence And Public Exchanges, Harvey Gram, G. C. Harcourt

Publications and Research

Joan Robinson and Paul Samuelson found little to agree upon in a correspondence which began in 1946, shortly after the death of Keynes, and ended a year prior to Robinson’s death in 1983. One way to read the correspondence is to keep in mind that Keynesian uncertainty was central to Robinson’s understanding of how capitalist economies function. Samuelson, never impressed by Keynes’s handling of uncertainty, understood capital theory—if not capitalism—in terms of dynamic programming, with its perfect foresight entailments. This is evident throughout his letters to Robinson, although rarely acknowledged in a straightforward way, particularly during the period from 1971 …

Public Education, The State, And The Crisis, Hakan Yilmaz

Publications and Research

This paper aims to construct a framework for understanding the causes and dynamics of the wave of teacher strikes that took place in 2018-19. To do this, the paper first analyzes the constraints under which the state managers function and describes the relationship between the state and public education. Second, it summarizes a theoretical framework for understanding the Great Recession and describes the influence of neoliberal policy orthodoxy on the reaction to the Great Recession. Third, it provides empirical evidence that displays how following the Great Recession, the constraints of the state actors and implementation of certain policies reduced spending …

The Distributional Short-Term Impact Of The Covid-19 Crisis On Wages In The United States, Yonatan Berman

Publications and Research

This paper uses Bureau of Labor Statistics employment and wage data to study the distributional impact of the COVID-19 crisis on wages in the United States by mid-April. It answers whether wages of lower-wage workers decreased more than others', and to what extent. We find that the COVID-19 outbreak exacerbates existing inequalities. Workers at the bottom quintile in mid-March were three times more likely to be laid off by mid-April compared to higher-wage workers. Weekly wages of workers at the bottom quintile decreased by 6% on average between mid-February and mid-March and by 26% between mid-March and mid-April. The average …

Neoliberalism And Financialization In Turkey, Hakan Yilmaz

Publications and Research

This paper summarizes the process of financialization under the neoliberal restructuring of the Turkish economy. First, it discusses the political and economic context that led to the restructuring. Then, it elaborates the first stage of Turkish neoliberalism and financialization under the ANAP government, and the various coalition governments throughout 1990s. Then, it describes the second stage of this process under the Neoliberal Populist regime of the AKP government. Finally, it tries to locate neoliberalism and financialization in the country’s long-term capitalist development. In this context, the paper aims to display the connection between Marx’s tendency of the rate of profit …

Vision Zero: Speed Limit Reduction And Traffic Injury Prevention In New York City, Kristin Mammen, Hyoung Suk Shim, Bryan S. Weber

Publications and Research

We examine the effect on the incidence of casualties and crashes of a city-wide vehicle speed limit reduction in New York City (NYC) streets. The law change, part of Mayor Bill de Blasio’s Vision Zero Action Plan to improve traffic safety, cuts the default speed limit for streets with no speed limit signs from 30 to 25 mph beginning November 7, 2014. We use a monthly panel dataset with crash statistics for the entire population of NYC streets, from July 2012 through March 2019. Several difference-in-differences regressions show a statistically significant and meaningful decline in injuries and crashes.

Children’S Gender And Investments From Nonresident Fathers, Kristin Mammen

Publications and Research

Evidence suggests that fathers have stronger ties to sons than daughters, which may result in differential investments in their children. This paper investigated whether girls’ gender restricts their access to fathers' contributions if they do not live together. The data used were the 1994-2008 March/April Match Current Population Survey Child Support Supplements, a large, nationally representative sample which identifies child support eligible mothers of all marital statuses and collects information on nonresident fathers’ financial and social investments in their children. Results for court-mediated outcomes such as the existence and amounts of child support orders showed that courts do not allocate …

Treatment Patterns And Economic Burden Of Sickle-Cell Disease Patients Prescribed Hydroxyurea: A Retrospective Claims-Based Study, Nirmish Shah, Menaka Bhor, Lin Xie, Rashid Halloway, Steve Arcona, Jincy Paulose, Huseyin Yuce

Publications and Research

Background: This study aimed to evaluate sickle-cell disease (SCD) treatment patterns and economic burden among patients prescribed hydroxyurea (HU) in the US, through claims data.

Methods: SCD patients with pharmacy claims for HU were selected from the Medicaid Analytic Extracts (MAX) from January 1, 2009 - December 31, 2013. The first HU prescription during the identification period was defined as the index date and patients were required to have had continuous medical and pharmacy benefits for ≥6 months baseline and 12 months follow-up periods. Patient demographics, clinical characteristics, treatment patterns, health care utilization, and costs were examined, and variables were …

Vinyl As Event: Record Store Day And The Value-Vibrant Matter Nexus, Eliot Bates

Publications and Research

Why would anyone purchase expensive, natural resource-intensive, and seemingly obsolete material carriers of music when streaming providers provide unlimited access to over 40 million songs for a small monthly fee? As I will show, we can no longer assume that contemporary interest is driven solely by a collector’s market or because of the audible qualities of the vinyl listening experience, and must attend to the many ways people engage with record objects today – and by extension, the vinyl record as an ontological multiple. Through an analysis of Record Store Day 2015 and affiliated phenomena including YouTube unboxing videos, other …

Education And Marriage Decisions Of Japanese Women And The Role Of The Equal Employment Opportunity Act, Linda N. Edwards, Takuya Hasebe, Tadashi Sakai

Publications and Research

The Japanese Equal Employment Opportunity Act (EEOA) of 1985 aimed to reduce gender discrimination in the labor market, especially for career-oriented jobs. This paper investigates whether this act had an unanticipated effect on women's marriage decisions. Using micro data from the Japanese Panel Survey of Consumers, we model women's interrelated decisions on university education and whether to marry, focusing on whether women have married by age 32. Our results show a negative relationship between university education and marriage that is much greater for post-EEOA cohorts of women than for pre-EEOA cohorts, consistent with our hypothesis that the enhanced career opportunities …

All For One Or Each For Her Own: Do Polygamous Families Share And Share Alike?, Kristin Mammen

Publications and Research

This paper examines whether the mother’s rank (whether she is a senior or junior wife) in polygamous households in Côte d’Ivoire injects favoritism that could lead to differential investment in children. The concern is that favoritism based on mother’s rank could cause an inefficient allocation of household resources. This question is analyzed employing Ordinary Least Squares on a Living Standards Measurement Survey microdataset collected by the World Bank. An interesting pattern is found: whether the senior or junior children are advantaged depends on the age difference between the senior and junior wife. Senior children are at an advantage when the …