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Risk And Recovery, John Austin, Chris Decker, Tom Doering, Ernie Goss, Bruce Johnson, Lisa Johnson, Ken Lemke, Franz Schwarz, Scott Strain, Eric Thompson, Keith Turner
Risk And Recovery, John Austin, Chris Decker, Tom Doering, Ernie Goss, Bruce Johnson, Lisa Johnson, Ken Lemke, Franz Schwarz, Scott Strain, Eric Thompson, Keith Turner
Economics Faculty Publications
The crisis in the housing and financial sectors has led to a dramatic slowdown in U.S. economic growth. Fourth quarter GDP growth and job growth are expected to be anemic and the economy may fall into recession in 2008. Indeed, several of the dozen members of the Nebraska Business Forecast Council do believe that the U.S. economy will likely slip into recession during 2008. However, the overall consensus of the Council is that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession. Economic growth will be slow in the first three quarters of 2008 before recovering in late 2008 and 2009.
A Soft Landing And A Long Layover, John Austin, Chris Decker, Tom Doering, Ernie Goss, Philip Baker, Bruce Johnson, Lisa Johnson, Ken Lemke, Franz Schwarz, Scott Strain, Eric Thompson
A Soft Landing And A Long Layover, John Austin, Chris Decker, Tom Doering, Ernie Goss, Philip Baker, Bruce Johnson, Lisa Johnson, Ken Lemke, Franz Schwarz, Scott Strain, Eric Thompson
Economics Faculty Publications
The U.S. economy achieved a soft landing in 2006. This was a desirable outcome. The economy needed a break from its rapid, and potentially inflationary, growth in 2004 and 2005, before taking off again. But, that new flight has been delayed. The aggregate economy has remained mired in slow growth in the first half of 2007. Pockets of the economy, such as the labor market, have been strong, but a weak housing sector has limited overall growth. Further, signs point to one or two more quarters of weaker growth, before the economy is able to take off again.
Outsourcing, Offshoring, And Productivity Measurement In U.S. Manufacturing, Susan N. Houseman
Outsourcing, Offshoring, And Productivity Measurement In U.S. Manufacturing, Susan N. Houseman
Upjohn Institute Working Papers
I discuss reasons why manufacturing productivity statistics should be interpreted with caution in light of the recent growth of domestic and foreign outsourcing and offshoring. First, outsourcing and offshoring are poorly measured in U.S. statistics, and poor measurement may impart a significant bias to manufacturing and, where offshoring is involved, aggregate productivity statistics. Second, companies often outsource or offshore work to take advantage of cheap (relative to their output) labor, and such cost savings are counted as productivity gains, even in multifactor productivity calculations. This fact has potentially important implications for the interpretation of productivity statistics. Whether, for instance, productivity …
The Origins Of U.S. Total Factor Productivity Growth In The Golden Age, Alexander J. Field
The Origins Of U.S. Total Factor Productivity Growth In The Golden Age, Alexander J. Field
Economics
A consideration of TFP growth in the United States during the golden age (1948–1973) raises two related questions: on the one hand why was it so strong and on the other hand, why were TFP growth rates lower than they were during the Depression years (1929–1941)? A continuing downward trend in TFP growth within manufacturing, and its declining share after World War II, provide answers to the latter question. A persisting productivity windfall associated with the build out of the surface road infrastructure helps answer the former question. By adopting a longer historical perspective, we can move beyond understanding the …
What Can Industry Trade Orientation Tell Us About Trade-Related Employment Dynamics?, Roger White
What Can Industry Trade Orientation Tell Us About Trade-Related Employment Dynamics?, Roger White
Economics
We explore whether imports and exports affect industry employment differently based on the industry’s trade orientation. Effects of trade are examined for both production and non-production employment using data for 384 6-digit manufacturing industries, classified by the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS), and 116 trading partners that span the years 1972 to 2001. Additionally, we consider potential employment effects stemming from shifts in import sources from high- to low-income nations. The findings confirm theory and provide a more detailed portrait of trade-related employment dynamics. As the United States further liberalizes trade, net job loss may be expected in more …
Import Competition And Job Displacement: Evidence From Us Manufacturing, 1981-1999, Roger White
Import Competition And Job Displacement: Evidence From Us Manufacturing, 1981-1999, Roger White
Economics
No abstract provided.
Outsourcing To Staffing Services: How Manufacturers' Use Of Staffing Agencies Affects Employment And Productivity Measurement, Matthew Dey, Susan N. Houseman, Anne E. Polivka
Outsourcing To Staffing Services: How Manufacturers' Use Of Staffing Agencies Affects Employment And Productivity Measurement, Matthew Dey, Susan N. Houseman, Anne E. Polivka
Employment Research Newsletter
No abstract provided.