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Fear Of China's Economic Power: Media And Party Affiliation On Public Opinion, Cloe Hughes

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

The United States and China are the world’s two greatest economic rivals. The US-China trade war–which started in 2018–is a result of this battle for economic hegemony and has raged on for the past six years. While trade decisions are ultimately up to policymakers, public opinion is a large factor in international policy decisions, and American biases against the Chinese may adversely affect both the American and Chinese economies. In this paper, I will examine how factors including media consumption and partisanship impact American attitudes towards China’s economy overtaking the United States’ economy. Previous research has studied the effects of …

Technology And The Global Economy, Jonathan Eaton, Samuel Kortum

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Interpreting individual heterogeneity in terms of probability theory has proved powerful in connecting behaviour at the individual and aggregate levels. Returning to Ricardo's focus on comparative efficiency as a basis for international trade, much recent quantitative equilibrium modeling of the global economy builds on particular probabilistic assumptions about technology. We review these assumptions and how they deliver a unified framework underlying a wide range of static and dynamic equilibrium models.

Regulatory Protection And The Role Of International Cooperation, Yuan Mei

Research Collection School Of Economics

I develop a general equilibrium framework to analyze the welfare consequences of product regulations and their international harmonization. In my model, raising product standards reduces a negative consumption externality, but also increases the marginal and fixed costs of production. When product standards are set noncooperatively, the effects of standards on other countries' wages and number of firms are not internalized, giving rise to an international inefficiency. The World Trade Organization's nondiscrimination principle of national treatment only partly addresses this inefficiency. Welfare losses from abandoning national treatment average 2.8%, whereas the maximum welfare gains from efficient cooperation average 11.8%.

The Role Of Filipino Conglomerates In The Nation's Development, Jesus Felipe

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

Could the country's small and medium companies be the engines of transformation that it needs to attain and sustain the 6.5-8 percent annual growth targeted in the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028? I doubt it. They have neither the knowledge nor the financial muscle to do it.

There is another group of companies that could lead the way. These are the large conglomerates of the nation. They have much better knowledge of the economy and financial power. Yet, in general, they do not innovate or export. Instead, they are into non-tradable activities (real estate, banking, distribution, insurance, construction, telecommunications and food). …

A Modern Guide To Tourism Economics, Chapter 1: Introduction, Robertico Croes, Yang Yang

Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

This Modern Guide captures the evolution of foundational tenets, theories, frameworks and models that buttressed tourism economics into an evolving discipline, shining light on both new and old approaches. It systematically examines current and future trends and issues related to new economic perspectives, consolidating the notion of tourism economics as a discipline.

The Demise Of The Beef Industry, Natalie Powers

Undergraduate Research Symposium

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is a neurological disorder commonly found in cows. The hypothesis for the causation of BSE surrounds a protein known as the prion protein. For the most part, prion proteins are not harmful to cattle. Yet, when it mutates, the protein begins attacking the central nervous system. The protein causes the infected cattle to lose coordination and become violent. This is where it gets its nickname, mad cow disease. The research in this project explores the economic impact of mad cow disease. The reactions from consumers surrounding BSE started the downfall of the economy. It also almost …

Sino-Us Trade War, Erin Torgersen

Senior Honors Projects

China and the United States are unquestionably the two wealthiest economies in the world. These two countries alone account for almost half of the world’s wealth. As these nations battle to become the world's most powerful economy, it is no surprise high tensions have developed to complicate their relationship. China’s economy has been rapidly growing, especially in the last two decades as China is making its way towards the top of the list of strongest economies through its abundance of exports and manufacturing. Alternatively, as the U.S.’s economy has slowly decreased in the last few years, the gap between the …

Terribly Timely Tariffs, Calvin Golliver

WWU Honors College Senior Projects

Mercantilism was an effective system for expanding state power and prosperity in early Modern Europe when three specific conditions existed: weak states, expensive trade, and zero-sum competition. These conditions combined to create a prisoner’s dilemma where all nations engaging in mercantilism was both individually rational and mutually destructive. The significant changes in these three conditions in the late 18th to early 19th century removed the prisoner’s dilemma, making it both individually and mutually rational to engage in a general policy of free trade.

On The Market Failure Of “Missing Pioneers”, Shang-Jin Wei, Ziru Wei, Jianhuan Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

An influential hypothesis states that export pioneers are too few relative to social optimum because the first exporter's action creates an informational public good for all subsequent exporters. The hypothesis has been invoked to justify certain types of government interventions. We note, however, that such market failure requires two inequalities to hold simultaneously: the discovery cost is neither too low nor too high. Neither has to hold in the data. We propose a structural estimation framework to evaluate the hypothesis, and estimate the parameters based on the customs data of Chinese electronics exports. Our key finding is that "missing pioneers" …

Import Restrictions By Eco-Certification: Quantity Effects On Tropical Timber Production, Matthew T. Cole, Jacqueline M. Doremus, Stephen F. Hamilton

Economics

Eco-certification standards are increasingly used by industrial countries to restrict imports of foreign goods produced using unsustainable practices. Import restrictions on eco-certified goods limit the trade of goods to the home country, but also serve to segment global demand into separate regions for conventional goods and certified goods, altering market structure and equilibrium prices in a manner that can work against sustainability goals. In this paper, we examine the effect of recent import restrictions in the US, EU, Canada, and Japan that require tropical timber products produced in Central Africa to be eco-certified. Using panel data of timber production in …

Potential Benefits Of Rcep On The Philippines: Accelerating Recovery Through Trade And Other Economic Opportunities, Caesar Cororaton, Marites Tiongco, Arlene B. Inocencio

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

The Philippines, as a member of ASEAN, is part of the RCEP, which is the world’s largest trading block in terms of population and GDP. RCEP was signed on November 15, 2020, by 15 member countries. This policy note discusses the potential effects of RCEP on the Philippines. Using a global CGE model calibrated to the most recent GTAP 10 database, the results indicate that the Philippines will benefit from higher exports, lower consumer prices, higher factor prices, and factor incomes of households. Among the Philippine sectors, the largest positive effects are observed in electronic equipment. Interestingly, the impact on …

Firm Productivity And The Variety Of Inputs And Outputs: Evidence From Chinese Trade Data, Ken Onishi, Jianhuan Xu, Guang Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies how the trade liberalization in China changes the firm productivity. We develop a framework to estimate revenue productivity (TFPR) and real productivity (TFPQ) with multi-product firms. We find that the aggregate TFPR increases 30\% from 2002-2007 and TFPQ increases 22\%, suggesting that the observed TFPR increase is mainly driven by real productivity change rather than the markup change. We further decompose the change of productivity into three channels: (1) access to foreign inputs; (2) technology upgrade; (3) resource re-allocation within the firm. We find the most significant channel is the last one, which explains half of the …

Between Lives And Economy: Optimal Covid-19 Containment Policy In Open Economies, Wen-Tai Hsu, Hsuan-Chih Luke Lin, Yang Han

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies optimal containment policy for combating a pandemic in an open-economy context. It does so via quantitative analyses using a model that incorporates a standard epidemiological compartmental model in a multi-country, multi-sector Ricardian model of international trade with full-fledged input-output linkages. We devise a novel approach in computing optimal national policies in the long run, and contrast these policies with a baseline in which countries maintain their current policies until vaccine availability. The welfare gains under optimal policies are asymmetric as the gains for the set of countries which should tighten up the containment measures are much larger …

Globalization And Top Income Shares, Lin Ma, Dimitrije Ruzic

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper documents empirically that access to global markets is associated with a higher executive-to-worker pay ratio within the firm. It then uses China's 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization as a trade shock to show that firms that exported to China prior to 2001 subsequently exported more, grew larger, and grew more unequal in terms of executive-to-worker pay. To evaluate analytically and quantitatively the impacts of globalization on top income inequality, this paper builds a model with heterogeneous firms, occupational choice, and executive compensation. In the model, executive compensation grows with the size of the firm, while the …

Do Not Take Peace For Granted: Adam Smith's Warning On The Relation Between Commerce And War, Maria Pia Paganelli, R. Schumacher

Economics Faculty Research

Is trade a promoter of peace? Adam Smith, one of the earliest defenders of trade, worries that commerce may instigate some perverse incentives, encouraging wars. The wealth that commerce generates decreases the relative cost of wars, increases the ability to finance wars through debts, which decreases their perceived cost, and increases the willingness of commercial interests to use wars to extend their markets, increasing the number and prolonging the length of wars. Smith, therefore, cannot assume that trade would yield a peaceful world. While defending and promoting trade, Smith warns us not to take peace for granted.

Did Dr-Cafta Affect The Exports Of The Dominican Republic To The United States?, Maria Ivanova Reyes Peguero, Asger V. Hansen

Economics Faculty Publications

This article evaluates the impact the Dominican Republic and Central America Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA) had on the exports of the Dominican Republic (DR) to the United States. We estimate a gravity model for the DR exports to the 109 trade partners of the country from 1990 to 2014. This model quantifies the effect of the DR-CAFTA since 2007, when the agreement was ratified, and finds that the DR-CAFTA negatively affected DR exports to the US. We conduct further analysis of factors that could explain the decline in exports, in spite of the ratification of the agreement. We find that …

Dissecting The Impact Of Import Competition On U.S. Earnings Inequality, Felipe Benguria

Institute for the Study of Free Enterprise Working Papers

This paper studies the impact of globalization on U.S. earnings inequality in the context of rapidly growing import competition from China. The increase in U.S. inequality during 2000-2007 has been driven entirely by changes within regions}. While the existing literature has established differences in wage growth across regions as a consequence of import competition, understanding the impact of globalization on rising U.S. inequality requires then focusing on its impact on inequality within regions. Exploiting variation in exposure to this unprecedented trade shock across local labor markets I find that import competition causes an increase in earnings inequality. This impact occurs …

Essays On Trade And Growth, Yulin Hou

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation is composed of three essays on international trade and economic growth. The first essay investigates whether the content of what economies export matters for human capital accumulation. I construct a small open economy model and find that expansion of primary exports can harm human capital accumulation if the economy is initially allocating significant resources to primary goods production. Then I test this prediction empirically using Latin American data over the period from 1965 to 2010 and find robust evidence in support of the hypothesis that a shift towards primary exports reduces human capital accumulation.

In the second essay, …

Understanding The Decline Of U.S. Manufacturing Employment, Susan N. Houseman

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

U.S. manufacturing experienced a precipitous and historically unprecedented decline in employment in the 2000s. Many economists and other analysts—pointing to decades of statistics showing that manufacturing real (inflation-adjusted) output growth has largely kept pace with private sector real output growth, that productivity growth has been much higher, and that the sector’s share of aggregate employment has been declining—argue that manufacturing’s job losses are largely the result of productivity growth (assumed to reflect automation) and are part of a long-term trend. Since the 1980s, however, the apparently robust growth in manufacturing real output and productivity have been driven by a relatively …

Economic Integration In North America: Changes In Us Trade Policy And The Effects On Texas Regional Exports To Mexico, Jorge Eduardo Mendoza

Mission Foods Texas-Mexico Center Research

Texas is the leading US state exporter to Mexico, trading oil products, automobile components and electronics. The USMCA will impose a restructuring of the North American supply chains to meet the new input content requirements. In order to evaluate the impact of the changes in tariffs arising from the new rules of origin requirements, an econometric model with different tariff scenarios was estimated. The estimations indicate that the distance to Texas and the size of the economies of the states of Mexico are factors that impact Texas exports to Mexico. Tariffs under the USMCA would have a minor but positive …

Charles Ballard Interview, Justin Carinci

External Papers and Reports

Professor Charles Ballard of Michigan State University delivered the lecture “The Fall and Rise of Income Equality in the United States” Sept. 27, 2017 as part of the Werner Sichel Lecture Series at Western Michigan University. Ballard detailed the “Great Convergence” of income equality in the United States that grew out of policies of the 1930s and 1940s and a “Great Divergence” of inequality starting about 1980. Ballard called this income gap, which is now greater than during the Gilded Age, “the largest economic phenomenon of our lifetimes.”

Changes In Canadian Shopping Visits To Northwest Washington, 2013-2016, Border Policy Research Institute

Border Policy Research Institute Publications

In 2013, the BPRI launched a long-term study to analyze the behavior of Canadians crossing the border to shop in Northwest Washington by counting the percentage of Canadian license plates in specified shopping locations along the Interstate 5 corridor. Our “license plate survey” includes data collected over the course of 6 weeks (3 days per week), for a total of 18 survey days in 2013 and 2016. This Border Policy Brief is a comparative analysis of the data collected in 2013, when the loonie averaged $0.97 USD, and data collected in 2016 in the same locations, when the loonie averaged …

Targeted Enforcement Against Illicit Trade In Tobacco Products, James Prieger, Jonathan D. Kulick, Mark A. R. Kleiman

School of Public Policy Working Papers

Illicit trade in tobacco is a substantial and growing problem in the U.S., causing loss of tax revenue, damage to public health, and threats to public safety. Decisions about enforcement against ITTP involve tradeoffs among competing objectives. Good policy design can improve the terms of those tradeoffs but cannot eliminate them. We examine questions about the allocation of enforcement resources against ITTP, and its distribution across activities, individuals, and organizations: in particular, whether and how to differentially target ITTP that involves violence or support for terrorism. We consider the problem of developing effective strategies for enforcement, applying both lessons from …

Energy Price Shocks And External Balances, Bao Tan Huynh

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the impact of a wide set of energy price shocks on exter- nal balances using a two-country framework comprising multiple sectors and en- dogenous energy production with convex costs. The paper disentangles different demand and supply shocks in the energy market through their distinct impact on external balances. It provides a theoretical confirmation of Kilian et al. (2009) and a theoretical foundation to the determining role of the non-energy trade balance in the transmission of energy price shocks. The presence of durables also highlights the immediate channel through which energy prices impact the non-energy trade balance.

Land-Based Freight Flows Between The Us And Its Nafta Neighbors, Border Policy Research Institute

Border Policy Research Institute Publications

This Brief provides an overview of the flow of goods between the U.S. and its two NAFTA neighbors, Canada and Mexico. For the U.S., the value and composition of freight that flows between its northern and southern borders varies significantly by port and region, and this variety inevitably has implications for border management policies and infrastructure investment needs. By providing an overview of the economic geography of the U.S.’s land-based trade with its NAFTA partners, this Brief seeks to inform decisions about border management and infrastructure investment, while also illustrating the value of cross-border trade to the U.S. economy.

Gold Mining And Economic And Social Change In West Africa, Michael Kevane

Economics

Economic theory often suggests that social institutions are strongly influenced by specific geographic features of regions. The history of gold mining in West Africa, however, suggests that the relationship between mineral resources and social organization is complex and fluid. First, over the centuries gold mining revenues may have encouraged state formation, but at the same time opportunities for conflict and corruption may have undermined state functioning. Second, while gold extraction and trade required social organization, the interpersonal relationships engendered by gold mining also led to new identities and social institutions. These dialectical considerations illustrate how simple theories of how geography …

Why Is Pollution From U.S. Manufacturing Declining? The Roles Of Trade, Regulation, Productivity, And Preferences, Joseph S. Shapiro, Reed Walker

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Between 1990 and 2008, air pollution emissions from U.S. manufacturing fell by 60 percent despite a substantial increase in manufacturing output. We show that these emissions reductions are primarily driven by within-product changes in emissions intensity rather than changes in output or in the composition of products produced. We then develop and estimate a quantitative model linking trade with the environment to better understand the economic forces driving these changes. Our estimates suggest that the implicit pollution tax that manufacturers face doubled between 1990 and 2008. These changes in environmental regulation, rather than changes in productivity and trade, account for …

Industry Career Guide: Wholesale And Retail Trade, Christopher James R. Cabuay, Paulynne Castillo

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

The Wholesale and Retail Trade (WRT) industry belongs to the services sector. In the Philippines, it is generally composed of three divisions, namely: Division 50, which consist of Sale, Maintenance and Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles, Retail Sale of Automotive Fuel, Division 51, on the other hand, which consist of Wholesale Trade and Commission Trade, Except of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles, and Division 52, consisting of Retail Trade, Except of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles, Repair of Personal and Household Goods.

Why Is Pollution From U.S. Manufacturing Declining? The Roles Of Trade, Regulation, Productivity, And Preferences, Joseph S. Shapiro, Reed Walker

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Between 1990 and 2008, emissions of the most common air pollutants from U.S. manufacturing fell by 60 percent, even as real U.S. manufacturing output grew substantially. This paper develops a quantitative model to explain how changes in trade, environmental regulation, productivity, and consumer preferences have contributed to these reductions in pollution emissions. We estimate the model’s key parameters using administrative data on plant-level production and pollution decisions. We then combine these estimates with detailed historical data to provide a model-driven decomposition of the causes of the observed pollution changes. Finally, we compare the model-driven decomposition to a statistical decomposition. The …

Why Is Pollution From U.S. Manufacturing Declining? The Roles Of Environmental Regulation, Productivity, And Trade, Joseph S. Shapiro, Reed Walker

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Between 1990 and 2008, air pollution emissions from U.S. manufacturing fell by 60 percent despite a substantial increase in manufacturing output. We show that these emissions reductions are primarily driven by within-product changes in emissions intensity rather than changes in output or in the composition of products produced. We then develop and estimate a quantitative model linking trade with the environment to better understand the economic forces driving these changes. Our estimates suggest that the implicit pollution tax that manufacturers face doubled between 1990 and 2008. These changes in environmental regulation, rather than changes in productivity and trade, account for …