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The “Price Puzzle” Under Changing Monetary Policy Regimes, Andre V. Mollick, Adolfo Sachsida

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper examines the “price puzzle”, the rise in the price level following a contractionary monetary policy shock, using monthly US data from 1960 to 2006. Deviating from the standard practice is including commodity prices to “solve the puzzle”, our benchmark VAR contains output, prices, the federal funds rate and M1 money stock, while the augmented VAR includes the 10-year long bond yield. Splitting the sample at October of 1979, we find very contrasting patterns and rationalize them under the changing relationship between money and the funds rate across periods. First, the price puzzle is confined to the pre-Volcker period. …

Antitrust And The 'Filed Rate' Doctrine: Deregulation And State Action, Herbert J. Hovenkamp

All Faculty Scholarship

In its Keogh decision the Supreme Court held that although the Interstate Commerce Act did not exempt railroads from antitrust liability, a private plaintiff may not recover treble damages based on an allegedly monopolistic tariff rate filed with a federal agency. Keogh very likely grew out of Justice Brandeis's own zeal for regulation and his concern for the protection of small business — in this case, mainly shippers whom he felt were protected from discrimination by filed rates. The Supreme Court's Square D decision later conceded that Keogh may have been “unwise as a matter of policy,” but reaffirmed it …

Economic Theory Gives Us Two 'Weapons' To Combat Gun Violence, Louis D. Johnston

Economics Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Returns To Schooling: A Quantile Regression, Arman Oganisian

Economics Student Scholarship

This paper contributes to the large body of economic literature that attempts to estimate the returns to schooling. It uses quantile regression to estimate the effect of an additional year of education on monthly wage for earners in different quantiles. Using data from the young men’s cohort of the National Longitudinal Survey, the paper attempts to control for ability, family background, geography, and race, and finds that the returns to schooling is approximately 3.49% for men. Furthermore, the paper finds that while the effect of education on earnings is not significantly different from quantile to quantile, the significance of education …

Antitrust And Nonexcluding Ties, Herbert J. Hovenkamp

All Faculty Scholarship

Notwithstanding hundreds of court decisions, tying arrangements remain enigmatic. Conclusions that go to either extreme, per se legality or per se illegality, invariably make simplifying assumptions that frequently do not obtain. For example, by ignoring double marginalization or tying product price cuts it becomes very easy to prove that a wide range of ties are anticompetitive. At the other extreme, by ignoring foreclosure possibilities one can readily conclude that ties are invariably benign.

Ties have historically been thought to produce two kinds of competitive harm: “leverage,” or extraction; and foreclosure, or exclusion. The two theories are not mutually exclusive. Indeed, …

Comparative Antitrust Federalism: Review Of Cengiz, Antitrust Federalism In The Eu And The Us, Herbert J. Hovenkamp

All Faculty Scholarship

This brief essay reviews Firat Cengiz’s book Antitrust Federalism in the EU and the US (2012), which compares the role of federalism in the competition law of the European Union and the United States. Both of these systems are “federal,” of course, because both have individual nation-states (Europe) or states (US) with their own individual competition provisions, but also an overarching competition law that applies to the entire group. This requires a certain amount of cooperation with respect to both territorial reach and substantive coverage.

Cengiz distinguishes among “markets,” “hierarchies,” and “networks” as forms of federalism. Markets are the least …

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report, Vol. 14, No. 4, King Banaian, Richard A. Macdonald

St. Cloud Area Quarterly Business Report

No abstract provided.

Export Strength And Opportunities For Kentucky Industries, Christopher R. Bollinger, Derrick Jenniges

CBER Research Report

Executive Summary:

This project's primary goal is to quantify export strengths and opportunities in Kentucky industries. We measure export strength as the relative dollar value of exports per worker in four digit industries using U.S. dollar value of exports per worker as the base. Tables were prepared for total exports and a selection of 50 countries representing 98.5% of Kentucky exports and 93.2% of U.S. exports. In addition to the export index, a measure of industry strength based upon labor and comparisons to regional competitor states is provided.

• Industries with a low index value, either overall or for specific countries, …

Pearl District Market Study, Thomas Potiowsky, Scott Stewart

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

Economic viability assessment of the Pearl District in Portland, including descriptions of demography, industry, and office space supply and demand.

Economic Analysis Of Working Waterfronts In The United States, Alan W. Hodges, Thomas J. Stevens, Mohammad Rahmani, Robert Swett

Maine Sea Grant Publications

Waterfront communities in the United States, whether rural or urban, recreational or industrialized, have been subject to economic, technological, ecological, and demographic changes that challenge their continued existence or development. The purpose of this study is to document the current status, contribution to regional economies, and future prospects of U.S. coastal communities in order help promote their long‐term economic prosperity. A review of the relevant literature on economic valuation of waterfront and ocean‐related economic activities found that previous studies usually evaluated only one particular economic sector or specific region. The present study attempts to provide a comprehensive evaluation of all …

Struggling Recovery And Economic Policy Uncertainty: Testimony Before The Joint Revenue Hearing, House And Senate Ways And Means Committees, Massachusetts State House, Boston, Ma, Christian Weller

Public Policy and Public Affairs Faculty Publication Series

The U.S. economy is in the fourth year of a recovery that started in June 2009. The fact that the economy is in recovery, even modestly, is something of a miracle given how stacked the deck is against it.

This is absolutely unique in American economic history: There has never been a recovery without the housing market expanding substantially as well; There has never been a recovery with state and local governments shrinking for three years in a row; There has never been a recovery with households owing, on average, well more than 100 percent of their after-tax income in …

Public Health Return On Investment: Making The Case, Glen P. Mays

Health Management and Policy Presentations

Fiscal pressures and policy imperatives have created a need for rigorous economic analyses of public health programs and policies. ROI analyses can reveal whether the benefits of public health strategies justify their costs, who realizes these benefits and costs, and under what circumstances.

Comparative Effectiveness Research And Patient Centered Outcomes Research In Public Health Settings: Design, Analysis, And Funding Considerations, Glen P. Mays

Health Management and Policy Presentations

The principles and methods of CER and PCOR have developed primarily with therapeutics in mind, but they must also be applied to the study of public health programs, policies, and delivery systems. This session surveys the emerging field, and provides examples of CER/PCOR methods applied in public health settings using practice-based research networks (PBRNs).

Modernization, Sexual Risk-Taking, And Gynecological Morbidity Among Bolivian Forager-Horticulturalists, Jonathan Stieglitz, Aaron D. Blackwell, Raúl Quispe Gutierrez, Edhitt Cortez Linares, Michael Gurven, Hillard Kaplan

ESI Publications

Sexual risk-taking and reproductive morbidity are common among rapidly modernizing populations with little material wealth, limited schooling, minimal access to modern contraception and healthcare, and gendered inequalities in resource access that limit female autonomy in cohabiting relationships. Few studies have examined how modernization influences sexual risk-taking and reproductive health early in demographic transition. Tsimane are a natural fertility population of Bolivian forager-farmers; they are not urbanized, reside in small-scale villages, and lack public health infrastructure. We test whether modernization is associated with greater sexual risk-taking, report prevalence of gynecological morbidity (GM), and test whether modernization, sexual risk-taking and parity are …

Does Green Consumerism Increase The Acceptance Of Wind Power?, Caroline L. Noblet, John Thøgersen

Publications

In this paper, we discuss what might be termed an action-based learning approach to promoting important pro-environmental actions, such as support for or acceptance of environmental policy. Such an approach involves promoting simple and easy behaviours as entry points for more radical steps towards sustainability, referred to as “catalytic” or “wedge” behaviours. Despite the obvious need for innovative approaches to promote important pro-environmental behaviour, and sound theoretical backing for such concepts, there is a lack of research testing the key propositions of this approach. In a survey study based on a random sample of residents of the state of Maine, …

Metropolitan Report - December 2012, Division Of Business And Economic Research, College Of Business Administration, University Of New Orleans

UNO Metropolitan Report

No abstract provided.

Cost Innovation: Schumpeter And Equilibrium. Part 2: Innovation And The Money Supply, Martin Shubik, William D. Sudderth

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The control structure over money and real assets is considered in the process of cost innovation. The work here contrasts with the first part of this paper where the emphasis was on the physical aspects of innovation. Here the emphasis is primarily on the money supply aspects of innovation. We conclude with observations on evaluation and the locus of control in the process of innovation.

An Estimation Of Economic Models With Recursive Preferences, Xiaohong Chen, Jack Favilukis, Sydney C. Ludvigson

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper presents estimates of key preference parameters of the Epstein and Zin (1989, 1991) and Weil (1989) (EZW) recursive utility model, evaluates the model’s ability to fit asset return data relative to other asset pricing models, and investigates the implications of such estimates for the unobservable aggregate wealth return. Our empirical results indicate that the estimated relative risk aversion parameter ranges from 17-60, with higher values for aggregate consumption than for stockholder consumption, while the estimated elasticity of intertemporal substitution is above one. In addition, the estimated model-implied aggregate wealth return is found to be weakly correlated with the …

The Utah Model: Lessons For Regional Planning, Brenda C. Scheer

Brookings Mountain West Publications

Utah has become an unlikely leader in regional planning through a voluntary partnership of key leaders, agencies, local government, and the general public. Given that regional planning efforts around the nation have generally evoked strong reactions from residents concerned about losing local control, the success of Envision Utah—the organization that emerged as a key driver of regional planning in Utah—in building a consensus around regional growth management holds lessons for other regions.

Envision Utah adopted several strategies that have distinguished Utah’s regional planning efforts from other regions and given rise to what can be called the “Utah model” of collaborative …

Mountain Monitor-3rd Quarter 2012, Mark Muro, Kenan Fikri

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

The major metropolitan areas of the Intermountain West finally put the housing bust behind them in the third quarter of 2012 and in most places made solid progress. House prices rose in all 10 major metropolitan markets in the months from June to September for the first time since the recession began. Likewise, output growth accelerated and the unemployment rate continued to fall. Unfortunately none of this prevented the region’s already feeble jobs recovery from slowing.

Mathematical Institutional Economics, Martin Shubik

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

An overview is given of the utilization of strategic market games in the development of a game theory based theory of money and financial institutions.

Wealth Effects Revisited 1975-2012, Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley, Robert J. Shiller

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We re-examine the links between changes in housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumer spending. We extend a panel of U.S. states observed quarterly during the seventeen-year period, 1982 through 1999, to the thirty-seven year period, 1975 through 2012Q2. Using techniques reported previously, we impute the aggregate value of owner-occupied housing, the value of financial assets, and measures of aggregate consumption for each of the geographic units over time. We estimate regression models in levels, first differences and in error-correction form, relating per capita consumption to per capita income and wealth. We find a statistically significant and rather large effect of …

Vocational Rehabilitation (Vr) Approaches To Job Development, Catherine Ipsen, University Of Montana Rural Institute

Employment

Vocational Rehabilitation (VR) agencies provide a range of services to help people with disabilities become employed. How services are delivered, however, depends on several factors including client interests and abilities as well as economic opportunities within the local community. For better or worse, rural and urban clients face vastly different employment landscapes. For instance, USDA Economic Resource Service data indicate that rural people earn lower wages and experience lower employment rates (ERS, 2012). Rural counties also have fewer full-time jobs per capita, particularly in skilled labor sectors (ERS, 2012; Parker, 2003). Urban areas have higher employment rates in professional and …

Information And Employee Evaluation: Evidence From A Randomized Intervention In Public Schools, Jonah E. Rockoff, Douglas O. Staiger, Thomas J. Kane, Eric S. Taylor

Dartmouth Scholarship

We examine how employers learn about worker productivity in a randomized pilot experiment which provided objective estimates of teacher performance to school principals. We test several hypotheses that support a simple Bayesian learning model with imperfect information. First, the correlation between performance estimates and prior beliefs rises with more precise objective estimates and more precise subjective priors. Second, new information exerts greater influence on posterior beliefs when it is more precise and when priors are less precise. Employer learning affects job separation and productivity in schools, increasing turnover for teachers with low performance estimates and producing small test score improvements. …

Is There More To Food Insecurity Among Children Than Poverty? The Importance Of Measurement, Neeraj Kaushal, Jane Waldfogel, Irwin Garfinkel, Vanessa Wight

University of Kentucky Center for Poverty Research Discussion Paper Series

This paper examines the association between poverty and food insecurity among children using the official measure of poverty and the newsupplemental poverty measure of the Census Bureau based on a more inclusive definition of family resources and needs. Our objective is to study whether the association between food insecurity and poverty improves with a more comprehensive measure of income and needs. We find a strong and statistically significant association between income-to-needs ratio based on the official poverty metric and food insecurity among children—particularly very low food security among children. A more inclusive measure of income-to-needs-ratio, based on the supplemental poverty …

Does Economic Decline Contribute To A Decline In Children’S Food Security?, Kimberly Groover, Bradford Mills, George Davis

University of Kentucky Center for Poverty Research Discussion Paper Series

Most Americans believe that children should not experience persistent worry about the quality or quantity of food consumed due to low household resources. Since 1995, the USDA has tracked children’s food security based upon household responses to the annual Current Population Survey Food Security Supplement (CPS-FSS). During this time, a small, but recently growing, share of U.S. households report multiple indicators of reduced food intake and disrupted eating patterns among children due to inadequate resources to obtain food (Coleman- Jenson et al, 2012). The USDA classifies children as food secure, low food secure, or very low food secure based upon …

The National Elder Economic Security Standard Index, Gerontology Institute, University Of Massachusetts Boston

Gerontology Institute Publications

The Elder Economic Security Standard Index (Elder Index) is a new tool for use by policy makers, older adults, family caregivers, service providers, aging advocates, and the public at large. Developed by the Gerontology Institute at the University of Massachusetts Boston and Wider Opportunities for Women (WOW), the Elder Index is a measure of income that older adults require to maintain their independence in the community and meet their daily costs of living, including affordable and appropriate housing and health care. The development and use of the Elder Index promotes a measure of income that respects the autonomy goals of …

The Striking Success Of The National Labor Relations Act, Michael L. Wachter

All Faculty Scholarship

Although often viewed as a dismal failure, the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA) has been remarkably successful. While the decline in private sector unionization since the 1950s is typically viewed as a symbol of this failure, the NLRA has achieved its most important goal: industrial peace.

Before the NLRA and the 1947 Taft-Hartley Amendments, our industrial relations system gave rise to frequent and violent strikes that threatened the nation’s stability. For example, in the late 1870s, the Great Railroad Strike spread throughout a number of major cities. In Pittsburg alone, strikes claimed 24 lives, nearly 80 buildings, and over 2,000 …

Review Of "The Green Paradox: A Supply-Side Approach To Global Warming" By H.-W. Sinn, Tao Wang

Economics Faculty Works

No abstract provided.

The Role Of Expectations: An Application To Internal Migration, Robert Baumann, Justin Svec, Francis Sanzari

Economics Department Working Papers

This paper examines the impact of unemployment on migration. In a theoretical model, we show that unemployment, per se, does not affect migration. Rather, migration only occurs when unemployment shocks force residents to update their expectations of the area's unemployment rate. Once these expectations change, migration reallocates labor to bring the economy back to equilibrium. To test this theory, we devise an empirical strategy using state level data in the U.S. from 2000 to 2010, we find strong empirical evidence that unemployment shocks outside of expectations have a far greater impact on migration than unemployment shocks that are within expectations.