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Credit Cards, Credit Utilization, And Consumption, Scott Fulford, Scott Schuh Dec 2020

Credit Cards, Credit Utilization, And Consumption, Scott Fulford, Scott Schuh

Economics Faculty Working Papers Series

Credit bureau data show remarkably stable consumer utilization of unsecured debt over the business cycle, life cycle, and individually quarter-to-quarter, despite massive variation in available credit. To explain these new findings, we propose a life-cycle consumption model with heterogeneous preferences, endogenous payment choice, and the option to revolve debt for consumption smoothing. Using diary data to identify payment use, the estimated model matches consumption and credit use at every frequency and suggests that around half the population has an endogenously high marginal propensity to consume. The results suggest understanding credit availability and heterogeneous use may lead to richer counter-cyclical policies.


Revolving Versus Convenience Use Of Credit Cards: Evidence From U.S. Credit Bureau Data, Scott Fulford, Scott Schuh Dec 2020

Revolving Versus Convenience Use Of Credit Cards: Evidence From U.S. Credit Bureau Data, Scott Fulford, Scott Schuh

Economics Faculty Working Papers Series

Credit card payments and revolving debt are important for consumer theory but a key data source — credit bureau records — does not distinguish between current charges and revolving debt from the previous month. We develop a theory-based econometric methodology informed by survey evidence to estimate the likelihood a consumer is revolving each quarter. We validate our approach using a new survey linked to credit bureau data. For likely revolvers: (1) 100 percent of an increase in credit becomes an increase in debt eventually; (2) credit limit changes are half as salient as debt changes; and (3) revolving status is …


The Eastern Panhandle Economic Outlook: 2021-2025, Brian Lego, John Deskins Nov 2020

The Eastern Panhandle Economic Outlook: 2021-2025, Brian Lego, John Deskins

Bureau of Business & Economic Research

West Virginia’s Eastern Panhandle (EPH) has ranked as the state’s strongest economic region for a decade, with employment and other major indicators pointing to underlying strength in the EPH economy compared to West Virginia. The COVID-19 pandemic has hurt the EPH’s economy and will weigh on growth over the next few months, but the area should snap back by late-2021. In this report, we present a detailed discussion of the current state of the EPH economy along with our forecast for the likely path of economic activity over the next five years.


Identifying Industrial Clusters For Targeted Economic Development In West Virginia, Eric Bowen, John Deskins Nov 2020

Identifying Industrial Clusters For Targeted Economic Development In West Virginia, Eric Bowen, John Deskins

Bureau of Business & Economic Research

In this report, we identify the industry clusters that are present in West Virginia’s metropolitan regions and provide tools to assess the most promising clusters for economic development targeting. This type of cluster analysis has become an important way for regions to understand their local economic structure and more effectively develop strategies to promote economic growth.


North Central West Virginia Economic Outlook 2021-2025, Brian Lego, John Deskins Oct 2020

North Central West Virginia Economic Outlook 2021-2025, Brian Lego, John Deskins

Bureau of Business & Economic Research

North Central West Virginia has been one of the state’s strongest and steadiest economic regions for the past decade or so. The four-county area did lose some jobs during 2019, but those losses were tied to court-ordered delays of pipeline construction projects and layoffs at a large manufacturer rather than a deterioration in the area’s underlying economic fundamentals. Despite the region’s solid economic foundation, the COVID-19 pandemic did strike a major blow to the region’s economy in early-2020 and continues to affect the area to this day. In this report, we present a detailed discussion of North Central West Virginia’s …


Commodities Are Not Industries! A Value Chain Example, Randall W. Jackson, Patricio Aroca Oct 2020

Commodities Are Not Industries! A Value Chain Example, Randall W. Jackson, Patricio Aroca

Regional Research Institute Working Papers

Leontief and Stone both received Nobel Prizes in Economics for development and extension of input-output (IO) analysis, a framework that has gained little traction in mainstream U.S. economics. Although IO modeling has gained renewed focus in several problem domains, many contemporary economists eschew Stone's enhancements, resulting in inconsistent analytics, even in top economics journals. In this paper, we use an increasingly common approach to value chain analysis as one example that demonstrates such conceptual misunderstandings and by presenting properly formulated alternatives, we demonstrate the extent of the consequences of neglecting the Stone enhancements and important role of reproducing results.


Extending The Macroeconomic Impacts Forecasting Capabilities Of The National Energy Modeling System, Christa D. Court, Randall W. Jackson, Justin Adder, Gavin Pickenpaugh, Charles Zelek, Amanda J. Harker Steele Oct 2020

Extending The Macroeconomic Impacts Forecasting Capabilities Of The National Energy Modeling System, Christa D. Court, Randall W. Jackson, Justin Adder, Gavin Pickenpaugh, Charles Zelek, Amanda J. Harker Steele

Regional Research Institute Working Papers

To comprehensively model the macroeconomic impacts that result from changes in long-term energy-economy forecasts, the United States Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) partnered with West Virginia University’s (WVU) Regional Research Institute to develop the NETL/WVU econometric input-output (ECIO) model. The NETL/WVU ECIO model is an impacts forecasting model that functions as an extension of the U.S. energy-economic models available from the United States (U.S.) Energy Information Administration’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Market Allocation (MARKAL) model. The ECIO model integrates a macroeconomic econometric forecasting model and an input-output accounting framework along …


Wheeling Area Economic Outlook: 2021-2025, Brian Lego, John Deskins Oct 2020

Wheeling Area Economic Outlook: 2021-2025, Brian Lego, John Deskins

Bureau of Business & Economic Research

The Wheeling Area economy has seen large swings in economic activity over the past several years. Surging energy production and massive increases in pipeline construction activity fueled strong economic growth during 2017 and 2018. By contrast, the completion of pipeline projects and two large hospital closures weighed on area payrolls in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic dealt the regional economy a major blow in early-2020. In this report, we present a detailed discussion of the Wheeling Area economy along with our forecast for regional economic conditions for the next five years.


Consistent Regional Commodity-By-Industry Input-Output Accounts, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi Sep 2020

Consistent Regional Commodity-By-Industry Input-Output Accounts, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi

Regional Research Institute Working Papers

A long-standing regional science problem domain focuses on the identification of structural economic change. One of several approaches relies on the use of historical final demand series and a comparison of observed industry output to an estimate of what output would have been were economic structure static. However, these methods were first developed before the introduction of today’s commonly used commodity-by-industry (CxI)input-output (IO) accounting frameworks, and before the application of these methods to regional economies. Correctly formulating the supporting accounting structures for these analyses is essential, but can be challenging even for experienced an- alysts. Related textbook and journal articles …


Enhancing Our Understanding Of A Regional Economy: The Complementarity Of Cge And Eio Models, Andrew Crawley, Geoffrey J.D. Hewings Sep 2020

Enhancing Our Understanding Of A Regional Economy: The Complementarity Of Cge And Eio Models, Andrew Crawley, Geoffrey J.D. Hewings

Regional Research Institute Working Papers

Economic impact models are powerful tools for the assessment of policy changes in regional economies. Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models have grown in popularity, becoming the dominant choice of practitioners and academics in this field. This popularity has been at the expense of an older class of model, the Econometric Input Output (EIO). The present paper demonstrates how both models, using the same input data, may yield different outcomes. However, the paper suggests that EIO has been underutilized even though it provides a strong complementary tool accompany that enhance analyses using a CGE approach. This paper urges regional economists to …


Interstate Protectionism: The Case Of Solar Renewable Energy Credits, Jed J. Cohen, Levan Elbakidze, Randall Jackson Aug 2020

Interstate Protectionism: The Case Of Solar Renewable Energy Credits, Jed J. Cohen, Levan Elbakidze, Randall Jackson

The Nature Conservancy

Solar Renewable Energy Credits (SRECs) are financial instruments created by state policies to offer incentives for generating solar energy. In an effort to support in-state solar energy sectors and boost local employment opportunities, some states have closed off their SREC markets to out-of-state solar facilities. We examine the merits of such protectionist policy from the protectionist states perspective. We find that SREC market closure leads to higher in-state SREC prices, greater solar installation, and lower electricity prices. The study illustrates the economic incentives for protecting in-state SREC markets from out-of-state solar energy producers.


Shift-Share Analysis: Alabama, 2005 - 2018, Randall Jackson, Peter Jarosi Jun 2020

Shift-Share Analysis: Alabama, 2005 - 2018, Randall Jackson, Peter Jarosi

Shift Share Analyses

In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five parts of An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of further impact. …


Shift-Share Analysis: Ohio, 2005 - 2018, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi Jun 2020

Shift-Share Analysis: Ohio, 2005 - 2018, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi

Shift Share Analyses

In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five parts of An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of further impact. …


Shift-Share Analysis: New York, 2005 - 2018, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi Jun 2020

Shift-Share Analysis: New York, 2005 - 2018, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi

Shift Share Analyses

In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five parts of An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of further impact. …


Shift-Share Analysis: North Carolina, 2005 - 2018, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi Jun 2020

Shift-Share Analysis: North Carolina, 2005 - 2018, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi

Shift Share Analyses

In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five parts of An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of further impact. …


Shift-Share Analysis: South Carolina, 2005 - 2018, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi Jun 2020

Shift-Share Analysis: South Carolina, 2005 - 2018, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi

Shift Share Analyses

In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five parts of An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of further impact. …


Shift-Share Analysis: Maryland, 2005 - 2018, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi Jun 2020

Shift-Share Analysis: Maryland, 2005 - 2018, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi

Shift Share Analyses

In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five p arts o f An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of …


Shift-Share Analysis: Mississippi, 2005 - 2018, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi Jun 2020

Shift-Share Analysis: Mississippi, 2005 - 2018, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi

Shift Share Analyses

In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five parts of An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of further impact. …


Shift-Share Analysis: Georgia, 2005 - 2018, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi Jun 2020

Shift-Share Analysis: Georgia, 2005 - 2018, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi

Shift Share Analyses

In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five parts of An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of further impact. …


Shift-Share Analysis: Pennsylvania, 2005 - 2018, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi Jun 2020

Shift-Share Analysis: Pennsylvania, 2005 - 2018, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi

Shift Share Analyses

In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five parts of An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of further impact. …


Shift-Share Analysis: Kentucky, 2005 - 2018, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi Jun 2020

Shift-Share Analysis: Kentucky, 2005 - 2018, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi

Shift Share Analyses

In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five p arts o f An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of …


Shift-Share Analysis: Tennessee, 2005 - 2018, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi Jun 2020

Shift-Share Analysis: Tennessee, 2005 - 2018, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi

Shift Share Analyses

In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five parts o f An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of further …


Shift-Share Analysis: Virginia, 2005 - 2018, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi Jun 2020

Shift-Share Analysis: Virginia, 2005 - 2018, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi

Shift Share Analyses

In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five parts of n Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of further impact. …


Shift-Share Analysis: West Virginia, 2005 - 2018, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi Jun 2020

Shift-Share Analysis: West Virginia, 2005 - 2018, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi

Shift Share Analyses

In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five parts of An Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk of further impact. …


Professional Sporting Events Increase Seasonal Influenza Mortality In Us Cities, Alexander Cardazzi, Brad Humphreys, Jane E. Ruseski, Brian P. Soebbing, Nicholas Watanabe Jun 2020

Professional Sporting Events Increase Seasonal Influenza Mortality In Us Cities, Alexander Cardazzi, Brad Humphreys, Jane E. Ruseski, Brian P. Soebbing, Nicholas Watanabe

Economics Faculty Working Papers Series

The COVID-19 pandemic shut down sporting events worldwide. Local policy makers and league officials face important decisions about restarting play, especially in professional leagues that draw large numbers of spectators to games. We analyze the impact of professional sporting events on local seasonal influenza mortality to develop evidence that will help inform sports league reopening policy decisions. Results from a difference-in-differences model applied to data from a sample of US cities that gained new professional sports teams over the period 1962-2016 show that the presence of games in these cities increased local influenza mortality by between 4% and 24%, depending …


Disamenity Or A Signal Of Competence? The Empirical Political Economy Of Local Road Maintenance, Benjamin Blemings, Margaret Bock May 2020

Disamenity Or A Signal Of Competence? The Empirical Political Economy Of Local Road Maintenance, Benjamin Blemings, Margaret Bock

Economics Faculty Working Papers Series

Empirical results find different conclusions than theoretical evidence of how electorates perceive road work. This paper uses a geographically smaller unit of analysis than prior work, political alignment, local election cycles, and difference-in-differences. It finds political distortions in invasive road maintenance timing and rules out maintenance seasonality. Spatial discontinuity plots leveraging ward boundary cutoffs confirm the shift. Results identify new public distortions to road maintenance, local election cycles, which are widespread and frequent. The estimates are used to calculate financial costs of local elections on road maintenance. Local elections have cost medium-large U.S. cities over $185.5 million from 1960- 2020.


The Impact Of Coal Activity On Local Revenues For Elementary And Secondary Education In Appalachia, Jilleah G. Welch, Matthew N. Murray May 2020

The Impact Of Coal Activity On Local Revenues For Elementary And Secondary Education In Appalachia, Jilleah G. Welch, Matthew N. Murray

Coal Industry Effects on Education

This report is the second of two reports exploring the relationship between coal activity and funding for elementary and secondary education. The first report provided a descriptive analysis while this report examines the impact of changes in coal employment or production on local revenues for education using an econometric analysis. Coal employment in the U.S. has significantly decreased over the last century due to multiple factors. However, there is still great variation in trends in coal employment across regions, counties, and time. Some areas have experienced growth in coal employment while other areas have experienced significant declines in coal employment. …


Shift-Share Analysis: Appalachian Region Micropolitan And Metropolitan Areas, 2005 – 2018 Part Ii. Regions 61 - 120, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi Apr 2020

Shift-Share Analysis: Appalachian Region Micropolitan And Metropolitan Areas, 2005 – 2018 Part Ii. Regions 61 - 120, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi

Shift Share Analyses

In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five p arts o f A n Economic Analysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those that are at greatest risk …


Shift-Share Analysis: Appalachian Region Micropolitan And Metropolitan Areas, 2005 – 2018 Part I. Regions 1 - 60, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi Apr 2020

Shift-Share Analysis: Appalachian Region Micropolitan And Metropolitan Areas, 2005 – 2018 Part I. Regions 1 - 60, Randall Jackson, Péter Járosi

Shift Share Analyses

In County-level CIE Supply Chain Analysis, the second of five p a rts o f A n E c onomic A n alysis of the Appalachian Coal Industry Ecosystem posted to the Commission’s website in January of 2018, we developed a set of metrics that were used to provide insights on the past and future supply chain implications of long-term coal industry decline in Appalachia.[1] These metrics were used to identify counties that have been heavily impacted by the decline of the coal industry, those that remain dependent on the coal industry ecosystem (CIE), and among the dependent counties, those …


Solar Bait: How States Attract Solar Investments From Large Corporations, Jed J. Cohen, Levan Elbakidze, Randall Jackson Mar 2020

Solar Bait: How States Attract Solar Investments From Large Corporations, Jed J. Cohen, Levan Elbakidze, Randall Jackson

The Nature Conservancy

Past literature in solar adoption has focused primarily on households without significant attention to the potential of commercial properties as sites for solar generation. Herein we examine firms’ decisions to install solar panels on their properties using state-level data. We are interested in the effects of state-level characteristics, including policies and regulations, on firm decisions regarding solar investments. We find that state characteristics that influence the return-on-investment from solar installations, most notably solar intensity, are important for commercial adoption decisions. Further results suggest that certain state-level policies, in particular solar carve-outs in renewable portfolio standards, financing programs and tax breaks, …