Digital Commons Network^™

Covid-19 And The Us Safety Net, Robert A. Moffitt, James P. Ziliak

Economics Faculty Publications

We examine trends in employment, earnings and incomes over the last two decades in the United States, and how the safety net has responded to changing fortunes, including the shutdown of the economy in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The US safety net is a patchwork of different programmes providing in-kind as well as cash benefits, and it had many holes prior to the pandemic. In addition, few of the programmes are designed explicitly as automatic stabilisers. We show that the safety net response to employment losses in the COVID-19 pandemic largely consists only of increased support from unemployment insurance …

Some Regional Economic Perspectives On Covid-19 Impacts, Paul A. Coomes

Institute for the Study of Free Enterprise Working Papers

It has been about eight months since the Covid-19 pandemic began sweeping across America, causing the well-known health care emergency, and major economic and fiscal distortions. Presumably, we are in the last stages of the damage, as activity has picked up in most realms of daily life. However, recovery problems linger in many areas, including air travel, cruises, hotels, conventions, concerts, and schools. While not over, enough information has emerged to start documenting the regional economic impacts around Kentucky. This note examines the latest public data to study the apparent economic and fiscal damage related to Covid responses, public and …

Did Covid-19 Change Life Insurance Offerings?, Timothy F. Harris, Aaron Yelowitz, Charles J. Courtemanche

Institute for the Study of Free Enterprise Working Papers

The profitability of life insurance offerings is contingent on accurate projections and pricing of mortality risk. The COVID-19 pandemic created significant uncertainty, with dire mortality predictions from early forecasts resulting in widespread government intervention and greater individual precaution that reduced the projected death toll. We analyze how life insurance companies changed pricing and offerings in response to COVID-19 using monthly data on term life insurance policies from Compulife. We estimate event-study models that exploit well-established variation in the COVID-19 mortality rate based on age and underlying health status. Despite the increase in mortality risk and significant uncertainty, we find limited …

Has Anheuser-Busch Let The Steam Out Of Craft Beer? The Economics Of Acquiring Craft Brewers, Kenneth G. Elzinga, Alexander J. Mcglothlin

Institute for the Study of Free Enterprise Working Papers

The craft beer segment in the U.S. has grown from a meager 20 brewers in the 1980s to over 7,000 today and is approaching a 15% market share. Macrobrewers initially responded by internal product differentiation but then began acquiring craft brewers, provoking concerns about the continuing viability of independent, local brewers. We analyze the economic consequences of the most prominent of these acquisitions: the Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI) purchase of Goose Island in 2011. Using variation in pre-acquisition ABI market share to account for the effects of the distribution tier in the beer industry and the influence of macrobrewers on the …

Federal Student Loan Servicing Accountability And Incentives In Contracts, Rajeev Darolia, Andrew Sullivan

Institute for the Study of Free Enterprise Working Papers

Student loan servicers play a critical and underappreciated role in federal student loan programs. The federal government contracts out to servicers an array of many of the most critical functions related to student loan repayment, including account management, payment processing, and the provision of information about payment plans and solutions for distressed borrowers. In fact, most borrowers’ interactions with federal student loan repayment are almost exclusively with their servicer. We aim to improve upon the scarce research literature about federal student loan servicers by exploring the complicated set of measures that determine how servicers are compensated for servicing each debtor …

Measuring The Spread Of Covid-19 In Kentucky: Do We Have The Right Data?, Kenneth R. Troske, Paul A. Coomes

Institute for the Study of Free Enterprise Working Papers

We examine various measures of COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations and deaths, with an emphasis on data for Kentucky. We find that: Data on the number of new reported cases of the disease obtained from convenience samples (as opposed to representative random samples) is an inaccurate measure of the spread of the disease in the State. Using CDC data and national studies, it appears that there were ten times the number of infections in March than reported for Kentucky at the time and by September the State is still capturing only one out of two people infected.

A better measure of new …

Kentucky Public Schools As Educational Bright Spots (September 2020), Michael T. Childress

CBER Research Report

Understanding the reasons for better‐than‐expected performance across Kentucky's 173 school districts, taking into account student outcomes, backgrounds, and school district characteristics. Building on the previous work with school districts and using school-level data, this paper discusses the estimated expected level of school-level performance using district-level fixed effects. From this broad range of student outcomes, family and community backgrounds, and school characteristics, we identify schools that have performed better than expected—which we refer to as “bright spots.”

Some Basics Of Capitalism And Socialism And Implications For Human Liberty, Morality, And Fairness, John Garen

Institute for the Study of Free Enterprise Working Papers

This essay outlines the big-picture aspects of capitalism and socialism, and uses this overview to discuss human liberty and economic liberty in each system. Additionally, I note that some have argued that capitalism is unfair or immoral and so I consider three specific and common moral standards in this regard. They are: (i) “From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs;” (ii) “People should get what they earn;” and (iii) “’Agreement without conformity’ or ‘conformity without agreement.’” Capitalism is centered on individual rights and private ownership, while socialism awards decision-making powers to government. The former is …

Towards An Economic Geography Of Fintech, Karen P. Y. Lai, Michael Samers

Geography Faculty Publications

In this paper, we identify the ways in which the existing literature has examined financial technology (FinTech). Using the frame of the ‘FinTech Cube’, we examine how FinTech unfolds through the intersections of key actors, technologies and institutions. We demonstrate the relevance of FinTech for two areas of geographical enquiry: i) the reshaping of global production and financial networks, and ii) financial inclusion and poverty reduction in poorer countries. In doing so, we accord particular attention to the significance of FinTech for theoretical and empirical research in economic geography.

The Full Impact Of The Affordable Care Act On Political Participation, Charles J. Courtemanche, James Marton, Aaron Yelowitz

Economics Faculty Publications

This article examines the impact of both the Medicaid expansion and the private insurance-related components of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on voter turnout and registration. We employ a difference-in-difference-in-differences identification strategy exploiting variation over time, state Medicaid expansion status, and within-state local area pre-ACA uninsured rates. Using data between 2006 and 2016 from the November Current Population Survey and the Census Bureau's Small Area Health Insurance Estimates, our results suggest little effect of the ACA on voter turnout or registration.

Racial And Ethnic Disparities In Covid-19: Evidence From Six Large Cities, Joseph Benitez, Charles J. Courtemanche, Aaron Yelowitz

Institute for the Study of Free Enterprise Working Papers

As of June 2020, the coronavirus pandemic has led to more than 2.3 million confirmed infections and 121 thousand fatalities in the United States, with starkly different incidence by race and ethnicity. Our study examines racial and ethnic disparities in confirmed COVID-19 cases across six diverse cities – Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago, New York City, San Diego, and St. Louis – at the ZIP code level (covering 436 “neighborhoods” with a population of 17.7 million). Our analysis links these outcomes to six separate data sources to control for demographics; housing; socioeconomic status; occupation; transportation modes; health care access; long-run opportunity, as …

Did Social-Distancing Measures In Kentucky Help To Flatten The Covid-19 Curve?, Charles J. Courtemanche, Joseph Garuccio, Anh Le, Joshua C. Pinkston, Aaron Yelowitz

Institute for the Study of Free Enterprise Working Papers

In the absence of a vaccine or more effective treatment options, containing the spread of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) must rely on non-pharmaceutical interventions. All U.S. states adopted social-distancing measures in March and April of 2020, though they varied in both timing and scope. Kentucky began by closing public schools and restaurant dining rooms on March 16th before progressing to closing other non-essential businesses and eventually issuing a “Healthy at Home” order with restrictions similar to the shelter-in-place (SIPO) orders adopted by other states. We aim to quantify the impact of these measures on COVID-19 case growth in the …

Chain Restaurant Calorie Posting Laws, Obesity, And Consumer Welfare, Charles J. Courtemanche, David Frisvold, David Jimenez-Gomez, Mariétou H. Ouayogodé, Michael Price

Institute for the Study of Free Enterprise Working Papers

The 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) introduced a mandate requiring chain restaurants to post calorie counts on menus and menu boards. This paper investigates whether and why calorie posting laws work. To do so, we develop a model of calories consumed that highlights two potential channels through which mandates influence choice and outlines an empirical strategy to disentangle these alternatives. We test the predictions of our model using data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to compare changes in body mass index (BMI), obesity, and consumer well-being in locations that implemented calorie-posting laws between 2008 and …

Kentucky Annual Economic Report 2020, Michael W. Clark, William H. Hoyt, Simon Sheather, Michael T. Childress

Kentucky Annual Economic Report

This report is one of the important ways that the Center for Business and Economic Research fulfills its mission to examine various aspects of the Kentucky economy. The analysis and data presented here cover a variety of topics that range from an economic forecast for Kentucky in 2020 to a broad presentation of factors affecting the economy.

50 Economic Facts And Figures About Kentucky, 2020, Michael Childress

CBER Infographic Posters

50 ECONOMIC FACTS AND FIGURES ABOUT KENTUCKY, 2020

The Effects Of E-Cigarette Taxes On E-Cigarette Prices And Tobacco Product Sales: Evidence From Retail Panel Data, Chad Cotti, Charles J. Courtemanche, Joanna Catherine Maclean, Erik Nesson, Michael F. Pesko, Nathan Tefft

Institute for the Study of Free Enterprise Working Papers

We explore the effect of e-cigarette taxes enacted through 2017 in eight states and two large counties on e-cigarette prices, e-cigarette sales, and sales of other tobacco products. We use the Nielsen Retail Scanner data for the years 2011 to 2017, comprising approximately 35,000 retailers nationally. We calculate a Herfindahl–Hirschman Index of 0.251 for retail-based purchases of e-cigarettes, indicating high market concentration. We estimate a tax-to-price pass-through of 1.55 (p < 0.01) and an e-cigarette own-price elasticity of -2.6 (p < 0.01) for the average e-cigarette tax. We also estimate a positive cross-price elasticity of demand for e-cigarettes and traditional cigarettes of roughly 1.1 for the average tax, suggesting that e-cigarettes and traditional cigarettes are economic substitutes. Our results suggest that higher e-cigarette taxes would increase e-cigarette prices and reduce e-cigarette sales, with an unintended effect of increasing traditional cigarette sales. We simulate that for every one standard e-cigarette pod (a device that contains liquid nicotine in e-cigarettes) of 0.7 ml no longer purchased as a result of an e-cigarette tax, the same tax increases traditional cigarettes purchased by 6.2 extra packs.

Time Spent Exercising And Obesity: An Application Of Lewbel’S Instrumental Variables Method, Charles J. Courtemanche, Joshua C. Pinkston, Jay Stewart

Institute for the Study of Free Enterprise Working Papers

This paper examines the role physical activity plays in determining body mass using data from the American Time Use Survey. Our work is the first to address the measurement error that arises when time use during a single day—rather than average daily time use over an extended period—is used as an explanatory variable. We show that failing to account for day-to-day variation in activities results in the effects of time use on a typical day being understated. Furthermore, we account for the possibility that physical activity and body mass are jointly determined by implementing Lewbel’s instrumental variables estimator that exploits …

The Coffee In Your Cup: Reviewing Fair Trade’S Impact On Development, Elena Liu

Oswald Research and Creativity Competition

Fair trade is one of many certification strategies available to coffee producers around the globe. The fair trade (FT) movement broke into the American coffee industry with strategies aimed at reducing global poverty among farmers in developing nations, primarily using the FMP and FP mechanisms. This review will discuss why research on the development effects of fair trade is increasingly nebulous, how researchers have analyzed it up until now, their findings, and future recommendations to improve the clarity of results. Current literature on fair trade’s impact provides consistent reports of higher prices attained, but inconclusive findings surrounding increased income and …