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Social Support Substitution And The Earnings Rebound: Evidence From A Regression Discontinuity In Disability Insurance Reform, Lex Borghans, Anne C. Gielen, Erzo F. P. Luttmer Nov 2014

Social Support Substitution And The Earnings Rebound: Evidence From A Regression Discontinuity In Disability Insurance Reform, Lex Borghans, Anne C. Gielen, Erzo F. P. Luttmer

Dartmouth Scholarship

We exploit a cohort discontinuity in the stringency of Dutch disability reforms to estimate the effects of decreased DI (disability insurance) generosity on behavior of existing recipients. We find evidence of social support substitution: individuals on average offset €1.00 of lost DI benefits by collecting €0.30 more from other social assistance programs, but this benefit-substitution effect declines over time. Individuals also exhibit a rebound in earnings: earnings increase by €0.62 on average per euro of lost DI benefits and this effect remains roughly constant over time. This is strong evidence of substantial remaining earnings capacity among long-term claimants of DI.


Medium Term Business Cycles In Developing Countries, Diego Comin, Norman Loayza, Farooq Pasha, Luis Serven Oct 2014

Medium Term Business Cycles In Developing Countries, Diego Comin, Norman Loayza, Farooq Pasha, Luis Serven

Dartmouth Scholarship

Business cycle fluctuations in developed economies (N) tend to have large and persistent e§ects on developing countries (S). We study the transmission of business cycle fluctuations for developed to developing economies with a two-country asymmetric DSGE model with two features: (i) endogenous and slow diffusion of technologies from the developed to the developing country, and (ii) adjustment costs to investment flows. Consistent with the model we observe that the flow of technologies from N to S co-moves positively with output in both N and S. After calibrating the model to Mexico and the U.S., it can explain the following stylized …


Wall Street And The Housing Bubble, Ing-Haw Cheng, Sahil Raina, Wei Xiong Sep 2014

Wall Street And The Housing Bubble, Ing-Haw Cheng, Sahil Raina, Wei Xiong

Dartmouth Scholarship

We analyze whether mid-level managers in securitized finance were aware of a large-scale housing bubble and a looming crisis in 2004-2006 using their personal home transaction data. We find that the average person in our sample neither timed the market nor were cautious in their home transactions, and did not exhibit awareness of problems in overall housing markets. Certain groups of securitization agents were particularly aggressive in increasing their exposure to housing during this period, suggesting the need to expand the incentives-based view of the crisis to incorporate a role for beliefs.


Promotional Reviews: An Empirical Investigation Of Online Review Manipulation, Dina Mayzlin, Yaniv Dover, Judith Chevalier Aug 2014

Promotional Reviews: An Empirical Investigation Of Online Review Manipulation, Dina Mayzlin, Yaniv Dover, Judith Chevalier

Dartmouth Scholarship

Firms' incentives to manufacture biased user reviews impede review usefulness. We examine the differences in reviews for a given hotel between two sites: Expedia.com (only a customer can post a review) and TripAdvisor.com (anyone can post). We argue that the net gains from promotional reviewing are highest for independent hotels with single-unit owners and lowest for branded chain hotels with multi-unit owners. We demonstrate that the hotel neighbors of hotels with a high incentive to fake have more negative reviews on TripAdvisor relative to Expedia; hotels with a high incentive to fake have more positive reviews on TripAdvisor relative to …


Health, Education, And The Post-Retirement Evolution Of Household Assets, James Poterba, Steven Venti, David A. Wise Jun 2014

Health, Education, And The Post-Retirement Evolution Of Household Assets, James Poterba, Steven Venti, David A. Wise

Dartmouth Scholarship

We explore the relationship between education and the evolution of wealth after retirement. Asset growth following retirement depends in part on health capital and financial capital accumulated prior to retirement, which in turn are strongly related to educational attainment. These "initial conditions" at retirement can have a lingering effect on subsequent asset evolution. We aim to disentangle the effects of education that operate through health and financial pathways (such as Social Security benefits and the general level of health) prior to retirement from the effects of education that impinge directly on asset evolution afterretirement. We also consider the additional …


Why Do Hedgers Trade So Much?, Ing-Haw Cheng, Wei Xiong Jun 2014

Why Do Hedgers Trade So Much?, Ing-Haw Cheng, Wei Xiong

Dartmouth Scholarship

Futures positions of commercial hedgers in wheat, corn, soybeans and cotton fluctuate much more than expected output. Hedgers' short positions are positively correlated with price changes. Together, these observations raise doubt about the common practice of categorically classifying trading by hedgers as hedging while trading by speculators as speculation, as hedgers frequently change their futures positions over time for reasons unrelated to output fluctuations, arguably a form of speculation.


Do Male-Female Wage Differentials Reflect Differences In The Return To Skill? Cross-City Evidence From 1980–2000, Paul Beaudry, Ethan Lewis Apr 2014

Do Male-Female Wage Differentials Reflect Differences In The Return To Skill? Cross-City Evidence From 1980–2000, Paul Beaudry, Ethan Lewis

Dartmouth Scholarship

Male-female wage gaps declined significantly over the 1980s and 1990s, while returns to education increased. In this paper, we use cross-city data to explore whether, like the return to education, the change in the gender wage gap may reflect changes in skill prices induced by the diffusion of information technology. We show that male-female and education-wage differentials moved in opposite directions in response to the adoption of PCs. Our most credible estimates simply that changes in skill prices driven by PC adoption can explain most of the decline in the US male-female wage gap since 1980.


School Choice, School Quality And Postsecondary Attainment, David J. Deming, Justine S. Hastings, Thomas J. Kane, Douglas O. Staiger Mar 2014

School Choice, School Quality And Postsecondary Attainment, David J. Deming, Justine S. Hastings, Thomas J. Kane, Douglas O. Staiger

Dartmouth Scholarship

We study the impact of a public school choice lottery in Charlotte-Mecklenburg schools on college enrollment and degree completion. We find a significant overall increase in college attainment among lottery winners who attend their first choice school. Using rich administrative data on peers, teachers, course offerings and other inputs, we show that the impacts of choice are strongly predicted by gains on several measures of school quality. Gains in attainment are concentrated among girls. Girls respond to attending a better school with higher grades and increases in college-preparatory course-taking, while boys do not.


Innovation Rivalry: Theory And Empirics, John T. Scott, Troy J. Scott Mar 2014

Innovation Rivalry: Theory And Empirics, John T. Scott, Troy J. Scott

Dartmouth Scholarship

This paper develops the theory of a U relation between seller concentration and R&D investment and integrates the new theory with the traditional expectation of an inverted-U relation. The paper illustrates the U relation, and the integrated U and inverted-U relations, for a single type of R&D performed in most industries, exploiting differences in the degree of structural competition across industries while admitting little if any variation in the type of R&D.


Consumer Credit: Too Much Or Too Little (Or Just Right)?, Jonathan Zinman Feb 2014

Consumer Credit: Too Much Or Too Little (Or Just Right)?, Jonathan Zinman

Dartmouth Scholarship

The intersection of research and policy on consumer credit often has a Goldilocks feel. Some researchers and policy makers posit that consumer credit markets produce too much credit. Other researchers and policy makers posit that markets produce too little credit. I review theories and evidence on inefficient consumer credit supply. For each of eight classes of theories I sketch some of the leading models and summarize any convincing empirical tests of those models. I also discuss more circumstantial evidence that does not map tightly onto a particular model but has the potential to shed light on, or obscure, answers to …


Tax Morale, Erzo F. P. Luttmer, Monica Singhal Jan 2014

Tax Morale, Erzo F. P. Luttmer, Monica Singhal

Dartmouth Scholarship

There is an apparent disconnect between much of the academic literature on tax compliance and the administration of tax policy. In the benchmark economic model, the key policy parameters affecting tax evasion are the tax rate, the detection probability, and the penalty imposed conditional on the evasion being detected. Meanwhile, tax administrators also tend to place a great deal of emphasis on the importance of improving "tax morale," by which they generally mean increasing voluntary compliance with tax laws and creating a social norm of compliance. We will define tax morale broadly to include nonpecuniary motivations for tax compliance as …


Five Facts About Value-Added Exports And Implications For Macroeconomics And Trade Research, Robert C. Johnson Jan 2014

Five Facts About Value-Added Exports And Implications For Macroeconomics And Trade Research, Robert C. Johnson

Dartmouth Scholarship

Due to the rise of global supply chains, gross exports do not accurately measure the amount of value added exchanged between countries. I highlight five facts about differences between gross and value-added exports. These differences are large and growing over time, currently around 25 percent, and manufacturing trade looks more important, relative to services, in gross than value-added terms. These differences are also heterogenous across countries and bilateral partners, and changing unevenly across countries and partners over time. Taking these differences into account enables researchers to obtain better quantitative answers to important macroeconomic and trade questions. I discuss how the …


Informality And Development, Rafael La Porta, Andrei Shleifer Jan 2014

Informality And Development, Rafael La Porta, Andrei Shleifer

Dartmouth Scholarship

In developing countries, informal firms account for up to half of economic activity. They provide livelihood for billions of people. Yet their role in economic development remains controversial with some viewing informality as pent-up potential and others viewing informality as a parasitic organizational form that hinders economic growth. In this paper, we assess these perspectives. We argue that the evidence is most consistent with dual models, in which informality arises out of poverty and the informal and formal sectors are very different. It seems that informal firms have low productivity and produce low- quality products; and, consequently, they do not …