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Swat-Sir Model For Predicting Fate And Transport Of Manure-Borne Pathogens In Fragmented Agriculture-Forest Ecosystems, Andrey K. Guber, David M. Williams, Amy C. Dechen Quinn, Sushil B. Tamrakar, Joan B. Rose, William F. Porter

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The objective of this study was to develop and qualitatively evaluate a model predicting transmission of manure-borne pathogens between co-grazing cattle and wildlife. The developed add- on module SIR that we coupled with SWAT model included the following new components: wildlife population changes, resource selection, dose-response, compartmental susceptible-infectious- recovered (SIR) module and pathogen shedding. Probabilities of the wild and domestic animal infection by pathogens and numbers of infected animals were computed based on a dose-response approach, which included beta-Poisson and exponential models. Land use and plant biomass predicted with watershed-scale model SWAT were used as the input for the deer …