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Statistical Computation For Extreme Bridge Traffic Load Effects, Colin C. Caprani, E. J. O'Brien
Statistical Computation For Extreme Bridge Traffic Load Effects, Colin C. Caprani, E. J. O'Brien
Conference papers
The maintenance of highway infrastructure constitutes a major expenditure in many countries. This cost can be reduced significantly by minimizing the repair or replacement of highway bridges. In the assessment of existing bridges, the strength estimate tends to be more accurate than that of traffic loading, due to the more variable nature of loading. Recent advances in the statistical analysis of highway bridge traffic loading have resulted in more accurate forecasts of the actual loading to which a bridge is subject. While these advances require extensive numerical computation, they can significantly improve the accuracy of the calculation. This paper outlines …
Estimating Risk Of Failure Of Engineering Structures Using Predictive Likelihood, Colin C. Caprani, A. Bordallo-Ruiz, E. J. O'Brien
Estimating Risk Of Failure Of Engineering Structures Using Predictive Likelihood, Colin C. Caprani, A. Bordallo-Ruiz, E. J. O'Brien
Conference papers
It has been common engineering practice to define characteristic values for loading and capacity of structures in order to assess the structural capacity of existing structures. This approach, yet practical and intuitive, lead to the comparison of deterministic values (characteristic values) that had to represent all the variability of the problem and is considered to be conservative, as usually loading is overestimated and capacity underestimated, yielding to calculations with high safety margins for the extreme events. Probabilistics methods have tried to overcom e this limitation by computing the overall probability of failure (Pf) for the lifetime of the structure, taking …
Study Of Same-Lane And Inter-Lane Gvw Correlation, Bernard Enright, Eugene J. O'Brien, Colin C. Caprani
Study Of Same-Lane And Inter-Lane Gvw Correlation, Bernard Enright, Eugene J. O'Brien, Colin C. Caprani
Conference papers
The methodology used is to generate a number of years of simulated traffic and to use extreme value statistics to predict more accurately the characteristic loading for a given bridge. The parameters and probability distributions used in the Monte Carlo simulation must be based on observed sample traffic data. Some previous studies have made unsubstantiated assumptions regarding correlation between the Gross Vehicle Weights (GVW) of trucks in the same lane, or between trucks in adjacent, same-direction lanes. For this paper, an extensive database of Dutch Weigh-in-Motion data is analysed. Data are collected from two same-direction lanes and are time-stamped to …