Digital Commons Network^™

Retention Prediction And Policy Optimization For United States Air Force Personnel Management, Joseph C. Hoecherl

Theses and Dissertations

Effective personnel management policies in the United States Air Force (USAF) require methods to predict the number of personnel who will remain in the USAF as well as to replenish personnel with different skillsets over time as they depart. To improve retention predictions, we develop and test traditional random forest models and feedforward neural networks as well as partially autoregressive forms of both, outperforming the benchmark on a test dataset by 62.8% and 34.8% for the neural network and the partially autoregressive neural network, respectively. We formulate the workforce replenishment problem as a Markov decision process for active duty enlisted …

Emergency Logistics Stochastic Network Optimization With Prepositioning And Distribution Center Support, Christian Graves

Theses and Dissertations

This study examines the Air Force Medical Service War Reserve Materiel supply chain management through the use of the supply chain optimization software anyLogistix. The goal is to illuminate potential improvements to policies that effect inventory management and test the effects of specific inputs, such as an influx of network support and capacity expansion, into the models. Network optimization shows the cost benefit analysis of these factors and if demand is satisfied through all demand points. Through three unique wartime scenarios, this study looks at the supply chain management of five prehospital analgesic medications: ketamine, morphine, fentanyl intravenous, fentanyl oral …

An Analysis Of Telework Performance During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Patrick J. Lopez

Theses and Dissertations

The COVID-19 pandemic forced many individuals to shift from an atmosphere of face-to-face work to the digital work environment known as telework. Telework is an effective mitigation tool that ensures the continuity of operations. However, maximized telework may not be effective for all individuals. Many individual, organizational, and group level factors influence one’s telework performance and this study examines four of the most influential antecedents. Using linear regression analysis, conscientiousness, overload, communication, and non-distractibility were found to be significant predictors that account for over half the variance explained in telework performance. Supported by self-regulation theories, both conscientiousness and non-distractibility contained …

Shifting Satellite Control Paradigms: Operational Cybersecurity In The Age Of Megaconstellations, Carl A. Poole [*], Robert A. Bettinger, Mark Reith

Faculty Publications

The introduction of automated satellite control systems into a space-mission environment historically dominated by human-in-the-loop operations will require a more focused understanding of cybersecurity measures to ensure space system safety and security. On the ground-segment side of satellite control, the debut of privately owned communication antennas for rent and a move to cloud-based operations or mission centers will bring new requirements for cyber protection for both Department of Defense and commercial satellite operations alike. It is no longer a matter of whether automation will be introduced to satellite operations, but how quickly satellite operators can adapt to the onset of …

Developing A Basic Formal Supply Chain Ontology To Improve Communication And Interoperability, David Morrow

Theses and Dissertations

Information is crucial to supply chain performance because it is used to make decisions and trigger actions. Organizations across world-class supply chains increasingly use information technology to analyze and process supply chain data. However, supply chain management lacks a common language, making information exchange difficult. An ontology can provide a standardized framework that organizes a given knowledge domain. This research proposes a common language for developing a supply chain ontology that can be built into a basic formal ontology understood by both humans and computers. According to current research, an established and widely used supply chain framework is a good …

Modeling Air Force Retention With Macroeconomic Indicators, Michelle K. Mcgee

Theses and Dissertations

Officer retention has been a longstanding problem for Air Force leadership. Both intuition and previous research suggest economic and demographic factors play important roles in an officers decision to separate from service. Leading economic indicators are nationally reported statistics that tend to be predictive of where the economy is heading. This work targets the research gap of how leading economic indicators explain and predict attrition. Due to the noisy, complex nature of the data, the model had varied success in accurately predicting future attrition rates. As a result of this research, the current models can incorporate these findings to become …

Guidance For Building Motivation In Space Operator Training, Foster E. Davis

Theses and Dissertations

Services provided by spacecraft, including communications and global positioning, are integral to small businesses, multinational corporations, and the United States Department of Defense. United States rivals recognize the need to undermine the military advantage provided by the space domain and are exploring ways to degrade these services in their warfare doctrine. In response, the United States will need space systems suited to counter these threats and personnel who are trained to respond to the new reality of a contested space environment. This paper also reviews the academic literature and written guidelines for developing motivation in an interactive environment for improving …

An Examination Into Retention Behavior Of Air Force Female Officers, Jessica M. Astudillo

Theses and Dissertations

Female retention rates in the US military have been considerably lower than that of their male counterparts for numerous years. In the Air Force, women represent 14 percent of officer ranks from O-5 level and above. Comparatively, the overall rate of women officers in service is 20 percent. Understanding the negative factors associated with the attrition rate of this group can help the Air Force leverage positive change. It may also influence adjustments that will increase the number of women serving, and improve diversity throughout both the officer and enlisted ranks. In this study, logistic regression and survival analysis are …

Forecasting Attrition By Afsc For The United States Air Force, Trey S. Pujats

Theses and Dissertations

Retention and personnel management is a challenge for every organization, particularly the military due to its hierarchical structure and barriers to entry. Talent must be developed and retained to become leaders, beginning at the lowest level in the Air Force. The Air Force faces a retention problem unlike most organizations that requires a unique perspective and tailored solution to each Air Force Specialty Code (AFSC). There exists previous efforts to predict attrition rates in the Air Force based on economic factors. This study expands upon the economic factors and tailors the predictor variables of attrition based on the AFSC. The …

Applying Data Organizational Techniques To Enhance Air Force Learning, Jacob A. Orner

Theses and Dissertations

The USAF and the DoD use traditional schoolhouses to educate and train personnel. The physical aspects of these schoolhouses limit throughput. A method to increase throughput is to shift towards an asynchronous learning environment where students move through content at individually. This research introduces a methodology for transforming a set of unstructured documents into an organized TM students can use to orient themselves in a domain. The research identifies learning paths within the TM to create a directed KSAT. We apply this methodology in four case studies, each an education or training course. Using a graph comparison metric and the …

Recognizing Potential Cyberspace Warriors Through The Use Of Suspicion Propensity Index, Meghan G. Strang

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force currently suffers from excessively high attrition rates in the cyberspace career. The field is currently aiming to develop an entrance examination for the career, striving to improve personnel selection and decrease these high attrition rates. The attribute of suspicion is a key focus of the preliminary examination development, theorizing that it is a potential indicator present among competent cyber operators. This research makes use of the Suspicion Propensity Index (SPI), a reliable measure of one’s tendency to be suspicious, along with the highly cited Mayer’s trust questionnaire in order to compare the attributes that appear in successful …

Research In Defense Logistics: Where Are We And Where Are We Going?, George A. Zsidisin, Amanda Bresler, Benjamin T. Hazen, Keith F. Schneider, Taylor H. Wilkerson

Faculty Publications

The purpose of this paper is to provide insight on high-interest areas of research in defense-related logistics and supply chain management and opportunities for advancing theory and practice in this domain.

Trust And Suspicion As A Function Of Cyber Security In Human Machine Team (Hmt) Of Unmanned Systems, Dhaher M. Alshammari

Theses and Dissertations

The research focuses on cyber-attacks on cyber-physical systems of the unmanned vehicles that are characteristically used in the military, particularly the Air Force. Unmanned systems are exposed to various risks as the capacity of cyber attackers continue to expand, raising the need for speedy and immediate responses. The advances in military technologies form the basis of the research that explores the challenges faced in the timely detection and response to cyber-attacks. The purpose of the research is to study the connections between operator suspicion and the detection and response to cyber-attacks alongside the identification of theory of suspicion as the …

Operational Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Inferential, Sequential, And Adversarial Approaches, Andrew J. Keith

Theses and Dissertations

Modern security threats are characterized by a stochastic, dynamic, partially observable, and ambiguous operational environment. This dissertation addresses such complex security threats using operations research techniques for decision making under uncertainty in operations planning, analysis, and assessment. First, this research develops a new method for robust queue inference with partially observable, stochastic arrival and departure times, motivated by cybersecurity and terrorism applications. In the dynamic setting, this work develops a new variant of Markov decision processes and an algorithm for robust information collection in dynamic, partially observable and ambiguous environments, with an application to a cybersecurity detection problem. In the …

A Cost-Benefit Analysis Of Pilot Training Next, Talon M. Pope

Theses and Dissertations

The United States Air Force (USAF) is currently facing a 2,400-pilot shortage in an increasingly constrained budgetary environment. Without pilots to engage the enemy, deliver weapons, and provide logistics support for operations, the USAF could lose the ability to fly, fight, and win global engagements and defend the homeland. This study focused on Undergraduate Pilot Training (UPT) as a means of producing the USAF’s pilots to offset the current shortage. Specifically, this study compared UPT to the recently initiated Pilot Training-Next (PTN) program through a cost-benefit analysis. Like any new technology integration, PTN’s virtual reality training will require further study …

Operations Research Methods For Multi-Domain Campaign Phase Planning, John A. Schlicht

Theses and Dissertations

In "Antiaccess Warfare as Strategy," Tangredi posits the question and need to consider multiple domains and governmental and warfighting functions in various phases of campaign execution. Multi-domain integration within and across various phases of the joint campaign presents a host of non-linear factors that are compounded and amplified by uncertainties. Colonel Blotto is a simple game that is suited to compare traditional force-on-force military engagements where mass wins the day, but have had limited application to more complex military planning. This thesis explores the formulation schema, data-driven parameters, methods of calculation, and scenarios applicable to a generalized Colonel Blotto (General …

Commercialization Analysis Of Sbir Funded Technologies, Theodore A. Rask

Theses and Dissertations

The United States Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Program invests $2.2 billion annually into domestic innovation stimulation. The Department of Defense (DoD) contributes almost $1 billion of that investment; of which the Air Force accounts for 25%. Commercialization, either the transfer to programs of record or further industrial investment, is the program’s objective. Data from this research indicates that Air Force programs have a 7.6% commercialization rate; representing an opportunity to improve. Leveraging best practices from industry; this research provides a method to align investments with needed capabilities. This method exploits established user need taxonomies, the DoD Joint Capability Area …

Developmental Test And Requirements Best Practices Of Successful Information Systems Efforts Using Agile Methods, Jeremy D. Kramer, Torrey J. Wagner

Faculty Publications

This article provides insights into the current state of developmental testing (DT) and requirements management in Department of Defense information systems employing Agile development. The authors describe the study methodology and provide an overview of Agile development and testing. Insights are described for requirements, detailed planning, test execution, and reporting. This work articulates best practices related to DT and requirements management strategies for programs employing modernized Software Development Life Cycle practices.

Cyber War And Deterrence: Applying A General Theoretical Framework, Isaac Nacita [*], Mark Reith

Faculty Publications

There is a saying that politicians and generals are always fighting the last war, which is emphasized when the weapons and characteristics of warfare are changing rapidly. However, if this is true, it is often not due to an inability to learn lessons from previous conflicts, but to “overlearn” or overcompensate for the failures and experiences of the past. In reality, this is not a learning problem but one of forming poor implications from historical events, which leads to poor applications of doctrine the next time around. The DOD now acknowledges that warfare has extended into cyberspace, and it is …

Investigating Capability Development Management For The Air Force Strategic Development Planning And Experimentation (Spde) Office, Sarah M. Pak

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force provides unique capabilities for the defense of our nation. Capabilities do not come to fruition instantly; they must go through a development process. Managing the development of a capability is a difficult but necessary task. In 2016, a report from the Air Force Studies Board prompted the Air Force to focus on the Capability Development Process and its improvement. In response to the report, the Strategic Development Planning & Experimentation (SDPE) Office was formed. The SDPE Office is tasked to support Enterprise Capability Collaboration Teams (ECCTs), which are, in turn, tasked to research and solve prominent issues …

Benchmarking Dod Use Of Additive Manufacturing And Quantifying Costs, Ryan C. Crean

Theses and Dissertations

Additive Manufacturing (AM), or three-dimensional (3D) printing as it is commonly referred to, is a rapidly developing technology that has the potential to revolutionize the way that firms develop and produce parts, as well as how they manage their supply chains. AM allows organizations to "print" prototypes, parts, tools, fixtures, tooling and a variety of other items at their production location. This can remove long lead times and high inventory levels for one-time or rare items. This research examines current AM use within the military services. Additionally, this study details the costs associated with fielding different levels of AM capability, …

Global Command And Control For The Future Operating Concept: Implications For Structural Design And Information, Ian M. Slazinik, Benjamin T. Hazen

Faculty Publications

Due to increasing demands on air mobility aircraft, US Transportation Command(USTRANSCOM) has more recently advocated retaining operational control (OPCON)of aircraft it might have transferred to a requesting combatant command in the past. This recent approach mirrors that of similar-type civilian logistics operations that are centrally managed to maximize efficiencies by flowing resources to the point of need without having to navigate through time-consuming sourcing processes. Furthermore, the acceleration of information availability has condensed decision timelines and changed how similar civilian organizations organize and perform, allowing them to react seemingly on a dime to changing market conditions anywhere.4While retaining OPCON might …

Improving The Nuclear Reform Implementation For Success, Allen Y. Agnes

Theses and Dissertations

This research identifies the method used for successful implementations. This method is critical to the nuclear enterprise as it will continually guide the program. Post-Cold War began an era of decline in the nuclear enterprise. Leaders were risk-averse in fear of being fired for making mistakes, the nuclear culture lost its experts, organizations were drawn to the conventional fight, and training lacked the priority necessary to rebuild the nuclear enterprise. In 2007 and 2008 two major incidents occurred, a necessary to bring focus and priority back to the nuclear enterprise. Several reports were accomplished to identify the issues and recommendations. …

Cost Analysis Reform: Where Do We Go From Here? A Delphi Study Of Views Of Leading Experts, Thomas W. Lamb

Theses and Dissertations

The Department of Defense (DOD) has faced many fiscal challenges in recent years, and these challenges have driven cost saving initiatives across all services and career fields. Many improvement initiatives or new policies aimed at better estimating, controlling, and reducing costs have been initiated to meet fiscal challenges. The senior leaders within the cost analysis workforce are faced with the challenge of managing change within their organizations to improve cost analysis processes and practices, while continuing to provide key decision support in the form of ongoing quality cost estimates.

This purpose of this research is to generate applicable research thrust …

Forging Tomorrow's Air, Space, And Cyber War Fighters: Recommendations For Integration And Development, Mark Reith

Faculty Publications

Today’s Airmen operate in contested environments, and years of technical-data spillage, coupled with policies emphasizing commercial-off-the-shelf acquisition, ensure that the immediate future will remain contested as our adversaries seek to exploit level playing fields. Long gone are the days of Operation Desert Storm and Enduring Freedom when air superiority dominated and the supporting elements of space, communications, and computers were largely out of reach for many nation-states. Since then, technology has become ubiquitously intertwined in weapon systems and today largely turns the gears of warfare, allowing a range of actors to erode national instruments of power.

Decision Analysis Using Value-Focused Thinking For Retention Of Long-Term Officers In The Korean Army, Jaebum Kim

Theses and Dissertations

The North Korean attacks on the South Korean naval vessel, the Cheonan, and on the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong in 2010 have resulted in the deterioration of the relationship between North and South Korea. The death of Kim Jong Il in December 2011 has raised serious concerns over the future of North Korea and political stability on the Korean Peninsula. Against this background, South Korea has continued its agenda of military reform to improve the retention and management of its military personnel. However, South Korea needs better methods and measures for evaluating its personnel to distinguish highly qualified officers …

Personnel, The Class 0 Supply Item: A Logistics Management Approach To Supplying Combatant Commanders With Warfighters, William P. Beard

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force's end strength has drawn down from 530,000 to just over 332,000 in the past 20 years. All indications are that resources will continue to become more restricted in the future, including manpower. Meanwhile, studies indicate that the Air Force will likely continue to withdraw permanently stationed forces overseas and rely increasingly on the Air Expeditionary Force (AEF) construct for rapid mobility and force projection. With the AEF and efficient manpower utilization projected to become increasingly important, this study provides the first examination of the AEF as an overarching process for improvement opportunities. It proposes that the concept …

Air Force Institute Of Technology Strategic Plan 2011-2014, Air Force Institute Of Technology, Walter D. Givhan

AFIT Documents

No abstract provided.

Assessing The Alignment Of Information Security With Strategic Business, And Strategic Information System Planning: A Department Of Defense Perspective, John H. Scanlan Iv

Theses and Dissertations

This research extends the Strategic Information Systems Plan (SISP) and Strategic Business Plan (SBP) alignment model construct by adding the Information Security Plan (ISP) as an additional component considered essential to the success of network centric organizations. Six hypotheses were considered to measure the two-way alignment among three components of the proposed model. The research was adapted for a public sector organization and analyzed using the Kruskal-Wallis non-parametric test. A vertical, cross-sectional sample from the United States Marine Corps, a Department of Defense organization, was surveyed (n = 149). Results indicate a strong two-way alignment exists between SISP - SBP …

Supply Chain Resilience: Assessing Usaf Weapon System Life Cycle, Brian P. Tobin

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force Global Logistics Support Center (AFGLSC) is responsible for the United States Air Force’s supply chain. One of the AFGLSC’s responsibilities is to improve AF supply chain processes. This thesis investigates the subject of supply chain resilience and its potential impact for improving supply chain management. Through literature a supply chain resilience framework and measurement tool was identified for potential benefit to Air Force supply chain management. Air Force weapon systems were identified and segmented into two phases of the weapon system life cycle. This research analyzes data collected on supply chain resilience factors, vulnerabilities and capabilities, for …