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Climactic Niche Model For Overwintering Monarch Butterflies In A Topographically Complex Region Of California, Ashley Fisher, Kiana Saniee, Charis Van Der Heide, Jessica Griffiths, Daniel Meade, Francis X. Villablanca

Biological Sciences

We use climatic conditions that are associated with known monarch butterfly overwintering groves in California to build a Maxent model, and focus on the fine scale probability of overwintering grove occurrence in a topographically complex region of the state (Santa Barbara County). Grove locations are known from recent and historical surveys and a long-term citizen science database. The climatic niche model performs well, predicting that overwintering habitat is most likely to occur along the coast and at low elevations, as shown by empirical data. We then use climatic variables in conjunction with climate change scenarios to model the future location …