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Evaluation Of Uncertainty For The Determination Of Thiocyanate In Cheese By Inhibited Conductivity Ion Chromatography, Pan Can-Sheng, Zhang Zhi-Zhou, Xia Bing, Zhang Fei, Wu Ping, Wu Ling-Tao

Food and Machinery

Objective: To evaluate the uncertainty of the determination of thiocyanate in cheese by inhibition conductance ion chromatography. Methods: The content of thiocyanate in cheese was determined by inhibition conductance ion chromatography and a mathematical model was established. The source of uncertainty introduced in the process of the experiment was described, and the synthetic uncertainty was calculated for each uncertainty component. Results: The determination of thiocyanate was （10.2±0.56） mg/kg, k=2, p=95%. Conclusion: The uncertainty in the measurement process mainly comes from the concentration of thiocyanate in the test solution, followed by sample recovery and repeatability experiments.

Evaluation Of Uncertainty In Determination Of Enrofloxacin And Ciprofloxacin Residues In Bean Sprouts By Ultra Performance Liquid Chromatography-Tandem Mass Spectrometry, Yuan-Xu Shi, Shui-Feng Zhang, Xiang-Jie Pan, Ting-Ting Feng, Lu-Lu Wang

Food and Machinery

A method for the determination of trace-enrofloxacin and ciprofloxacin in bean sprouts by using ultra- performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry was established. The mathematical model was established and used to evaluate the uncertainty components of this method. The sample was extracted with 0.1% acid acetonitrile directly, and purified by prime HLB (SPE), then analyzed by UPLC-MS/MS. The results showed that the main sources of uncertainty arose from the standard curve fitting and standard solution. The expanded uncertainty was 1.5 and 2.3 μg/kg for enrofloxacin and ciprofloxacin contents of 8.6 and 11.0 μg/kg in bean sprouts (k=2), respectively.

Evaluation Of Uncertainty In Chemical Analysis Laboratory Using Control Chart, Jing Li, Xin-Xin Xiao, Xian-Jin Guo

Food and Machinery

According to the test method of GB/T 5750.6—2006, the cadmium content in drinking water was measured by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectroscopy, and the accumulated data was statistically analyzed based on the Top-down control chart method. The extended uncertainty was 0.30 μg/L (k=2,P=95%). Using Top-down control chart method to assess the uncertainty is statistically rigorous, and has a wide range of application prospects.

Uncertainty Evaluation For Determination Of Isocarbophos Residues In Tea By Quechers-Gas Chromatography-Tandem Mass Spectrometry, Lu Zhenhua, Yu Lifang, Cai Danping, Li Cheng

Food and Machinery

Objective:The uncertainty of determination of Isocarbophos residues in tea by using QuEChERS-gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry techniqne was evaluated. Methods:Isocarbophos residues in tea was determined by using "GB 23200.113—2018 National food safety Standard-Determination of 208 pesticides and metabolites residues in plant origin-Gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method", and factors in the determination of isocarbophos were analyzed by establishing a mathematical model, including sample weighing, volume, calibration of standard solutions, repeatability and recovery rate, etc.. Results:When the residual amount of isocarbophos in tea was 0.050 mg/kg, the expanded uncertainty was 0.007 mg/kg, and the determination result was expressed as:ω …

Uncertainty Evaluation For The Determination Of Natural Capsaicin, Dihydrocapsaicin And Synthetic Capsaicin In Edible Oils And Fats By Lc-Ms/Ms, Huang Hui, Liao Yan-Zhi

Food and Machinery

Objective: Uncertainty assessment of the content of synthetic capsaicin, natural capsaicin and dihydrocapsaicin in edible oils and fats by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry was carried out, and the sources of uncertainty and the key factors affecting the test results were analyzed, so as to improve the accuracy of test results.Methods: To establish a mathematical model for the uncertainty of the content of synthetic capsaicin, natural capsaicin and dihydrocapsaicin in edible oils and fats, to analyze the factors that may introduce uncertainty in the detection process, and to evaluate each uncertainty component.Results: The contents of synthetic capsaicin, natural capsaicin and …

Evaluation On Uncertainty Of Advantame In Syrups Determined By High Performance Liquid Chromatography, Lei De-Qing, Zhong Fei-Fei, Zhou Jin-Sha, Liu Bo, Wang Zi-Qian, Zhou Ya-Min

Food and Machinery

Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the uncertainty of determination by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) for the content of adevantame, a synthetic sweetener illegally added in syrup drugs. Methods: The sample is diluted with solvent, and the content of adevantame in the sample was determined by HPLC. Through the analysis of the factors affecting the uncertainty, such as the preparation of the reference solution, curve fitting, sample weighing, sample volumetric determination and instrument precision, the uncertainty was synthesized of each component, and the extended uncertainty is calculated. Results: The expanded uncertainty is 1.8 μg/mL. The influence …

Evaluation Of Uncertainty In Determination Of Five Kinds Of Carbamate Pesticide Residues In Apple By Liquid Chromatography-Post-Column Derivatization, Yu Xing, Chang Wei, Wang Yong-Lin, Yao Zeng

Food and Machinery

Objective: This study aimed to analyze the accuracy of determination results of five kinds of carbamate pesticide residues in apple. Methods: Five kinds of carbamate pesticide residues in apples were detected according to NY/T 761—2008, and the uncertainty of the determination process was evaluated and analyzed. Results: The contents of carbosulfur, methomyl, 3-hydroxycarbamate, aldicarb and isoprocarb in apples are expressed in the form of expanded uncertainty as (0.105 7±0.007 8), (0.107 7±0.006 2), (0.109 2±0.005 8), (0.103 9±0.008 4), (0.106 1±0.007 6) mg/kg (k=2). Conclusion: The main sources of uncertainty in the experiment are standard material, …

Evaluation Of Uncertainty In The Determination Of Acid Scarlet Gr In Orange Juice By High Performance Liquid Chromatography, Yuan Yuan, Zeng Hui, Xiao Yan, Yang Li-Xia, Cui Xiao-Jiao, Yang Yun, Wu Hou-Lu

Food and Machinery

Objective:The uncertainty of the determination of acid scarlet GR in orange juice by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) was evaluated. The source of uncertainty and the key factors affecting the test results were analyzed, so as to improve the accuracy of the test results.Methods:The mathematical model of uncertainty of acid scarlet GR content in orange juice was established. The factors that may introduce uncertainty in the detection process were analyzed, and the uncertainty components were evaluated.Results:The content of acid scarlet GR in self-made positive orange juice was 1.46 mg/kg, the expanded uncertainty was 0.11 mg/kg …

Uncertainty Evaluation On Determination Of Statins In Health Food By Gas Chromatography Mass Spectrometry (Gc-Ms), Zhang Li-Xia, Guo Qing-Yuan, Hua Qi-Cheng, Li Xiang-Mei

Food and Machinery

Objective:In presence of measurement uncertainty evaluation, the detection methods, with water-sodium chloride pretreatment, for health food was evaluated.Methods:A mathematical model was established to analysis of uncertainty sources. Then the individual components of uncertainty were evaluated. Finally, the combined uncertainty and extended uncertainty were calculated.Results:The uncertainty caused by several factors, including the fitting of the standard curve, the preparation of solution and standard, the repeatability of measurement, and the weigh of sample.The contents of mevastatin, lovastatin and simvastatin were 0.099 2, 0.101 0, 0.099 5 mg/kg in health foods, respectively. The relative combined standard uncertainties were …

Discrete Choice Experiments In Agricultural And Food Economics: Two Essays On Information Provision Modalities, Uncertainty Adjustment, And Hypothetical Bias, Monsoïa Arsène Juste Agossadou

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Stated discrete choice experiments are extensively used in applied economics to study preferences and valuation for new products, as well as costs and benefits of new policies and programs. Moreover, information provision experiments widely use the method to examine information effects on different outcomes. This thesis explores two methodological issues in discrete choice experiments: (i) information provision modalities and (ii) hypothetical bias. The first study examines the effect of information modality by testing the effect of using combined text script and audio clip (treatment) versus only text script (control) to convey information in discrete choice experiments. Specifically, the study elicits …

Uncertainty Evaluation Of Cadmium Content In Kelp (Laminaria Japonica) By Graphite Furnace Atomic Absorption Spectrometry, Liu Lan-Ying, Lu Xin, Li Ying, Luo Tu-Yan

Food and Machinery

Objective: To improve the accuracy of the results of cadmium (Cd) content in kelp (Laminaria japonica) by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (GF-AAS). Methods: The concentration of Cd element in kelp sample was measured by using GF-AAS after microwave digestion according to the standard of GB 5009.15—2014. Combining with the experimental process and mathematical model, the possible sources of measurement uncertainty were firstly identified, then the components of each standard uncertainties were calculated, and finally each parameter of uncertainties was synthesized, and the whole uncertainty was evaluated. Results: when the value of Cd concentration in kelp was 0.202 …

Evaluation Of Uncertainty In The Determination Of Ethyl Carbamate In Chinese Spirits By Isotope Dilution Gc-Ms Method, Wang Kai-Yu, Zuo Hui-Jun, Yu Xin-Xin, Du Yun, Ma Yan-Ling, Wu Shuai

Food and Machinery

According to GB 5009.223—2014 "National Standard for Food Safety, Determination of Ethyl Carbamate in Foods", the ethyl carbamate in liquor was determined, and the uncertainty of the measuring result was evaluated according to JJF 1059.1—2012 "Measurement Uncertainty Evaluation and Expression". Analysis found that the uncertainty of the measurement results was independent of not only the internal standard concentration of the isotope or the volumetric volume of the standard solution series, but also the volume of the sample after processing. Moreover, the uncertainty component introduced by the internal standard solution only related to the volume of the internal standard liquid. The …

Uncertainty Evaluation Of The Determination Of Vitamin C In Fruits And Vegetables By High Performance Liquid Chromatography, Wang Xia, Zhang Wei-Yi, Han Yi-Yi, Chen Mei-Lian, Feng Dong-Sheng

Food and Machinery

To evaluate the uncertainty of the determination of vitamin C in fruits and vegetables by high performance liquid chromatography, a mathematical model was established to evaluate each uncertainty component, and the standard uncertainty and extended uncertainty of the synthesis were calculated. The results showed that the amounts of vitamin C in samples was 33.7 mg/100 g, and the expanded uncertainty was 1.4 mg/100 g (k=2). The uncertainties of the determination mainly come from the preparation of standard solution and the repeatability of determination.

Uncertainty Evaluation For Determination Of Sibutramine In Health Foods By Liquid Chromatography-Tandem Mass Spectrometry, Wang Sai-Nan, Deng Ying-Chun, Gao Tian-Lan-Xing, Ren Meng-Ke, Wei Hua-Lin, Zhi Wen-Li, Guo Xu-Guang

Food and Machinery

To evaluate the uncertainty of the determination of sibutramine content in health foods by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. Methods according to BJS 201701 Determination of sibutramine in food,and the content of sibutramine in health foods was detected. According to the approach in measurement uncertainty and results indication(JJF 1059.1 2012), the uncertainty was analyzed, quantified and synthesized. When sibutramine content was 7.04 μg/g,the extended uncertainty was 0.197 μg/g (k=2) under the 95% confidence interval. The main influence factors of the uncertainties in the determination were standard curve fitting process.

Evaluation Of Uncertainty In Determination Of Inorganic Arsenic In Aquatic Products Of Tassle Filefish By High Performance Liquid Chromatography-Inductively Coupled With Plasma Mass Spectrometry, Zhou Tan-Chun, Wang Hui, Cui Xiao-Jiao, Zhou Peng, Li Ying, Deng Nan

Food and Machinery

The uncertainty evaluation in the determination of inorganic arsenic in tassle filefish by using High Performance Liquid Chromatography-Inductively Coupled with Plasma Mass Spectrometry was investigated, based on the GB 5009.11 2014 “national food safety standards on the determination of total arsenic and inorganic arsenic in food”. A mathematical model was established, referring to CNAS-GL006 Guidelines for “the Assessment of uncertainty in Chemical Analysis and JJF 1059.1 2012 Evaluation and Expression of Measurement Uncertainty”. The precision and recovery of As (III) and As (V) in maomile fish were verified. Meanwhile, the sources of uncertainty measurement of the experiment were analyzed and …

Neural Correlates Of Decision-Making Under Ambiguity And Conflict, Helen Pushkarskaya, Michael Smithson, Jane E. Joseph, Christine R. Corbly, Ifat Levy

Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

HIGHLIGHTS

• We use a simple gambles design in an fMRI study to compare two conditions: ambiguity and conflict.

• Participants were more conflict averse than ambiguity averse.

• Ambiguity aversion did not correlate with conflict aversion.

• Activation in the medial prefrontal cortex correlated with ambiguity level and ambiguity aversion.

• Activation in the ventral striatum correlated with conflict level and conflict aversion.

Studies of decision making under uncertainty generally focus on imprecise information about outcome probabilities (“ambiguity”). It is not clear, however, whether conflicting information about outcome probabilities affects decision making in the same manner as ambiguity does. …

Water Decision-Making Under Uncertainty, Augustina Yaa Oye Odame

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

This dissertation is made up of three separate studies under the unifying theme of “Water Decision-Making under Uncertainty.” The first study analyzed a farmer’s decision to invest in a more efficient irrigation system given uncertainty about future water supplies and his post-investment efficiency. It found the price at which farmers would no longer produce to be a bigger consideration in irrigation investment than previously thought. It also found support for a careful identification and consideration of all significant sources of uncertainty in order to create better policy incentives for irrigation technology investments.

The second study extended the first to allow …

Strategic Management In Agriculture (Recording), Steven Slezak

Steven Slezak

No abstract provided.

Uncertainty, Irreversibility, And Investment In Secondgeneration Biofuels, Tanner Joseph Mccarty

Open Access Theses

The present study formalizes and quantifies the importance of uncertainty for investment in a corn-stover based cellulosic biofuel plant. Using a real options model we recover prices of gasoline that would trigger entry into the market and calculate the portion of that entry trigger price required to cover cost and the portion that corresponds to risk premium. We then discuss the effect of managerial flexibility on the entry risk premium and the prices of gasoline that would trigger mothballing, reactivation, and exit. Results show that the risk premium required by plants to enter the second-generation biofuel market is likely to …

How Do Various Maize Crop Models Vary In Their Responses To Climate Change Factors?, Simon Bassu, Nadine Brisson, Jean-Louis Durand, Kenneth J. Boote, Jon Lizaso, James Jones, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Alex Ruane, Myriam Adam, Christian Baron, Bruno Basso, Christian Biernath, Hendrick Boogaard, Sjaak Conijn, Marc Corbeels, Delphine Deryng, Giacomo De Sanctis, Sebastian Gayler, Patricio Grassini, Jerry Hatfield, Steven Hoek, Cesar Izaurralde, Raymond Jongschaap, Armen Kemanian, Christian Kersebaum, Soo-Hyung Kim, Naresh Kumar, David Makowski, Christoph Muller, Claas Nendel, Eckart Priesack, Maria Virinia Pravia, Federico Sau, Iurii Shcherbak, Fulu Tao, Edmar Teixeira, Dennis Timlin, Katharina Waha

Department of Agronomy and Horticulture: Faculty Publications

Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide …

Estimation Of Watershed Nitrate Loads On Drained Agricultural Lands, Yan Jiang

Open Access Theses

Estimation of nutrient load is critical for many applications in water quality management; however, infrequent data monitoring and measurement error could raise considerable uncertainty in the load estimations. The objectives of this study were to quantify the overall uncertainty in annual nitrate-N load estimates, and develop a statistical model to predict nitrate loads based on subsurface drainage characteristics in Indiana watersheds. Nitrate was selected as the study object because of the high loads common in Midwestern streams, and its important influence on hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico.

A standard error propagation method was used to quantify the uncertainty from …

Modeling Of Biorefinery Supply Chain Economic Performance With Discrete Event Simulation, Joseph S. Amundson

Theses and Dissertations--Manufacturing Systems Engineering

As competition for fossil fuels accelerates, alternative sources of chemicals, fuels, and energy production become more appealing to researchers and the layman. Among the candidates to fill this growing niche is lignocellulosic biomass. Many researchers have examined supply chain design and optimization for biofuel and bioenergy production throughout the years. However, these models often fail to capture the variability and uncertainty inherent to the biomass supply chain. Multiple factors with high degrees of stochasticity can have major impacts on the performance of a biorefinery: weather, biomass quality, feedstock availability, and market demand for products are just a few. To begin …

Using Real Options Theory To Analyze The Impacts Of Urban Development On Farm Real Estate Markets, Tamer Işgin, D. Lynn Forster

Turkish Journal of Agriculture and Forestry

This paper assesses the real option values of farmland using data from Ohio, USA. The option value of delaying the sale of a farm property was measured using an emerging, relatively new theory namely, the theory of real options pricing. As opposed to standard corporate finance theory, this new theory incorporates both the uncertainty about the future net benefits of a selling decision and the irreversibility of this action taken. Results from this option value calculation show that the vast majority of real call option values calculated for this sample are greater than zero, suggesting that deferring the decision to …