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Targeting Rebates In The Water-Energy Nexus, Alvar Escriva-Bou, Manuel Pulido-Velazquez, Jay R. Lund 2016 Water Policy Center, Public Policy Institute of California

Targeting Rebates In The Water-Energy Nexus, Alvar Escriva-Bou, Manuel Pulido-Velazquez, Jay R. Lund

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Water conservation is often the most cost effective source of additional water supply for water stressed regions to maintain supply reliability with increasing population and/or demands, or shorter-term droughts. In previous research we demonstrated how including energy savings of conserved water can increase willingness to adopt conservation measures, at the same time that increases energy and GHG emissions savings. But the capacity to save water, energy and GHG emissions depends fundamentally in the economic benefits for customers and utilities.

Utilities have traditionally used rebates, subsidies or incentives to enhance water conservation. But the economic benefits originated by these rebates ...


Actor-Based System Dynamics Modelling Of Win-Win Climate Mitigation Options, Dmitry V. Kovalevsky, Klaus Hasselmann 2016 Nansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre (NIERSC), Saint Petersburg State University

Actor-Based System Dynamics Modelling Of Win-Win Climate Mitigation Options, Dmitry V. Kovalevsky, Klaus Hasselmann

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The actor-based system dynamics approach to Integrated Assessment modelling (IAM), seen as further development of ‘traditional’ system dynamics economic modelling, however with a stronger emphasis on describing the decision making of key aggregate economics actors, is a promising methodology for developing the comprehensive IAMs of next generations. The present paper is focused on application of actor-based system dynamics models to identification and assessment of win-win opportunities of climate mitigation policies. Modelling results outlined suggest that in a multi-country world properly designed climate mitigation policies can unite rather than divide different nations, therefore putting under question the ‘juggernaut’ of much discussed ...


Rural Livelihood, Biodiversity And Carbon Stock In Vietnam Mountains: Agent-Based Modeling To Anticipate Trade-Offs, Quang Bao Le 2016 CGIAR Research Program on Dryland Systems, c/o International Center for Agricultural Research in Dry Areas (ICARDA)

Rural Livelihood, Biodiversity And Carbon Stock In Vietnam Mountains: Agent-Based Modeling To Anticipate Trade-Offs, Quang Bao Le

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Assessment of future multiple ecosystem services driven by alternative land-use policies is useful for supporting decisions about what and where to invest for the best overall environmental and developmental outcomes. The task faces a great challenge due to the inherent complexity of human- landscape systems and trade-offs between rural livelihood improvement, biodiversity conservation and carbon sequestration. Agent-based system models have been recognized to be well suited to simulate the co-evolutions of the community and landscape systems in response to policy interventions. The study applies the Land Use Dynamics Simulator (LUDAS) framework to a mountain watershed in central Vietnam for anticipating ...


Spatial Evolution Of Urban Fabrics Extracted From Spatiotemporal Topographic Database Using Symbolic Dynamic Time Warping, Pierre Gançarski, Anne Puissant, François Petitjean 2016 University of Strasbourg

Spatial Evolution Of Urban Fabrics Extracted From Spatiotemporal Topographic Database Using Symbolic Dynamic Time Warping, Pierre Gançarski, Anne Puissant, François Petitjean

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This article introduces a new methodology dedicated to extracting the evolution of urban blocks from spatiotemporal topographic databases where an urban block is defined as the smallest area that is surrounded by communication network. To achieve this analysis, we apply the ascendant hierarchical clustering to sequences of urban block states (i.e.; sequences of class labels to which the block belongs to on each date). The principal originality of this approach is to use a measure based on DTW (Dynamic Time Warping) which is able to apprehend temporal behaviours (mainly time lags in dates corresponding to a change of state ...


Creating Best Bathymetry Using The Iqmulus High Volume Fusion And Analysis Platform For Geospatial Point Clouds, Quillon Harpham, Jennifer Herbert, Vibeke Skytt 2016 HR Wallingford UK

Creating Best Bathymetry Using The Iqmulus High Volume Fusion And Analysis Platform For Geospatial Point Clouds, Quillon Harpham, Jennifer Herbert, Vibeke Skytt

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

New data acquisition techniques are emerging and are providing a fast and efficient means for multidimensional spatial data collection. Single and multi-beam echo-sounders, airborne LIDAR, SAR satellites and mobile mapping systems are increasingly used for the digital reconstruction of the environment. All these systems provide point clouds, often enriched with other sensor data providing extremely high volumes of raw data. With these acquisition approaches, a great deal of data is collected, but it often requires harmonisation and integration before reaching its maximum use potential. For use in modelling waves and flow in seas and oceans, collections of surveys of water ...


Smart Meter Enabled Dynamic Pricing Of Water, Charles Rougé, Julien Harou, Paola Garrone, Manuel Pulido-Velazquez, Riccardo Marzano, Matteo Giuliani, Andrea Cominola, Antonio Lopez-Nicolas, Andrea Castelleti, Andrea-Emilio Rizzoli 2016 University of Manchester

Smart Meter Enabled Dynamic Pricing Of Water, Charles Rougé, Julien Harou, Paola Garrone, Manuel Pulido-Velazquez, Riccardo Marzano, Matteo Giuliani, Andrea Cominola, Antonio Lopez-Nicolas, Andrea Castelleti, Andrea-Emilio Rizzoli

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The advent of smart metering is set to revolutionize many aspects of the relationship between water utilities and their customers. Smart-metered data supports enhanced customer interaction, enables linking to social media and paves the way for dynamic tariffs (prices that change over time). For dynamic pricing, metering must have sufficiently high frequency and enable billing users individually; smart metering enables this. Dynamic tariffs aim to either reduce demand or shift it in time and can be designed for revenue neutrality with the wider aim of increasing economic, social or environmental benefits. Two dynamic water pricing schemes are described here: scarcity ...


Development And Evaluation Of A Parsimonious Agro-Hydrological Model To Assess Agricultural Managements Strategies For Climate Change Adaptation, H. Van Gaelen, E. Vanuytrecht, P. Willems, J. Diels, D. Raes 2016 KU Leuven – University of Leuven

Development And Evaluation Of A Parsimonious Agro-Hydrological Model To Assess Agricultural Managements Strategies For Climate Change Adaptation, H. Van Gaelen, E. Vanuytrecht, P. Willems, J. Diels, D. Raes

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

While simple crop and hydrological models are limited with respect to the number and accuracy of the processes they incorporate, complex models have high demand for data. Due to these limitations, there is a need for new agro-hydrological models that can simulate the impact of agronomic and environmental changes on both crop productivity and water availability in agricultural catchments, without vast data requirements for model input and calibration. AquaCrop-Hydro was developed to fill the need for a such a parsimonious, physically sound and widely applicable agro- hydrological model. The model was developed by linking the process-based AquaCrop crop water productivity ...


A Simple Integrated Assessment Approach To Global Change Simulation And Evaluation, K. B. Z. Ogutu, F. D’Andrea, M. Ghil 2016 Dedan Kimathi University of Technology, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), Ecole Normale Supérieure

A Simple Integrated Assessment Approach To Global Change Simulation And Evaluation, K. B. Z. Ogutu, F. D’Andrea, M. Ghil

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

We further develop and study a Coupled Climate-Economy-Biosphere (CoCEB) model. This simple and highly idealized model constitutes the basis of our integrated assessment approach to simulating and evaluating global change. CoCEB is composed of a physical climate module, based on Earth’s energy balance, and an economy module that uses endogenous economic growth with physical and human capital accumulation. A biosphere model is likewise under study and will be coupled to the existing two modules. We concentrate on the interactions between the two subsystems: the effect of climate on the economy, via damage functions, and the effect of the economy ...


Challenges And Opportunities For Urban Decarbonization At The Global Scale, Roger Cremades 2016 Climate Service Center Germany, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht

Challenges And Opportunities For Urban Decarbonization At The Global Scale, Roger Cremades

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Urban areas emit roughly three quarters of global carbon emissions. Cities are crucial elements for a decarbonized society, however, there is not a framework to analyse cities at the global scale. Supervised machine learning from remote sensing provides information about human settlements from 4 dates (1974, 1990, 2000 and 2014), allowing the creation of the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) which jointly with the Gridded Population of the World (GPW) provides the basis for this study. This dynamic evolution of 250 metre sided cells and its population at the global scale gives an unprecedented opportunity to analyse a backbone of ...


Profiling Residential Water Users’ Routines By Eigenbehavior Modelling, A. Cominola, A. Moro, L. Riva, M. Giuliani, A. Castelleti 2016 Politecnico di Milano

Profiling Residential Water Users’ Routines By Eigenbehavior Modelling, A. Cominola, A. Moro, L. Riva, M. Giuliani, A. Castelleti

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Developing effective demand-side management strategies is essential to meet future residential water demands, pursue water conservation, and reduce the costs for water utilities. The effectiveness of water demand management strategies relies on our understanding of water consumers’ behavior and their consumption habits and routines, which can be monitored through the deployment of smart metering technologies and the adoption of data analytics and machine learning techniques. This work contributes a novel modeling procedure, based on a combination of clustering and principal component analysis, which allows performing water users’ segmentation on the basis of their eigenbehaviors (i.e., recurrent water consumption behaviors ...


Using Bayesian Networks To Evaluate The Vulnerability Of Smallholder Farmers In Increasingly Globalized Markets, Victoria Junquera, Adrienne Grêt-Regamey 2016 ETH Zurich, Institute for Landscape and Spatial Development, Planning of Landscape and Urban Systems (PLUS)

Using Bayesian Networks To Evaluate The Vulnerability Of Smallholder Farmers In Increasingly Globalized Markets, Victoria Junquera, Adrienne Grêt-Regamey

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Agricultural systems in northern Laos are undergoing a rapid transformation from subsistence-based to increasingly export-oriented production of cash crops such as rubber, banana, and sugarcane, with important consequences for local livelihoods and ecosystem services. Our work aims first to identify the drivers of these land use and land cover (LULC) changes, and in turn to understand the impact of such changes on livelihood vulnerability. We define the vulnerability of the local system (in this case the village) in terms of its exposure and sensitivity to stress, as well as its resilience, i.e., its capacity to cope with the stress ...


Quantile Regression Ensemble For Summer Temperatures Time Series And Its Impact On Built Environment Studies, Manuel Herrera, Matthew Eames, Alfonso Ramallo-Gonzalez, Chunde Liu, David Coley 2016 University of Bath

Quantile Regression Ensemble For Summer Temperatures Time Series And Its Impact On Built Environment Studies, Manuel Herrera, Matthew Eames, Alfonso Ramallo-Gonzalez, Chunde Liu, David Coley

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The occurrence of heat waves, heavy rainfall, or drought periods have an increasing trend nowadays as consequence of Earths global warming. This seriously affects natural habitats and directly impacts on the human environment. Architects and engineers use different approaches to model reference and future weather conditions to achieve building designs that resilient and energy efficient. However, modelling extreme weather events within those future conditions is a relative few explored field. This paper introduces the analysis of regression models for summer temperature time series that facilitate the representation of those extreme events; this is based on upper and lower quantiles, instead ...


Systems Approach To Link Big Socio-Ecological Geo-Data To Food Systems Sustainability, Quang Bao Le, Chandrashekhar Biradar, Enrico Bonaiuti, Richard Thomas 2016 CGIAR Research Program on Dryland Systems, c/o International Center for Agricultural Research in Dry Areas (ICARDA)

Systems Approach To Link Big Socio-Ecological Geo-Data To Food Systems Sustainability, Quang Bao Le, Chandrashekhar Biradar, Enrico Bonaiuti, Richard Thomas

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Rapid development of multi-dimensionally, multi-scale, timely updated socio-ecological geo-data presents an opportunity as potential information resource for supporting effective decision- making of stakeholders involved with food systems, from daily routines of individuals to strategic decisions of manager and policy-makers. However, the use of this type of big data toward supporting the sustainability of food systems at different scales still fall short of (i) what information commonly needed by food system actors to response and adapt to socio-ecological change and enhance the system performance, (ii) interoperability between different types of data across scales, and (iii) sufficient guidance to utilize big data ...


Land Use Change Effects Of Oil Palm Expansion On Ecosystem Services In Tapi River Basin, Thailand, Kanokwan Saswattecha, Lars Hein, Carolien Kroeze, Warit Jawjit 2016 The Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University Research

Land Use Change Effects Of Oil Palm Expansion On Ecosystem Services In Tapi River Basin, Thailand, Kanokwan Saswattecha, Lars Hein, Carolien Kroeze, Warit Jawjit

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The last decades have shown a strong increase in oil palm production in Thailand. This is increasingly leading to land conversion including loss of forest habitat. However the specific direct and indirect land use effects of oil palm expansion in Thailand are as yet insufficiently understood. We selected the Tapi river Basin and model land use change caused by oil palm expansion. We analysed both direct and indirect land use change effects, using spatial analysis in ArcGIS 10.0 in combination with farmer interviews. Our analysis shows that in the first decade after 2000, direct-land-use-change (dLUC) amounted to 102,000 ...


Improving Evapotranspiration Simulation In Swat Using Remote Sensing, A. Teklesadik, A. van Griensven, Tadesse Alemayehu, W. G.M. Bastiaanssen 2016 Vrije Universiteit Brussel

Improving Evapotranspiration Simulation In Swat Using Remote Sensing, A. Teklesadik, A. Van Griensven, Tadesse Alemayehu, W. G.M. Bastiaanssen

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Evapotranspiration (ET) is the main hydrological component besides precipitation, but evapotranspiration calculations in hydrological models are poorly validated. In our study, we used an ensemble of monthly ET estimations derived from remote sensing (RS) obtained from ALEXI, MODIS ,CMRSET and SSEBOP RS models, as a reference for evaluating ET simulation results from SWAT in the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBN). A comparison indicates that SWAT ET estimation is lower than the ensemble mean RS-ET estimations during dry season, where as for the wet season simulated SWAT ET is comparable with RS ET. These results indicate an underestimation of vegetation transpiration ...


Multi-Dimensional Hydraulic Coupling For Flood Forecasting, S. Barthélémy, S. Ricci, N. Goutal, T. Morel, E. Le Pape 2016 CECI, CNRS-CERFACS

Multi-Dimensional Hydraulic Coupling For Flood Forecasting, S. Barthélémy, S. Ricci, N. Goutal, T. Morel, E. Le Pape

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In the context of hydrodynamic modelling the use of 2D models is of fundamental importance in areas where the flow is not mono-dimensional. Nonetheless, the lack of bathymetric data to develop a global 2D model over an entire network or the computational cost of a global 2D model can be prohibitive for operational flood forecasting services. To overcome this limitation a solution is to use multi-dimensional coupling with the use of 1D models where the flow is mono- dimensional and the use of 2D models when needed. Multi-dimensional coupling allows for the use of a global hydrodynamic 1D/2D model ...


Measuring Household Vulnerability: A Fuzzy Approach, Gautam Sethi, Molly Gilligan, Amy Richmond 2016 Bard Center for Environmental Policy

Measuring Household Vulnerability: A Fuzzy Approach, Gautam Sethi, Molly Gilligan, Amy Richmond

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This research develops an index of vulnerability for Ugandan households using a variety of economic, social and environmental variables with two objectives. First, there is only a small body of research that measures household vulnerability. Given the stresses faced by households susceptible to water, environment, food, livelihood, energy, and health security concerns, it is critical that they be identified in order to make effective policy. We draw on the socio-ecological systems (SES) framework described by Ostrom (2009) and adapt the model developed by from Giupponi, Giove, and Giannini (2013) to develop a composite measure. Second, most indices in the literature ...


Data-Driven Rainfall/Runoff Modelling Based On A Neuro-Fuzzy Inferential System, N. Bartoletti, F. Casagli, S. Marsili-Libelli, A. Nardi, A. Oliva, L. Palandri 2016 University of Florence

Data-Driven Rainfall/Runoff Modelling Based On A Neuro-Fuzzy Inferential System, N. Bartoletti, F. Casagli, S. Marsili-Libelli, A. Nardi, A. Oliva, L. Palandri

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The development of rainfall/runoff models may involve extensive computation and differing platforms, including GIS. In this paper we present a simple data-driven approach which avoids the use of GIS, but is based on a combination of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and an Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) to produce a simple and effective output flow prediction based on previous rainfall/runoff data. Given the ANFIS internal complexity, the emphasis of the paper is on how to set-up the most representative and parsimonious data structure that produces an efficient output flow estimation. In the preliminary data reduction stage, the ...


Big Data In Environmental And Human Health Risk Assessment: Opportunities And Challenges, Vikas Kumar 2016 Universitat Rovira i Virgili

Big Data In Environmental And Human Health Risk Assessment: Opportunities And Challenges, Vikas Kumar

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Big Data is broad term for large data sets arriving from multiple sources with typological and structural complexities which presents integrational, analytical and visualization challenge to extract meaningful information. In the human health risk assessment, the amount of data is exploding from basic science to clinically based omics, High Throughput Screening (HTS) to biosensors, large scale biomonitoring to multigenerational individual and population based studies. The scattered “Big Data” captures the opportunities as well as challenges in accessing, integrating, managing and analysing the datasets of diverse data types. The aim of this study is to perform a systematic review of the ...


Comparison Of Parametric And Non-Parametric Disaggregation Models For The Top-Down Generation Of Water Demand Time Series, S. Alvisi, N. Ansaloni, M. Franchini 2016 University of Ferrara

Comparison Of Parametric And Non-Parametric Disaggregation Models For The Top-Down Generation Of Water Demand Time Series, S. Alvisi, N. Ansaloni, M. Franchini

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This study presents a “top-down” procedure for generating synthetic time series of hourly nodal water demands from time series of the total water demands in the area that includes the nodes considered, based on the application of disaggregation models already presented in the literature in the field of hydrology. More specifically, a parametric and a nonparametric disaggregation model are compared to assess their performance in reproducing, on a nodal level, the main statistics of the time series of historically observed water demands. Moreover, with regard to the nonparametric model, two variants of the original formulation are proposed with the aim ...


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